Methanol: Futures market opens higher and lower, Chinese market center of gravity moves upward

On June 19th, the methanol market price index was 1840.43, which was 7.63 higher than that of the previous working day and 0.42% higher than the previous working day.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on June 16:

China CFR is US $232-242USD / ton, up US $2.00 / ton.

European FOB 236-238 euros / ton, down 3 euros / ton

Us FOB 72-75 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asian CFR 303-305 US dollars / ton, up 3 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 1820-1830 (30), South: 1680-1700 (0), North: 1630-1650 (0), Lunan: 1920-1930 (0), Henan: 1870-1885 (30), Shanxi: 17701820 (30), Port: 2060,2075 (5)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 200-270 (- 10gamet0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 220-310 (- 30Compay 10), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 120-150 (10ppm 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 145-160 (- 25Compay 50)

Spot market: today, the methanol spot market is arranged at a high level, and the price fluctuation in the Chinese market 5-120 yuan / ton, at present, the macro support is temporarily stable, the futures market opens high and moves low, and the coastal spot transaction atmosphere is general. The Chinese market talks about the focus of uplink, but there are both maintenance and restart devices in the market, and there is no favorable support on the supply side for the time being. and the demand is weak and difficult to change, the contradiction between supply and demand in the methanol market still exists, and the overall transaction atmosphere is still general. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are stable and small. The quotations on the central and southern lines are around 1680-1700 yuan / ton, while those on the northern line are 1630-1680 yuan / ton, and the low end is stable. At present, there are restart and maintenance devices in the field, and the overall supply has not been significantly reduced, and some enterprises have raised their quotations. However, the purchase is a little cautious, and the actual transaction is general. In the later stage, we should also pay attention to the operation of the methanol plant in the field. The market price in Guanzhong area has been raised narrowly. Today's market quotation revolves around 1820-1830 yuan / ton, with a low-end increase of 30 yuan / ton, and the market transaction atmosphere is general. Shaanxi Changqing methanol this week quoted price: 2000 tons quoted price 1820 yuan / ton, more than 2000 tons quoted price 1830 yuan / ton, at present, the plant 600000 tons methanol plant is operating normally. The quotation of the consumer market has been partially raised, of which southern Shandong quoted 1920-1930 yuan / ton, maintaining the previous working day, northern Shandong quoted 1910-1940 yuan / ton, the low end increased by 30 yuan / ton, the industry mainly wait and see at the beginning of the week, the market negotiation atmosphere is general. The market quotation in North China has been partially raised. The market quotation in Shanxi today revolves around 1770-1820 yuan / ton, with a low-end increase of 30 yuan / ton, while Hebei price is quoted at 1800-1850 yuan / ton, which is stable at the low end. at present, the early-week operators in the market are mainly waiting and waiting, and there are no new price guidelines for the time being.

Port market: methanol futures opened high and opened low today. Spot and 6 on-demand procurement; forward paper goods are sold high and sucked low, forward arbitrage and exchange negotiations are active, and the basis stabilizes slightly. The overall transaction is active. Taicang main port transaction price: 6, transaction price: 2060-2080, basis 09-5, base 09-5, basis 09-5, basis 09-5, margin 0, transaction price: 2050-2075, base difference 09-5, base difference: 2065-2095, basis difference 09: 10, transaction price: 2070-2095, basis difference 09: 15.

Future forecast: the recent raw material coal prices have stabilized, the cost side has a certain support, at present, Inner Mongolia Elcometer, Hebi Coal Chemical, Shaanxi Huangling methanol plant recently have maintenance plans, but Jiutai new material 2 million tons of large methanol plant ignition restart, short-term field supply is not significantly reduced, coupled with the downstream off-season demand increase is limited, methanol supply and demand contradiction is not significantly improved, the market trading atmosphere is slightly general. In the port market, the futures market opens high and goes low, the basis stabilizes on the strong side, and the coastal spot trading atmosphere is general. At present, the macro support is temporarily stable, the fundamental contradictions remain, and the cautious sentiment of the operators in the field continues unabated. It is expected that the short-term methanol market price will be mainly arranged in a narrow range, and in the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the crude oil and coal prices and the operation of the plant in the field.