Gasoline (20230628): The price increase is approaching, and the market's bearish sentiment remains unchanged

Gasoline: price limit is approaching, market bearishness continues unabated

International crude oil closed

 

Date	Market	Specifications	Close (US dollars / barrel)	Rise and fall
20230627	America	WTI	67.7	-1.67
20230627	The United Kingdom	Brent	72.26	-1.92

 

Gasoline price index

On June 28, China's gasoline price index fell 16.83, or 0.19%, to 8656.59, while China's gasoline price index fell 17.23, or 0.19%, to 8978.42. The 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index were both downgraded, and the price difference between the 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index was 321.83.

 

Gasoline market analysis:

Today, the wholesale price of gasoline in China has been sorted out. Among them, high-end gasoline prices in North China have increased by 20 yuan per ton, while those in South and East China have been reduced by 30-100 yuan per ton, mostly concentrated in high prices. The price of gasoline in southwest China fell by 50 yuan per ton. Gasoline prices in other areas are stable for the time being. The ex-factory price of Geolian fell in a narrow range, while gasoline in Shandong, North China, Central China and East China fell by 20-60 yuan per ton. Gasoline prices in Northeast China are relatively stable. At present, the turnover of China's gasoline market continues to be dull, the purchase frequency of downstream traders is low, and the large order is few, and the stock is mainly eliminated. The delivery speed of the refinery is slow, the sales volume is lower than expected, and there is a little fatigue. On the whole, the market performance is poor, and the wait-and-see atmosphere still exists.

 

June 28 main wholesale price of gasoline (yuan / ton)
Area	Gasoline model	Price 6.27	Price 6.28	Rise and fall
North China region	92#	8500-8880	8500-8900	0/20
	95#	8700-9080	8700-9100	0/20
South China	92#	8650-9250	8650-9150	0/-100
	95#	8950-9550	8950-9450	0/-100
Central China	92#	8550-8800	8550-8800	0/0
	95#	8750-9000	8750-9000	0/0
East China region	92#	8500-8930	8500-8900	0/-30
	95#	8700-9110	8700-9050	0/-60
Northwestern region	92#	8400-9520	8400-9520	0/0
	95#	8600-10080	8600-10080	0/0
Southwest China	92#	8750-9050	8700-9100	-50/0
	95#	9000-9550	9000-9550	0/0
Northeast China	92#	8500-8720	8500-8720	0/0
	95#	8800-9150	8800-9150	0/0

 

June 28 gasoline refinery ex-factory price (yuan / ton)
Area	Gasoline model	Price 6.27	Price 6.28	Rise and fall
Shandong area	92#	8330-8600	8300-8540	-30/-60
	95#	8430-8820	8400-8780	-30/-40
North China region	92#	8450-8480	8400-8440	-50/-40
	95#	8550-8580	8550-8580	-50/-40
Central China	92#	8550-8550	8520-8520	-30/-30
	95#	8750-8750	8720-8720	-30/-30
East China region	92#	8380-8530	8360-8500	-20/-30
	95#	8530-8680	8510-8650	-20/-30
Northwestern region	92#	8350-8400	8350-8400	0/0
	95#	8650-8600	8650-8600	0/0
Northeast China	92#	8500-8500	8500-8500	0/0
	95#	8700-8700	8700-8700	0/0

 

Future forecast

From the perspective of international crude oil, the president of the European Central Bank said that the cycle of raising interest rates will not end in the short term, international oil prices will be dragged down by fears of raising interest rates, and crude oil futures prices will fall, which is a negative guide for China's gasoline market. Oil products are expected to rise clearly, and the price adjustment window will open at 24:00 this evening, but the positive news has not improved the market, and the bearish sentiment in the terminal continues unabated. Superimposed part of the sales unit delivery is still under pressure, the price is not enough. Taken together, it is expected that China's gasoline market will be weak in the short term.

 

 

Maximum retail price list of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities

Since 24:00 on June 13, 2023, the prices of gasoline and diesel in China (standard products, the same below) will be reduced by 55 yuan and 50 yuan per ton, respectively. After the adjustment, the maximum retail prices of gasoline and diesel in all provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) and central cities are shown in the attached table. The date of the price adjustment will be 24:00 on June 13, 2023, the 10th working day in China since the price adjustment was announced by the National Development and Reform Commission.

 

Schedule

Maximum retail price of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities

Unit: yuan / ton

	I. areas with one province and one price
	Gasoline (standard)	Diesel oil (standard)
Beijing	9320	8300
Tianjin	9285	8265
Hebei Province	9285	8265
Shanxi province	9355	8320
Liaoning province	9285	8265
Jilin Province	9285	8265
Heilongjiang province	9285	8265
Shanghai	9300	8270
Jiangsu Province	9340	8305
Zhejiang Province	9340	8320
Anhui province	9335	8315
Fujian Province	9360	8330
Jiangxi province	9340	8325
Shandong province	9295	8275
Hubei province	9310	8290
Hunan Province	9350	8350
Henan province	9305	8285
Hainan province	9430	8400
Chongqing	9500	8475
Guangdong province	9365	8335
Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region	9430	8400
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region	9290	8265
Gansu province	9270	8285
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region	9065	8160
II. Areas with one province and one price will not be implemented for the time being
	Gasoline (standard)	Diesel oil (standard)
Hohhot	9300	8280
Chengdu city	9505	8500
Guiyang city	9465	8425
Kunming City	9495	8455
Xi'an city	9270	8275
Xining City	9250	8310

                                                                

Note: 1. The prices in the table include consumption tax, value-added tax, urban construction tax and additional education fees.

2. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil in the table are in line with the compulsory national standards of VIA and Ⅵ in the sixth stage.

3. The sixth stage standard of gasoline and diesel is gasoline and No. 0 vehicle diesel respectively.

4. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil that meet the quality standards of the sixth stage for the national reserve and the Xinjiang production and Construction Corps are 8555 yuan and 7535 yuan per ton respectively, and other relevant oil price policies shall be implemented in accordance with the provisions of the measures for Oil Price Management.