Methanol: The methanol period is now rising simultaneously and the transaction atmosphere in the Chinese market has improved

On June 27th, the methanol market price index was 1900.17, up 4.25 from yesterday, up 0.22% from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

June 26 methanol closed:

China CFR 235-240USD / ton, down US $4 / tonne

European FOB 219,221 euros / ton, up 1 euro / ton

Us FOB 74-76 cents per gallon, up 2 cents per gallon

Southeast Asian CFR 291-293 US dollars / ton, down 2 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 1840-1850 (40), South: 1720-1760 (0), North: 1740-1760 (10), Lunan: 1960 (0), Henan: 1900-1930 (- 30), Shanxi: 1870-1930 (0), Port: 20452070 (- 15)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 160-260 (0ax 0), South Line-North Shandong 220-310 (0max 0), Shanxi-North Shandong 120-160 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 170-200 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the spot market of methanol is arranged at a high level and the range of price fluctuation 10-90 yuan / ton, futures market volatility higher, the overall port spot negotiations are OK, the Chinese market gas buying follow-up, some enterprises trade order prices up, the transaction situation has improved slightly. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are stable and small, and the quotation on the central and southern line revolves around 1720-1760 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday, while the price on the northern line is 1740-1760 yuan / ton, and the low end is raised by 10 yuan / ton. at present, there are both overhaul and restart of equipment in the field, and some enterprises have made active auctions, and the market atmosphere has improved. in the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the operation of the equipment in the field. Guanzhong region market prices increased, today's market quotation around 1840-1850 yuan / ton, the low end raised 40 yuan / ton, the market transaction atmosphere is general. Consumer market quotation rose, of which southern Shandong quoted 1960 yuan / ton, low-end stable, northern Shandong quoted price of 2020-2040 yuan / ton, low-end raised 80 yuan / ton, operators in the field operate cautiously, more wait and see. The market quotation in North China is stable and small. The quotation in Shanxi market today revolves around 1870-1920 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday, the price in Hebei region was quoted at 1950 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, the current market atmosphere is general, and the industry lacks confidence in the future. Market prices in southwest China have been partially reduced, with Yungui quotation around 2060-2100 yuan / ton, low-end price reduction of 10 yuan / ton, and Sichuan and Chongqing 1900-2050 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday. At present, the mindset of market operators is more wait-and-see, and the market transaction atmosphere is general.

Port market: today, methanol futures rose after consolidation. During the month, every high shipment is dominated by arbitrage buying; forward arbitrage talks with exchange negotiations are in the majority, and the basis is weaker; afternoon talks are reduced and the basis is stable. The overall transaction is active. Taicang main port transaction price: 6 lower transaction price: 2075-2105, base difference 09: 5Universe 15 position 7 transaction: 2080-2095, base difference 09: 5Universe 15 position 7 transaction: 2090, base difference 09: 10 political 7 transaction: 2080-2115, base difference 09: 20 lead 25asset 8 transaction: 2080-2120, base difference 09: 20pm 25x 9: 2105, basis 09: 30.

Future forecast: in the near future, the raw material coal price is weak, and the cost support is limited, but the futures market fluctuates upward, the mentality of the operators in the market is slightly supported, and the trading atmosphere in the Chinese market is slightly improved. In terms of the fundamentals of methanol supply and demand, at present, methanol plant maintenance and restart are carried out alternately, and the overall supply is not significantly reduced, while the mood of replenishment downstream after the festival is generally, mainly on demand, although the demand for methanol to olefins has improved. However, the traditional downstream is affected by the high temperature Rain Water weather, the demand is still not ideal, some enterprises reduce the negative insurance price to continue the market, the marginal change of methanol supply and demand is relatively limited. At present, the macro mood is poor, the costs and fundamentals are not good for the time being, and the cautious mood of the operators in the market is still there. It is expected that the short-term methanol market price will be mainly arranged in a narrow range. In the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the crude oil, coal prices and the commissioning of the new plant.