Methanol: Futures continued to rise slightly, spot prices were weak and difficult to change

On June 14, the methanol market price index was 1814.97, down 79.69 from yesterday and 4.21% from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on June 13:

China CFR 230,239 US dollars / ton, Ping

European FOB 246-248euros / ton, down 4 euros / ton

Us FOB 72-75 cents per gallon, down 2 cents per gallon

CFR in Southeast Asia is US $293-295 per ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 1790-800 (- 10), south route: 1680-1700 (- 50), north route: 1630-1650 (- 50), Lunan: 1900 (0), Henan: 1840-1870 (- 10), Shanxi: 1740-1830 (30), port: 20402065 (10)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 200-280 (0Uniqure 10), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 270-340 (- 10-0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 110-150 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 170-210 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the price of methanol in the spot market continues to decline, and the futures market continues to rise slightly with the help of macro-positive support, but considering that the Chinese market is still in a situation where supply exceeds demand, pessimism remains in the market. downstream replenishment enthusiasm is not high, and the recent freight prices have increased, some manufacturers continue to lower factory quotations for shipments, but the transaction is still not improving. Specifically, the market quotations in the main producing areas have fallen widely, including 1680-1700 yuan / ton in the south line, 120 yuan / ton in the low end, 1630 yuan / ton in the north line, and 50 yuan / ton in the low end. At present, some enterprises in the field continue to lower their quotations for shipments, but downstream demand is weak and difficult to change, operators are not in a good mood to receive goods, and the transaction is still not optimistic. In the later stage, we need to pay attention to the operation of methanol plants in the field. Guanzhong region market prices continue to decline, today's market quotation around 1790 yuan / ton, the low end down 10 yuan / ton, the market transaction atmosphere is general. The price of the consumer market has been partially lowered, of which southern Shandong quoted 1900 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday, northern Shandong quoted 1880-1910 yuan / ton, and the low end was reduced by 20 yuan / ton. at present, the operators in the market are cautious in receiving goods, the wait-and-see mood is gradually rising, and the market trading atmosphere is limited. The market quotation in North China revolves around 1740-1850, and the market quotation in Shanxi today revolves around 1740-1830 yuan / ton. at present, there is no obvious volume in the downstream demand, the cautious mood of the operators in the market still exists, and the market transaction atmosphere is general; the price in Hebei is quoted at 1800-1850 yuan / ton. the low end is reduced by 180 yuan / ton. at present, most of the market operators are wait-and-see, and the transaction atmosphere is limited. Market prices in southwest China have fallen, with Yungui quotation around 2020-2100 yuan / ton, low-end reduction of 30 yuan / ton, Sichuan and Chongqing 1950-2150 yuan / ton, and low-end reduction of 80 yuan / ton. at present, the cautious mood of market operators is still there, and the market transaction atmosphere is general.

Port market: methanol futures rose and then fell back today. Spot a small amount of rigid demand. Recently, there has been an increase in unilateral high shipments, mainly arbitrage buying, and a weaker basis. Long-term unilateral participation is limited, and the basis is slightly weaker. The overall deal is OK. Transaction price of Taicang main Port:

Spot / 6: 2040-2065, basis 09: 20, margin: 2035-2060, basis: 09: 15, margin: 2035-2075, basis: 09: 25: 30: 8: 2040-2075, basis: 09: 30: 35: 9: 2050-2055, basis: 09: 35.

Future forecast: the recent raw material coal price is weak and stable, and the cost support is insufficient. At present, the supply in the field is still abundant, and Longxingtai's new 300000-ton methanol plant has been put into production smoothly, and the supply is expected to continue to increase. However, the inventory of raw materials in some downstream enterprises is on the high side, and the mood of manufacturers to pick up goods continues to be depressed. Although some production enterprises have lowered their quotations for shipment, the buying mentality is still bearish, and the marginal demand may be significantly improved in the short term. The trading atmosphere in the market is slightly depressed. In the port market, futures market volatility is strong, spot rigid demand negotiations, the basis is slightly weaker, so far, the port regional inventory performance is different, East China is affected by part of the time closure, the overall unloading speed is general, the mainstream area pick-up is stable, thus showing a narrow range of depots, but although there is normal consumption downstream in South China, imports and domestic trade vessels have arrived at Hong Kong during the week, resulting in a narrow stock accumulation in the region. At present, the macro performance of the methanol market is poor, the contradiction between supply and demand still exists, and the pessimism of the operators in the market continues to be strong. It is expected that the price of methanol market will be weak in the short term, and we need to pay attention to the prices of crude oil and coal and the operation of the plant in the field in the later stage.