Methanol: Methanol market continues to rise, market mentality is cautious

On June 30th, the methanol market price index was 1990.45, up 48.8% from yesterday and 2.51% from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on June 29:

China's CFR ranges from US $246 to US $252 per ton, up US $3 per ton

European FOB 207209EUR / ton, flat

Us FOB 72-74 cents per gallon, flat

CFR in Southeast Asia is US $289-291 / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 1960-2000, South: 1760-1770 (0), North: 1850-1860 (0), Lunan: 2100 (0), Henan: 2010-2030 (10), Shanxi: 1960-2030 (90), Port: 2165,2170 (80)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 180-280 (0ax 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 230-310 (0max 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 120-160 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 150-190 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the price of methanol market rose widely, methanol futures fluctuated, the spot price of the port adjusted with the market, the purchase of gas was not good, the news of equipment overhaul and restart came out frequently in the Chinese market, the attitude of the operators was cautious, and the transaction maintained rigid demand. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are stable and small. The quotations on the central and southern routes are around 1760-1770 yuan / ton, while those on the northern line are 1850-1860 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday. At present, affected by the rising futures market, the trading atmosphere in the market has improved, and the gap-filling transaction is mainly done. In the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the operation of the equipment in the field. Guanzhong region market prices rose sharply, today's market quotation around 1960-2000 yuan / ton, the low end increased by 120 yuan / ton, the market transaction atmosphere is general. Consumer market prices rose partially, of which southern Shandong quoted 2100 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday, northern Shandong quoted 2100 yuan / ton, the low end raised 80 yuan / ton, the wait-and-see mood still exists, downstream delivery is more cautious. The bidding price in today's market revolves around 2090-2100 yuan / ton, of which Shenchi chemical methanol bid price 2100 yuan / ton, Oriental Hualong 2090 yuan / ton. The market quotation in North China has been raised. Today, the market price in Shanxi is around 1960-2020 yuan / ton, the low end is raised by 90 yuan / ton, and the price in Hebei region is quoted at 2020-2060 yuan / ton, and the low end is raised by 50 yuan / ton. The current market atmosphere is general, maintaining rigid demand. Southwest market prices remain stable, Yungui quotation around 2030-2120 yuan / ton, Sichuan and Chongqing 1970-2050 yuan / ton, maintain yesterday, the current market attitude of more wait-and-see, the market transaction atmosphere is general.

Port market: today, methanol futures shock consolidation. Spot a small amount of rigid demand, paper goods arbitrage mainly, some unilateral higher than low, the basis is weak, the atmosphere is slightly deadlocked; in recent months, the exchange continues, the overall transaction is general. Taicang main port transaction price: 7 deal: 2175-2180, base difference 09: 1510: 7 transaction: 2190-2200, base difference 09: 30, transaction price: 2180-2200, basis difference: 09: 25 pound: 30: 9: 2195-2200, basis difference: 09: 25: 30

Future forecast: the recent raw material coal price shock operation, limited support for the cost side, the current plant maintenance and restart in the field, the overall supply is still abundant, but the late storage and maintenance plan of some devices in the Chinese market, coupled with the parking news of individual international devices, the market supply or storage is expected to be reduced, from the demand side, the traditional downstream part of the enterprise storage device start-up and load enhancement plan, superimposed MTO demand slowly increase The demand margin is expected to improve. At present, the macro performance is OK, the marginal storage of methanol supply and demand is expected to improve, the attitude of operators is still cautious, hold a wait-and-see mood for the future, and the short-term methanol market price is expected to rebound within a narrow range. In the later stage, we also need to pay attention to crude oil, coal prices and the operation of the plant in the field.