Methanol: Futures market fluctuated and fell back. Chinese market performance was mixed

On June 26th, the methanol market price index was 1895.92, down 7.06 from yesterday, down 0.37% from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on June 23:

China CFR 239-245 US dollars / ton, up 4 US dollars / ton

European FOB 218,220 euros / ton, down 11 euros / ton

Us FOB 72-74 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asian CFR 293-295 US dollars / ton, down 5 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 1800-1850 (0), South: 1720-1760 (0), North: 1730-1780 (0), Lunan: 1960 (- 60), Henan: 1900-1930 (- 30), Shanxi: 1870-1930 (0), Port: 20452070 (- 15)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 160-260 (0ax 0), South Line-North Shandong 220-310 (0max 0), Shanxi-North Shandong 120-160 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 170-200 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the spot market of methanol is weak, and the price is reduced by up to 60% Yuan / ton, the macro side is not good support for the time being, the futures market fell back after the low shock, the basis is strong, the post-holiday Chinese market highlights the weak situation, a small amount of replenishment downstream, mainly wait-and-see, the overall trading atmosphere is general. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are stable, with the quotation for the southern route around 1720-1760 yuan / ton and the northern line for 1730-1780 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday. At present, the atmosphere in the post-holiday field has weakened, some factories have lowered their quotations, and the low level has made a good deal. In the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the operation of the equipment in the field. Guanzhong region market prices are stable, today's market quotation around 1800-1850 yuan / ton, maintain yesterday, the market transaction atmosphere is general. The price of the consumer market is lowered, including 1960 yuan / ton in southern Shandong, 60 yuan / ton in the low end, 1940-1960 yuan / ton in the north of Shandong province, and 60 yuan / ton in the low end. The bidding price in today's market revolves around 1940-1960 yuan / ton, Jincheng Petrochemical methanol bidding 1960 yuan / ton, Shenchi Chemical 1940 yuan / ton. The market quotation in North China is stable and small. The market quotation in Shanxi today revolves around 1870-1920 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday, the price in Hebei region was quoted at 1950-2000 yuan / ton, and the low-end price was reduced by 20 yuan / ton. at present, the market atmosphere is weak, and the attitude of operators is more wait-and-see. The market price in southwest China has been partially lowered, with Yungui quotation around 2070-2100 yuan / ton, low-end reduction of 10 yuan / ton, and Sichuan-Chongqing 1900-2050 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday. At present, the market industry is lack of confidence in the future, and the market transaction atmosphere is general.

Port market: methanol futures consolidated after falling today. Spot exchange and delivery, rigid demand follow-up; paper arbitrage delivery, unilateral bargain receiving is active, the basis is strong, the exchange train of thought continues; afternoon negotiations are reduced, the basis is strong. The overall transaction is active. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2045-2060, basis 09: 10, margin: 2045: 2070, margin: 09: 10, margin: 15: 7, transaction: 2045-2060, basis: 09: 10, margin: 2050: 2075, basis: 09: 20, margin: 30: 8: 2055-2075, basis: 09: 25, margin: 309: 2070, basis: 0935.

Future forecast: the recent raw material coal prices have weak support to the cost side, the macro mood is not good, and the market atmosphere has returned to calm after the festival. at present, there are equipment overhauling and restart in China. Inner Mongolia Yigao, Zhong'an United, Shaanxi Huangling overhauled as scheduled, but at the same time, the methanol plant in the early overhaul of Northwest Energy and extended China Coal gradually returned, and the overall supply in the field did not change significantly for the time being, from a demand point of view. The traditional downstream demand is general, but with the restart of the 300000-ton olefin plant in the west of Shandong Province, coupled with the extension of the 600000-ton olefin unit of China Coal, the short-term downstream demand may be improved. At present, the macro and cost support is limited, the marginal storage of methanol supply and demand is expected to improve, and the cautious sentiment of the operators in the market is still there. It is expected that the short-term methanol market price will be mainly arranged in a narrow range. In the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the crude oil, coal prices and the commissioning of the new plant.