Daily review of urea: Spot stocks rebounded again, and now both markets are rising (June 19)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on June 19 was 2,143.86, up 37.73 from last Friday, up 1.79% month-on-month, and down 33.86% year-on-year.

Urea futures market:

The Urea UR2309 contract rose after the opening of early trading today, reaching an intraday high of 1768 and then falling back. After that, the afternoon futures price remained volatile until the late futures price fell and closed at 1714. The opening price of the Urea UR2309 contract: 1721, the highest price: 1768, the lowest price: 1713, the settlement price: 1741, the closing price: 1714, the closing price dropped by 8 compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.46%. The daily fluctuation range is 1713-1768, and the spread is 55; the 09 contract has reduced its position by 17421 lots today, and the position has been held so far to 420470 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Since the weekend, China's urea spot market prices have risen across the board, with the increase concentrated at 30-80 yuan/ton. Driven by agricultural demand in mainstream areas and market sentiment, goods are relatively considerable, but the terminal real estate industry performs generally and labor demand is weak. The market supply is high, with Nissan above 170,000 tons. However, there were many orders last week and market inventories were low, which effectively alleviated the current supply pressure. The market mentality is better and prices are rising. Specifically, prices in Northeast China have risen to 2,100 - 2,300 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 1,940 - 2,150 yuan/ton. Prices in Northwest China rose to 2,110 - 2,120 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China have stabilized to 2,000 - 2,250 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,080 - 2,160 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has risen to 2,050 - 2,350 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles has stabilized at 2,100 - 2,120 yuan/ton. Prices in South China rose to 2,180 - 2,260 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of futures, today's futures prices surged high and fell back. The market's trend was slightly stronger due to the influence of international energy prices. The basis narrowed, and the divergence between the two markets has eased. Fundamentally speaking, with the release of new production capacity, the pressure on the supply side continues to increase, and is currently above 170,000 tons. Last week, the market traded a lot of new orders, and the market is currently actively consuming inventory. On the demand side, the wheat harvest in mainstream areas has ended and entered a short agricultural gap. The current demand for topdressing of crops is not high, and it is still necessary to wait for the peak agricultural demand period to appear for a short time. In the long run, agricultural needs may partially appear after July. In terms of cost, port coal remains low, but costs are still under pressure. On the export side, the appearance of printed labels has prompted a rebound in China's market, but the actual export price is lower than the Chinese price, which will put pressure on the Chinese market in the long run. Overall, the current market sentiment is good, but the price increase trend is slow, and the market is expected to rise slightly in the short term.