Methanol: The methanol market rose slightly and the transaction atmosphere was general

On June 28th, the methanol market price index was 1914.75, up 14.58 from yesterday, up 0.77% from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on June 27:

China CFR 243,247 US dollars / ton, up 8 US dollars / ton

European FOB 212-214euros / ton, down 7 euros / ton

Us FOB 73-75 cents per gallon, down 1 cent per gallon

Southeast Asia CFR 291-293 US dollars / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 1840-1850 (0), South: 1760-1770 (40), North: 1740-1760 (0), Lunan: 2020 (60), Henan: 1950-1970 (40), Shanxi: 1850-1970 (- 20), Port: 20802105 (5)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 160-270 (0ram 10), South Line-North Shandong 220-310 (0ram 0), Shanxi-North Shandong 120-160 (0ram 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 150-190 (- 20 Universe 10)

Spot market: today, the methanol market continued to rise slightly, the futures market maintained a volatile trend, the mentality of some operators in the market improved, and there were maintenance plans for some of the equipment in the market, and under the expectation of a reduction in supply in some areas, the trading atmosphere in the market was slightly better than that in the previous period, and the spot quotation of the port was adjusted with the market, and the basis was obviously stronger. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas is stable and small. The quotation for the central and southern line is around 1760-1770 yuan / ton, the low end is raised by 40 yuan / ton, and the northern line is quoted at 1740-1760 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday. At present, part of the equipment in the field is planned to be overhauled, and some enterprises have raised their quotations for shipment. the transaction is general, and we need to pay attention to the operation of the equipment in the field in the later stage. Guanzhong region market prices remain stable, today's market quotation around 1840-1850 yuan / ton, maintain yesterday, the market transaction atmosphere is general. Consumer market quotation rose, of which southern Shandong quoted 2020 yuan / ton, 80 yuan / ton higher than yesterday, northern Shandong quoted 2020-2050 yuan / ton, low-end stability, market operators still wait-and-see mood, downstream delivery more cautious. The market quotation in North China has been partially lowered. The market quotation in Shanxi today revolves around 1850-1915 yuan / ton, and the lower end is reduced by 20 yuan / ton. The price in Hebei region is quoted at 1950 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday's general market atmosphere. Downstream rigid demand for replenishment. Market prices in southwest China are mixed. Yungui quotation revolves around 2030-2120 yuan / ton, with a low-end reduction of 30 yuan / ton, Sichuan and Chongqing 1970-2050 yuan / ton, and a low-end increase of 70 yuan / ton. at present, the mindset of market operators is more wait-and-see, and the market transaction atmosphere is general.

Port market: methanol futures rebounded after falling today. During the month, there is a rigid demand for replenishment, and some of them go up unilaterally. Long-term buying active follow-up, forward arbitrage mainly, the basis of strong pursuit is obvious. Buy gas after trading and continue to improve. The overall transaction is active. Taicang main port transaction price: 6 lower transaction price: 2085-2110, base difference 09 / 9 / 15 / 20 / 20 / 7 / 7 / deal: 2120, margin / 09 / 20 / 20 / 7 / deal: 2100 / 2125, basis / 09 / 25 / 25 / 40 / 8 / 8 / deal: 2095 / 2125 / 09 / 25 / 35 / 9 / 9: 2100 / 21 / 20, basis / 09 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20 / 20

Future forecast: on the supply side: the recent on-site equipment is in the alternating process of overhaul and restart, the overall market supply performance is relatively abundant, and the market inventory in the port area during the week is affected by the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, and the market pick-up volume has decreased. Coupled with a reduction in some downstream demand, the total amount of port inventory has increased compared with the previous period, but considering that after July, there are maintenance plans for some installations in Northwest China. Local market supply is expected to be reduced, and in the later stage, attention should be paid to the implementation of equipment maintenance and the impact of the power restriction policy in the southwest region on the plant in the future. On the demand side: with the continuous reduction of methanol prices, the profits of downstream olefin enterprises have been repaired, and some olefin enterprises have extracted methanol from outside, and the terminal demand is slowly increasing, but considering that the traditional downstream is in the off-season of consumption, it is less likely to increase demand in the short term. At present, coal prices are weak and stable, and the cost support is limited. Although methanol prices have been raised recently, operators still hold wait-and-see sentiment towards the future market, with general enthusiasm for entering the market, and solid single continuation of rigid demand. It is expected that the short-term methanol market price will be mainly arranged in a narrow range, and in the later stage, we should also pay attention to crude oil, coal prices and the operation of the plant in the field.