Methanol: Futures market strength pulled higher, market sentiment improved

On June 29th, the methanol market price index was 1941.65, up 26.9% from yesterday, up 1.40% from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on June 28:

China CFR 243,245USD / ton, Ping

European FOB 207209euros / ton, down 5 euros / ton

Us FOB 72-74 cents per gallon, down 1 cent per gallon

Southeast Asian CFR 289-291 US dollars / ton, down 2 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 1840-1880 (0), South Line: 1760-1770 (0), North Line: 1850-1860 (110), Lunan: 2100 (80), Henan: 2000-2075 (50), Shanxi: 1870-2075 (20), Port: 2085-2110 (5)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 180-280 (20ax 10), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 230-310 (10ax 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 120-160 (0ax 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 150-190 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, methanol market prices rose in a wide range, the futures market continued to rise, the macro positive support market sentiment has improved, the basis is strong, the port spot shipment willingness is high, but the gas purchase is limited, and transactions are positive in some parts of the Chinese market. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas have risen, and the quotation on the central and southern line revolves around 1760-1770 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday, the northern line quoted 1850-1860 yuan / ton, and the low end was raised by 110yuan / ton. at present, affected by the rising futures market, the trading atmosphere in the market has improved, and some enterprises have raised their quotations for shipment. the main thing is to fill the gap, and we need to pay attention to the operation of the equipment in the field in the later stage. The market price in Guanzhong region is stable, and today's market quotation revolves around 1840-1880 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, and the market transaction atmosphere is general. Shaanxi Changqing methanol secondary quotation has been raised: 2000 tons 2000 yuan / ton, more than 2000 tons less than 2010 yuan / ton. at present, the 600000-ton methanol plant in the plant is operating normally. Consumer market quotation rose, of which southern Shandong quoted 2100 yuan / ton, 80 yuan / ton higher than yesterday, northern Shandong quoted 2020-2050 yuan / ton, low-end stability, market operators still wait-and-see mood, downstream delivery more cautious. The market quotation in North China has been raised, and the quotation in Shanxi region today revolves around 1870-1915 yuan / ton, with a low-end increase of 20 yuan / ton, while Hebei price is quoted at 1970-2000 yuan / ton, with a low-end increase of 20 yuan / tonne. The current market atmosphere is general and rigid demand is maintained. Southwest market prices remain stable, Yungui quotation around 2030-2120 yuan / ton, Sichuan and Chongqing 1970-2050 yuan / ton, maintain yesterday, the current market attitude of more wait-and-see, the market transaction atmosphere is general.

Port market: methanol futures fell slightly after consolidation today. The paper part of the shipment is high, the arbitrage offer is positive, the current purchase is the main, the basis is weak, and the monthly difference between far and near is widening. The overall transaction volume is small. Taicang main port transaction price: 6 lower transaction price: 2140-2180, base difference 09: 0 prime position 15: 7 transaction: 2160-2185, base difference 09: 15 pound 25 position 7 transaction price: 2175-2210, base difference 09: 35 lead 40: 8 transaction: 2185-2195, basis 09: 30, margin 35: 9, basis: 2180, base difference 09: 30.

Future forecast: supply: recent plant maintenance and restart in the field, the overall supply has not been significantly reduced, coupled with the port inventory performance in the week, but considering that after entering July, Inner Mongolia Shilin, Inner Mongolia Xinao, Shaanxi Shenmu, Shaanxi Lean, Shaanxi Changqing all have maintenance plans, and the market supply in Northwest China is expected to be reduced. In the later stage, we should also pay attention to the implementation of the equipment maintenance and the impact of the power restriction policy in the southwest region on the equipment in the field as the weather turns hot. On the demand side: the recent rebound in methanol prices has supported the downstream market to stop falling and stabilized. however, due to the impact of the consumption off-season and high temperature weather, the traditional downstream demand is difficult to boost, coupled with the slow increase in methanol-to-olefin demand, and the marginal improvement of demand is limited in the short term. At present, the macro good news supports the methanol market, and the turnover in the Chinese market is relatively positive, but the cost and fundamental performance is still general, the attitude of the operators is cautious, and they still hold more wait-and-see sentiment towards the future market. It is expected that the short-term methanol market price will be mainly arranged in a narrow range, and in the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the crude oil and coal prices and the operation of the plant in the field.