Methanol: The methanol period is now rising simultaneously and the market atmosphere has warmed up

On June 20, the methanol market price index was 1873.09, which was 32.66 higher than that of the previous working day and 1.77% higher than that of the previous working day.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on June 19:

China CFR US $232-242USD / ton, Ping

European FOB 232-234 euros / ton, down 4 euros / ton

Us FOB 72-75 cents per gallon, flat

CFR in Southeast Asia was $298300 / ton, down $5 / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 1820-1830 (0), South: 1680-1700 (0), North: 1730-1780 (100), Lunan: 1980-1990 (60), Henan: 1930-1960 (5), Shanxi: 17701820 (0), Port: 2060,2085 (0)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 200-270 (0ax 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 220-310 (0max 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 120-150 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 145-160 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, methanol spot market prices fluctuated upward, the futures market continued to rise, the recent macro-positive continued support, the mentality of market operators improved, the market trading atmosphere was OK, individual devices in the northwest region were temporarily stopped, and some of the downstream air-filling operations existed. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas were partially raised, and the quotation on the central and southern line was around 1680-1700 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday, and that on the northern line was 1730-1780 yuan / ton. Low-end increase of 100 yuan / ton, manufacturers to maintain shipments, terminal downstream and traders rigid demand replenishment, market trading atmosphere has improved. Guanzhong region market prices remain stable, today's market quotation around 1820-1830 yuan / ton, maintain yesterday, the market transaction atmosphere is general. Consumer market quotation rose, of which southern Shandong quoted 1980-1990 yuan / ton, low-end raised 60 yuan / ton, northern Shandong quoted 2000-2010 yuan / ton, low-end raised 90 yuan / ton, operators in the field operate cautiously, wait-and-see mood still exists. Today's market bidding price is around 2010 yuan / ton, of which Dongfang Hualong methanol bid price 2010 yuan / ton, Shenchi Chemical 2010 yuan / ton, Jincheng Petrochemical 2010 yuan / ton. The market quotation in North China has been partially raised, and the market quotation in Shanxi today revolves around 1770-1820 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, and the price in Hebei region is quoted at 1850-1980 yuan / ton, which is raised by 50 yuan / ton at the low end. at present, some enterprises in the market have raised their quotations for shipments. the market atmosphere has improved slightly. The market price in southwest China has been partially lowered, with Yungui quotation around 2020-2100 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday's 1900-2050 yuan / ton in Sichuan and Chongqing, and 50 yuan / ton in the lower end. At present, the market industry is lack of confidence in the future, and the market transaction atmosphere is general.

Port market: today, methanol futures volatility is strong. Spot rigid demand negotiations, the afternoon atmosphere is slightly weaker; in recent months, a small number of high shipments, arbitrage with unilateral buying price follow-up, the basis is slightly stronger, frequent replacement; long-term arbitrage negotiations, the basis is relatively stable. The deal is active. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2065-2085, base difference 09: 5Universe 10: 6 transaction: 2055-2080, base difference 09-5 picture5 market: 7 transaction: 2085, base difference 09: 5bot 7 transaction: 2075-2095, base difference 09: 15 lead 20: 8 transaction: 2075-2095, base difference 09 / 15 / 20.

In the future, it is predicted that the recent macro-economic benefits will continue to support the mentality of the industry, the methanol period is now synchronously raised, the raw material coal is up in a narrow range, and the cost is also supported. According to the fundamentals of methanol supply and demand, there are both restart and overhaul of the plant in the field at present. Hebi 600000 tons, Huangling 300000 tons and other units are planned to be overhauled, Huating 600000 tons plant is restarted, the new new energy plant in Jianyang is planned to be put into production, and the overall market supply has not been significantly reduced. At present, with the Dragon Boat Festival approaching, some traders may have pre-festival replenishment operations, but under the influence of the off-season, it is still difficult to increase demand downstream, and the pattern of short-term methanol supply exceeding demand may be difficult to change. At present, under the favorable support of the macro aspect, the contradiction between supply and demand of methanol remains, and the cautious mood of the operators in the field still exists. It is expected that the short-term methanol market price will be mainly arranged in a narrow range, and in the later stage, we need to pay attention to the crude oil and coal prices and the commissioning of the new plant.