Gasoline (20230619): Insufficient hoarding efforts before the holiday, and demand did not meet expectations

Gasoline: insufficient hoarding before the holiday and demand falling short of expectations

International crude oil closed

 

Date	Market	Specifications	Close (US dollars / barrel)	Rise and fall
20230616	America	WTI	71.78	1.16
20230616	The United Kingdom	Brent	76.61	0.94

 

Gasoline price index

On June 19th, China's gasoline price index fell 0.60, or 0.01%, to 8715.26, while China's gasoline price index fell 1.54, or 0.02%, to 9028.69. The 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index were both downgraded, and the price difference between the 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index was 313.43.

 

Gasoline market analysis:

Today, the wholesale price of gasoline in China has been reduced by a narrow range in some areas, including gasoline prices in North China, Southwest and Northeast China, by a range of 10-50 yuan per ton. The prices of gasoline in South China, Central China, East China and Northwest China are adjusted within the price range. The ex-factory price of geo-refining is rising and falling, among which the reduction of gasoline in Shandong, Central China and Northwest China is concentrated in 20-80 yuan / ton. The price of gasoline in North and East China has been increased by 20 yuan per ton. At present, the turnover of China's gasoline market is average, the hoarding atmosphere before the Dragon Boat Festival is mild, and the hoarding in some areas is over, and the market hoarding efforts are insufficient. The refinery shipment performance is mediocre, the demand end support is insufficient, the refinery more flexible adjustment preferential policy, stimulates the shipment, achieves the volume goal. On the whole, the demand falls short of expectations and the market is weak.

 

June 19 main wholesale price of gasoline (yuan / ton)
Area	Gasoline model	Price 6.16	Price 6.19	Rise and fall
North China region	92#	8600-9000	8600-8950	0/-50
	95#	8800-9200	8800-9150	0/-50
South China	92#	8700-9250	8700-9250	0/0
	95#	9000-9550	9000-9550	0/0
Central China	92#	8600-8900	8600-8900	0/0
	95#	8780-9250	8780-9250	0/0
East China region	92#	8550-8950	8550-8950	0/0
	95#	8750-9160	8750-9160	0/0
Northwestern region	92#	8500-9520	8500-9520	0/0
	95#	8700-10080	8700-10080	0/0
Southwest China	92#	8800-9130	8800-9080	0/-50
	95#	9150-9580	9150-9530	0/-50
Northeast China	92#	8500-8750	8790-8750	-10/0
	95#	8880-9300	8830-9300	-50/0

 

June 19 gasoline refinery ex-factory price (yuan / ton)
Area	Gasoline model	Price 6.16	Price 6.19	Rise and fall
Shandong area	92#	8350-8620	8350-8600	0/-20
	95#	8480-8840	8480-8820	0/-20
North China region	92#	8430-8440	8430-8440	20/0
	95#	8530-8540	8530-8540	20/0
Central China	92#	8660-8660	8580-8580	-80/-80
	95#	8860-8860	8780-8780	-80/-80
East China region	92#	8400-8540	8420-8540	20/0
	95#	8550-8690	8570-8690	20/0
Northwestern region	92#	8400-8600	8400-8500	0/-100
	95#	8650-8700	8650-8700	0/0
Northeast China	92#	8500-8500	8500-8500	0/0
	95#	8700-8700	8700-8700	0/0

 

Future forecast

From the perspective of international crude oil, is the market optimistic about Asian demand, coupled with the weakening of the US dollar and the rise in international oil prices, forming a positive support. From the point of view of demand, there is hoarding support in the Chinese market before the Dragon Boat Festival, but at present, hoarding in some areas has ended, the demand side has not met market expectations, and in recent days, heavy rainfall or hot weather has limited the travel radius of private cars, and retail support may have weakened. According to statistics, as of May, the market share of new energy vehicles has reached 27.7%, and the share has increased. With stable supply and insufficient demand support, there are no outstanding positive factors in China's gasoline market for the time being. On the whole, it is expected that China's gasoline market will remain weak in the short term.

 

 

Maximum retail price list of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities

Since 24:00 on June 13, 2023, the prices of gasoline and diesel in China (standard products, the same below) will be reduced by 55 yuan and 50 yuan per ton, respectively. After the adjustment, the maximum retail prices of gasoline and diesel in all provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) and central cities are shown in the attached table. The date of the price adjustment will be 24:00 on June 13, 2023, the fourth working day in China since the price adjustment was announced by the National Development and Reform Commission.

 

Schedule

Maximum retail price of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities

Unit: yuan / ton

	I. areas with one province and one price
	Gasoline (standard)	Diesel oil (standard)
Beijing	9320	8300
Tianjin	9285	8265
Hebei Province	9285	8265
Shanxi province	9355	8320
Liaoning province	9285	8265
Jilin Province	9285	8265
Heilongjiang province	9285	8265
Shanghai	9300	8270
Jiangsu Province	9340	8305
Zhejiang Province	9340	8320
Anhui province	9335	8315
Fujian Province	9360	8330
Jiangxi province	9340	8325
Shandong province	9295	8275
Hubei province	9310	8290
Hunan Province	9350	8350
Henan province	9305	8285
Hainan province	9430	8400
Chongqing	9500	8475
Guangdong province	9365	8335
Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region	9430	8400
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region	9290	8265
Gansu province	9270	8285
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region	9065	8160
II. Areas with one province and one price will not be implemented for the time being
	Gasoline (standard)	Diesel oil (standard)
Hohhot	9300	8280
Chengdu city	9505	8500
Guiyang city	9465	8425
Kunming City	9495	8455
Xi'an city	9270	8275
Xining City	9250	8310

                                                                

Note: 1. The prices in the table include consumption tax, value-added tax, urban construction tax and additional education fees.

2. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil in the table are in line with the compulsory national standards of VIA and Ⅵ in the sixth stage.

3. The sixth stage standard of gasoline and diesel is gasoline and No. 0 vehicle diesel respectively.

4. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil that meet the quality standards of the sixth stage for the national reserve and the Xinjiang production and Construction Corps are 8555 yuan and 7535 yuan per ton respectively, and other relevant oil price policies shall be implemented in accordance with the provisions of the measures for Oil Price Management.