Gasoline (20230620): The market is surrounded by wait-and-see atmosphere, and refiners lack room for price push

Gasoline: the market wait-and-see atmosphere is around, and the refinery price promotion space is insufficient.

International crude oil closed

 

Date	Market	Specifications	Close (US dollars / barrel)	Rise and fall
20230619	America	WTI	-	-
20230619	The United Kingdom	Brent	76.09	-0.52

Note: WTI overnight crude oil futures are closed due to June holidays in the United States and have no settlement price.

 

Gasoline price index

On June 20, China's gasoline price index fell 8.63, or 0.10%, to 8706.63, while China's gasoline price index fell 5.31, or 0.06%, to 9023.38. The 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index were both downgraded, and the price difference between the 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index was 316.74.

 

Gasoline market analysis:

Today, the wholesale price of gasoline in China has been reduced sporadically in some areas, including gasoline prices in North China, East China and Southwest China, by a range of 30-80 yuan per ton. The price of gasoline in South China, Central China, Northwest and Northeast China fluctuated little and did not break through the end value. The ex-factory price of Geolian is stable, only the high-end price of 9-kilogram and 9-kilogram gasoline in North China has been increased by 10 yuan / ton, and the low-end gasoline price in Northwest China has been reduced. At present, the turnover of China's gasoline market is moderate, the hoarding efforts in the middle and lower reaches before the festival are relatively small, and the enthusiasm of operators to enter the market is not high, which is still dominated by the elimination of inventory. There is an imbalance between production and sales in the refinery, and there is a slight burden on the stock. On the whole, the market wait-and-see atmosphere revolves around, and there is not enough room for refineries to push prices.

 

June 20 main wholesale price of gasoline (yuan / ton)
Area	Gasoline model	Price 6.19	Price 6.20	Rise and fall
North China region	92#	8600-8950	8600-8900	0/-50
	95#	8800-9150	8720-9100	-80/-50
South China	92#	8700-9250	8700-9250	0/0
	95#	9000-9550	9000-9550	0/0
Central China	92#	8600-8900	8600-8900	0/0
	95#	8780-9250	8780-9250	0/0
East China region	92#	8550-8950	8550-8900	0/-50
	95#	8750-9160	8750-9080	0/-80
Northwestern region	92#	8500-9520	8500-9520	0/0
	95#	8700-10080	8700-10080	0/0
Southwest China	92#	8800-9080	8750-9080	-50/0
	95#	9150-9530	9120-9530	-30/0
Northeast China	92#	8790-8750	8790-8750	0/0
	95#	8830-9300	8830-9300	0/0

 

June 20 gasoline refinery ex-factory price (yuan / ton)
Area	Gasoline model	Price 6.19	Price 6.20	Rise and fall
Shandong area	92#	8350-8600	8350-8600	0/0
	95#	8480-8820	8480-8820	0/0
North China region	92#	8430-8440	8430-8450	0/10
	95#	8530-8540	8530-8550	0/10
Central China	92#	8580-8580	8580-8580	0/0
	95#	8780-8780	8780-8780	0/0
East China region	92#	8420-8540	8420-8540	0/0
	95#	8570-8690	8570-8690	0/0
Northwestern region	92#	8400-8500	8300-8500	-100/0
	95#	8650-8700	8650-8700	0/0
Northeast China	92#	8500-8500	8500-8500	0/0
	95#	8700-8700	8700-8700	0/0

 

Future forecast

From the perspective of international crude oil, OPEC+ and Saudi Arabia's sharp production reduction plans have been questioned, and the market is worried about whether they can strictly implement the production reduction agreement, coupled with the rise in the dollar index, Brent oil prices are down, and WTI crude oil suspension guidelines are limited. On the supply side in China, although refinery maintenance and start-up are constantly changing, the supply market is still relatively stable. From the perspective of the Chinese market, over the past month, the overall operation of the gasoline market is weak, the demand performance is lower than expected, and the mentality of the middle and lower reaches is more cautious. The enthusiasm of stock preparation before the Dragon Boat Festival is weak, which is affected by the recent market trend to a certain extent. On the whole, the price of Chinese gasoline market is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term.

 

 

Maximum retail price list of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities

Since 24:00 on June 13, 2023, the prices of gasoline and diesel in China (standard products, the same below) will be reduced by 55 yuan and 50 yuan per ton, respectively. After the adjustment, the maximum retail prices of gasoline and diesel in all provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) and central cities are shown in the attached table. The date of the price adjustment will be 24:00 on June 13, 2023, the fifth working day in China since the price adjustment was announced by the National Development and Reform Commission.

 

Schedule

Maximum retail price of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities

Unit: yuan / ton

	I. areas with one province and one price
	Gasoline (standard)	Diesel oil (standard)
Beijing	9320	8300
Tianjin	9285	8265
Hebei Province	9285	8265
Shanxi province	9355	8320
Liaoning province	9285	8265
Jilin Province	9285	8265
Heilongjiang province	9285	8265
Shanghai	9300	8270
Jiangsu Province	9340	8305
Zhejiang Province	9340	8320
Anhui province	9335	8315
Fujian Province	9360	8330
Jiangxi province	9340	8325
Shandong province	9295	8275
Hubei province	9310	8290
Hunan Province	9350	8350
Henan province	9305	8285
Hainan province	9430	8400
Chongqing	9500	8475
Guangdong province	9365	8335
Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region	9430	8400
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region	9290	8265
Gansu province	9270	8285
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region	9065	8160
II. Areas with one province and one price will not be implemented for the time being
	Gasoline (standard)	Diesel oil (standard)
Hohhot	9300	8280
Chengdu city	9505	8500
Guiyang city	9465	8425
Kunming City	9495	8455
Xi'an city	9270	8275
Xining City	9250	8310

                                                                

Note: 1. The prices in the table include consumption tax, value-added tax, urban construction tax and additional education fees.

2. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil in the table are in line with the compulsory national standards of VIA and Ⅵ in the sixth stage.

3. The sixth stage standard of gasoline and diesel is gasoline and No. 0 vehicle diesel respectively.

4. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil that meet the quality standards of the sixth stage for the national reserve and the Xinjiang production and Construction Corps are 8555 yuan and 7535 yuan per ton respectively, and other relevant oil price policies shall be implemented in accordance with the provisions of the measures for Oil Price Management.