Methanol: Poor demand performance Spot market quotes are mixed

On June 25, the methanol market price index was 1902.98, up 15.06 from the previous working day and 0.80% higher than the previous working day.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on June 23:

China CFR 239-245 US dollars / ton, up 4 US dollars / ton

European FOB 218,220 euros / ton, down 11 euros / ton

Us FOB 72-74 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asian CFR 293-295 US dollars / ton, down 5 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 1800-1850 (0), South: 1720-1760 (40), North: 1730-1780 (0), Lunan: 2020-2040 (40), Henan: 1950-1980 (20), Shanxi: 18701920 (100), Port: 20752095 (15)

Freight:

North Route-160-260 North Shandong (- 20 Uniqtel 10), South Route-North Shandong 220-310 (0 amp 0), Shanxi-North Shandong 120-160 (10 mer 10), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 170-200 (0max 10)

Spot market: today, there are no futures guidelines in the methanol market, spot prices rise and fall mutually, and the price volatility ranges from 10 to 100. Yuan / ton, Chinese methanol enterprises shipped better before the festival, more orders to be issued, returned downstream rigid demand procurement after the festival, some traders reduced the price of transfer orders, port spot small order negotiations, the overall transaction atmosphere is not good. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas is stable and small. The quotation for the central and southern line is around 1720-1760 yuan / ton, the low end is raised by 40 yuan / ton, and the northern line is quoted at 1730-1780 yuan / ton, maintaining the previous working day. The factory delivery pressure is not great after the holiday, and some production enterprises sell at a normal price. The transaction is general, and we need to pay attention to the operation of the equipment in the field in the later stage. The market price in Guanzhong area remains stable. Today's market quotation revolves around 1800-1850 yuan / ton, maintaining the previous working day, and the market transaction atmosphere is general. Among them, Shaanxi Changqing methanol quotation: 2000 tons quote 1900 yuan / ton, more than 2000 tons less than 1910 yuan / ton. At present, the 600000-ton methanol plant in the plant is operating normally. Prices in the consumer market are mixed, of which southern Shandong quotes 2020-2040 yuan / ton, the low end increases 40 yuan / ton, and northern Shandong quotes 2000-2030 yuan / ton. The low end is stable. Operators in the field operate cautiously and wait and see. The market quotation in North China has been partially raised, and the market quotation in Shanxi today revolves around 1870-1920 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, the price in Hebei region is quoted at 1970-2000 yuan / ton, the low end is raised by 120 yuan / ton, and the purchase of rigid demand downstream comes back after the festival. Market prices in southwest China are stable, with quotations of 2080-2100 yuan / ton for Yungui and 1900-2050 yuan / ton for Sichuan and Chongqing, maintaining the previous working day. At present, the market operators lack confidence in the future, and the market transaction atmosphere is general.

Port market: methanol futures are closed today. Unilateral shipment in the morning, purchase on demand, downward price center of gravity; afternoon atmosphere stalemate. Partial exchange is a deal. The overall turnover throughout the day was light. Taicang main Port transaction Price: spot order: 2060-2075, deal 6: 2055-2060, deal 7: 2060, deal 7, deal: 2070-2080.

The future forecast: the recent raw material coal price continues to be weak, the cost support weakens, and during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the international crude oil price falls sharply, and the pessimism of the operators in the field still exists. at present, there are both overhaul and restart of the plant in China. It is expected that Inner Mongolia Yigao, Inner Mongolia Shilin, Inner Mongolia Xinao Phase I, Shaanxi Huangling are expected to be overhauled, but at the same time, Jiutai New Materials and Xinjiang Yanzhou Mining methanol plant are gradually recovering. Coupled with the continuous commissioning of new units, the overall market supply performance is still abundant, but the downstream demand has not significantly improved. During the short holiday, some downstream factories shut down for holidays, superimposed by the impact of the traditional downstream off-season and rainy season, market start-up maintained a relatively level, and the demand for methanol-to-olefins grew slowly, and the short-term demand performance was difficult to improve. At present, the macro and cost performance is poor, coupled with the lack of obvious improvement in the fundamentals of methanol supply and demand, and the cautious mood of the operators in the field. It is expected that the price of methanol market will be weak and stable in the short term. In the later stage, we should also pay attention to the prices of crude oil and coal, as well as the commissioning of new units.