Methanol: The methanol market continues to rise and the transaction atmosphere is good

On June 21, the methanol market price index was 1887.92, up 14.83 from yesterday, up 0.79% from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on June 20:

China CFR 235-245USD / ton, up US $3 / tonne

European FOB 229,231 euros / ton, down 3 euros / ton

Us FOB 72-75 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asia CFR 298-300USD / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 1800-1850 (- 20), south route: 1680-1700 (0), north route: 1730-1780 (0), Lunan: 1980-2020 (0), Henan: 1950-1980 (20), Shanxi: 18701920 (100), port: 20752095 (15)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 200-270 (0ax 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 220-310 (0max 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 120-150 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 145-160 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, methanol spot market quotations continue to rise, up to a maximum of 100yuan / ton, futures market shock consolidation, some of the downstream active replenishment before the festival, the market transaction atmosphere is OK, but considering that the Chinese market is still in a situation where supply exceeds demand, cautious sentiment still exists in the market, specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are mixed, and the quotation of the central and southern line is around 1680-1700 yuan / ton. The northern line quotes 1730-1780 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday. At present, the equipment in the field is overhauled and restarted, some of the downstream before the festival is ready for operation, and the overall shipment of production enterprises has improved. Market prices in Guanzhong region fell narrowly. Today's market quotation revolves around 1800-1850 yuan / ton, and the low end is reduced by 20 yuan / ton. The market transaction atmosphere is general. The price of the consumer market rose partially, including 1980-2020 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2000-2030 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. The low end is stable, and operators in the market are cautious and wait-and-see around the holidays. The market quotation in North China has been partially raised. The market quotation in Shanxi today revolves around 1870-1920 yuan / ton, and the low-end price is raised by 100 yuan / ton. Hebei price is quoted at 1850-1980 yuan / ton, which is stable at the low end. At present, the atmosphere of entering the market downstream is relatively stable and the transaction is general. The market price in southwest China has been partially raised, with Yungui quotation around 2080-2100 yuan / ton, low-end increase of 60 yuan / ton, Sichuan and Chongqing 1900-2050 yuan / ton, low-end stability. At present, the market operators lack confidence in the future, and the market transaction atmosphere is general.

Port market: today, methanol futures shock consolidation. Spot rigid demand negotiations, positive late delivery; unilateral shipments in recent months, arbitrage buying follow-up; far-month arbitrage negotiations, some unilateral higher than low, morning basis slightly weaker, afternoon stabilization. The overall deal is OK. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2085-2095, base difference 09pm 5pm 15x 6 deal: 2075-2095, base difference 09pm 10x position 7th deal: 2085-2095, base difference 09x10 position 7 deal: 2090-2110, base difference 09x18prime 25position 8th deal: 2090-2110, base difference 09pm 15pm 209 deal: 2120,09pm 25.

Forecast in the future: the price of raw coal has risen steadily in the near future, affected by the high temperature weather, the downstream demand has been released, the coal price may further rise, and the cost is favorable to support. At present, some devices in the northwest and southwest are expected to be overhauled and repaired. However, the gradual resumption of production of the early maintenance equipment to a certain extent hedged the benefits brought by the device parking to the supply side, coupled with the gradual commissioning of the new device, the supply in the field is still abundant, from the point of view of the demand. The demand for methanol to olefins recovers slowly, the traditional downstream is affected by the off-season and the rainy season in the south, the demand performance remains low, and the contradiction of methanol fundamentals can not be significantly improved in the short term. Up to now, the performance of port regional inventory is different. East China has a good unloading speed during the week, and the mainstream area has stable pick-up, thus showing a tired store. although imported and domestic trade vessels have arrived in South China, it is better to pick up goods downstream under the influence of pre-holiday stock, resulting in a narrow range of regional inventory. At present, the macro and cost support is temporarily stable, the fundamentals are poor, and the cautious mood of the operators in the market remains. It is expected that the short-term methanol market price will be mainly arranged in a narrow range. In the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the crude oil, coal prices and the commissioning of the new plant.