Methanol: Methanol futures are strong and volatile. Chinese market stops falling and stabilizes

On June 16, the methanol market price index was 1832.8, up 4% from yesterday and 0.22% from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on June 15:

China CFR 230,240USD / ton, Ping

European FOB 239-241 euros / ton, down 3 euros / ton

Us FOB 72-75 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asia CFR 300-302 US dollars / ton, up 7 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 1790-1800 (0), South: 1680-1700 (0), North: 1630-1650 (0), Lunan: 1920-1930 (20), Henan: 1870-1885 (30), Shanxi: 17401800 (0), Port: 20552065 (25)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 210-270 (10Universe Mur10), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 250-320 (- 20murmur20), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 110-150 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 170-210 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, methanol spot market rose narrowly, and the price in China market fluctuated. 20-50 yuan per ton, the futures market continues to fluctuate and rebound under the macro-positive support, and the focus of market negotiations in some areas has shifted slightly. However, the Chinese market is still in the pattern of oversupply, supply is expected to continue to increase, while demand is weak and difficult to change. Pessimism remains in the market, and the overall trading atmosphere is still general. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are stable, including 1680-1700 yuan / ton for the south line and 1630-1680 yuan / ton for the north line, with low-end stability. At present, there are restart and maintenance devices in the field, and new units are planned to be put into production, the supply is not significantly reduced, the quotations of enterprises in the field are mixed, and the trading atmosphere is not significantly improved. In the later stage, we need to pay attention to the operation of methanol plants in the field. Guanzhong region market prices remain stable, today's market quotation around 1790-1800 yuan / ton, maintain yesterday, the market transaction atmosphere is general. The price of the consumer market has been partially raised, of which southern Shandong quoted 1920-1930 yuan / ton, the low end increased 20 yuan / ton, and northern Shandong quoted 1880-1910 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday. At present, the cautious mood of the operators in the market remains, and the trading atmosphere is limited. The bidding price in today's market revolves around 1910-1920 yuan / ton, including Dongfang Hualong methanol bidding price 1920 yuan / ton, Shenchi chemical industry 1910 yuan / ton. The market quotation in North China revolves around 1740-1850, the market quotation in Shanxi today revolves around 1740-1800 yuan / ton, and the price in Hebei region is quoted at 1800-1850 yuan / ton, which is stable at the low end. at present, the market operators lack confidence in the future, and the trading atmosphere is general. Market prices in Northeast China fell partially, with Liaoning quotation around 1870-2150 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday's 2000 yuan per ton in Heilongjiang, with a low-end reduction of 250yuan / ton. at present, the cautious mood of the market is still there, and the market transaction atmosphere is general.

Port market: methanol futures are high and volatile today. Spot and 6 on-demand procurement; 6 and 7 next period arbitrage to receive goods, unilateral high and positive exchange of goods, the basis continues to be weak; the distant month unilateral offer is limited, the basis is slightly weak. The overall transaction is active. Taicang main port transaction price: spot / 6: 2060-2075, basis 09: 0Universe 10: 6 deal: 2050-2070, basis 09-5pm: 010, transaction 7: 2065-2085, basis 09: 10pm 15: 8: 2070-2090, basis 09: 209, transaction: 2085-2100, base difference 09: 25pm: 3010: 1010.

Future forecast: the recent macro-positive release has a certain support for the methanol market, and the market center of gravity has risen slightly, but the contradiction between supply and demand in the Chinese market still exists. at present, the 600000-ton methanol plant in Huating, Gansu has been restored. Xuzhou Longxingtai Energy, Inner Mongolia Shanghai Coking, Inner Mongolia Guangju New Materials, Shanxi Ganyang New Energy and other new devices are planned to be put into operation, and the supply in the field is expected to increase, and under the background of off-season. Some traditional downstream operating rates are narrowly declining, methanol consumption is narrowly reduced, downstream enterprises buy more to maintain rigid demand, short-term supply and demand fundamentals are difficult to support, coupled with the weak and stable operation of raw material coal, the cost increases the bearish mentality of the methanol market, and the market trading atmosphere is slightly general. In the port market, the futures market is strong and volatile, the basis is weak, affected by shipping closures and chemicals blocking ports during the week, the speed of unloading is limited, and the arrival of imports and some domestic goods to Hong Kong is significantly lower than that of last week. At present, the support of raw material coal is weak, the performance of methanol market fundamentals is poor, the market supply exceeds demand, the pessimism of operators in the market still exists, and the price of methanol market is expected to be weak in the short term. in the later stage, we should also pay attention to the price of crude oil, coal and the operation of the plant in the field.