Methanol: Futures market fluctuates within a narrow range, Chinese market continues to be weak

On June 15, the methanol market price index was 1828.8, down 12.39 from yesterday and 0.67 per cent from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on June 14:

China CFR 230,239 US dollars / ton, Ping

European FOB 242244euros / ton, down 4 euros / ton

Us FOB 72-75 cents per gallon, flat

CFR in Southeast Asia is US $293-295 per ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 1790-1800 (0), South: 1680-1700 (0), North: 1630-1650 (0), Lunan: 1900 (0), Henan: 1840-1860 (0), Shanxi: 1740-1860 (0), Port: 20402065 (10)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 200-280 (0ax 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 270-340 (0-0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 110-150 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 170-210 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the spot market of methanol continues to be weak, and the price fluctuation of the Chinese market 10-250 yuan per ton, the futures market fluctuated and rebounded and the trend was strong, which slightly supported the mentality of the operators, but the situation of oversupply in the methanol market was difficult to change, and with the restart of some units in the market and the commissioning of new ones, the supply was expected to increase continuously, while the weak demand was difficult to change, and the improvement of the market trading atmosphere was limited. Specifically, the market in the main producing areas is up and down, with the quotation on the central and southern route around 1680-1700 yuan / ton and the northern line on the 1630-1650 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday. At present, the market is affected by the rebound in futures market, and the market trading atmosphere is slightly improved. Some enterprises continue to reduce prices for shipments, mainly to fill the gap, and the transaction is OK. In the later stage, we should also pay attention to the operation of methanol plants in the field. Market prices in Guanzhong region move steadily. Today's market quotation revolves around 1790-1800 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday's market transaction atmosphere. Among them, Shaanxi Changqing methanol was lowered twice this week: 1800 yuan / ton for 2000 tons and 1810 yuan / ton for 2000 tons. At present, the 600000-ton methanol plant in the plant is operating normally. Consumer market prices are stable, of which southern Shandong quoted 1900 yuan / ton, northern Shandong quoted 1880-1910 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday, the current cautious mood of the market is still there, the trading atmosphere is limited. The market quotation in North China revolves around 1740-1850, the market quotation in Shanxi today revolves around 1740-1800 yuan / ton, and the price in Hebei region is quoted at 1800-1850 yuan / ton, which is stable at the low end. at present, the trading atmosphere on the market has improved slightly. Market prices in Northeast China fell partially, with Liaoning quotation around 1870-2150 yuan / ton, low-end reduction of 250 yuan / ton, Heilongjiang 2200 billion nbsp; yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday's cautious mood among market operators, some enterprises mainly shipped goods, and the market transaction atmosphere was general.

Port market: today, methanol futures are slightly more volatile. Spot a small amount of rigid demand. In recent months, high-level shipments are active, mainly buying arbitrage; long-term arbitrage negotiations, some unilateral higher than low, the basis is weaker. The overall transaction is active. Taicang main port transaction price: 6, transaction price: 2030-2055, base difference 09: 1510, basis: 2025-2050, base difference: 09: 10, base difference: 2050, base difference: 2030-2060, basis difference: 09: 2055, base difference 09: 2055, base difference: 2050-2060, base difference 09: 2060, base difference 09: 2060, base difference 09: 2060.

Forecast in the future: the raw material coal has stabilized in the near future, and the cost support is limited. According to the fundamentals of methanol supply and demand, the supply in the market is still abundant. In addition, some new units are planned to be put into production in the near future, and the supply is expected to continue to increase. With the recent wide decline in methanol market prices, some downstream enterprise profits have been repaired, coupled with the strong futures market trend to support the mentality of the industry, but under the background of traditional downstream consumption off-season. The market buying mood is not good, the demand side is difficult to improve significantly in the short term, and we should pay attention to the macro support in the later stage. At present, the macro positive support is limited, the contradiction between supply and demand in the methanol market still exists, the cautious sentiment of the operators in the market continues, and it is expected that the price of methanol market will be weak in the short term, and we need to pay attention to the prices of crude oil and coal and the operation of the plant in the field in the later stage.