Gasoline (20230613): International oil prices have dropped significantly, and the market wait-and-see sentiment has intensified

Gasoline: international oil prices have fallen sharply, and market wait-and-see sentiment has increased.

International crude oil closed

 

Date	Market	Specifications	Close (US dollars / barrel)	Rise and fall
20230612	America	WTI	67.12	-3.05
20230612	The United Kingdom	Brent	71.84	-2.95

 

Gasoline price index

On June 13, China's gasoline price index fell 37.86, or 0.43%, to 8733.89, while China's gasoline price index fell 27.11, or 0.30%, to 9041.08. The 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index were both downgraded, and the price difference between the 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index was 307.20.

 

Gasoline market analysis:

Today, the domestic price of gasoline in China, which is the main wholesale price area, has been lowered again, with prices in North China, South China, Central China, East China, Northwest, Southwest and Northeast China falling again, with a range of 20-50 yuan per ton. The price range of gasoline in Northeast China is arranged within the price range of 9% gasoline. The ex-factory price of georefining has been reduced, among which the price of gasoline in Shandong, North China, Central China, East China and Northwest China has been reduced by a range of 30-100 yuan per ton. Gasoline prices in northeast China are stable for the time being. At present, the turnover in China's gasoline market is not good, the international oil price has dropped sharply, the wait-and-see mood in the market has increased, and the enthusiasm of operators to enter the market is not high. Refinery shipping speed is slow, in order to alleviate the inventory pressure more price reduction promotion. On the whole, the buying and selling atmosphere in the market is weak, and there is not enough room to lift.

 

June 13 main wholesale price of gasoline (yuan / ton)
Area	Gasoline model	Price 6.12	Price 6.13	Rise and fall
North China region	92#	8650-8950	8600-8950	-50/0
	95#	8850-9230	8800-9230	-50/0
South China	92#	8750-9250	8700-9200	-50/-50
	95#	9000-9550	8950-9500	-50/-50
Central China	92#	8650-8950	8600-8900	-50/-50
	95#	8800-9250	8750-9200	-50/-50
East China region	92#	8600-8950	8550-8900	-50/-50
	95#	8800-9210	8750-9160	-50/-50
Northwestern region	92#	8600-9580	8580-9580	-20/0
	95#	8800-10140	8780-10140	-20/0
Southwest China	92#	8800-9180	8800-9130	0/-50
	95#	9200-9630	9150-9580	-50/-50
Northeast China	92#	8580-8800	8530-8800	-50/0
	95#	8900-9300	8900-9300	0/0

 

June 13 gasoline refinery ex-factory price (yuan / ton)
Area	Gasoline model	Price 6.12	Price 6.13	Rise and fall
Shandong area	92#	8350-8630	8350-8600	0/-30
	95#	8440-8790	8440-8750	0/-40
North China region	92#	8390-8400	8350-8390	-40/-10
	95#	8490-8500	8450-8490	-40/-10
Central China	92#	8720-8720	8620-8620	-100/-100
	95#	8920-8920	8820-8820	-100/-100
East China region	92#	8400-8500	8370-8500	-30/0
	95#	8550-8650	8520-8650	-30/0
Northwestern region	92#	8350-8700	8200-8600	-150/-100
	95#	8500-8800	8500-8700	0/-100
Northeast China	92#	8550-8550	8550-8550	0/0
	95#	8750-8750	8750-8750	0/0

 

Future forecast

From the perspective of international crude oil, investors are worried that the Federal Reserve may resume raising interest rates in July, tension remains, and international oil prices have fallen sharply, without favorable support. International oil prices have fallen again, the rate of change in oil prices has increased negatively, the price adjustment of refined oil products has broken through the red line of reduction, and it is expected to decline from stranding, and macro policies will be negatively guided. From the perspective of demand, the prospect of vehicle air conditioning oil demand is good, but the terminal consumption is slow, the downstream demand is insufficient, and the demand as a whole is general. However, in view of the consumption of bearish sentiment in the market before the price adjustment, China's gasoline prices are expected to sort out within a narrow range after the oil product price adjustment window opens at 24:00 today.

 

 

Maximum retail price list of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities

Since 24:00 on May 30, 2023, the prices of gasoline and diesel in China (standard products, the same below) will be increased by 100 yuan and 95 yuan per ton, respectively. After the adjustment, the maximum retail prices of gasoline and diesel in all provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) and central cities are shown in the attached table. The date of the price adjustment will be 24:00 on May 30, 2023, which is the 10th working day in China since the price adjustment was announced by the National Development and Reform Commission.

 

Schedule

Maximum retail price of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities

Unit: yuan / ton

	I. areas with one province and one price
	Gasoline (standard)	Diesel oil (standard)
Beijing	9375	8350
Tianjin	9340	8315
Hebei Province	9340	8315
Shanxi province	9410	8370
Liaoning province	9340	8315
Jilin Province	9340	8315
Heilongjiang province	9340	8315
Shanghai	9355	8320
Jiangsu Province	9395	8355
Zhejiang Province	9395	8370
Anhui province	9390	8365
Fujian Province	9415	8380
Jiangxi province	9395	8375
Shandong province	9350	8325
Hubei province	9365	8340
Hunan Province	9405	8400
Henan province	9360	8335
Hainan province	9485	8450
Chongqing	9555	8525
Guangdong province	9420	8385
Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region	9485	8450
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region	9345	8315
Gansu province	9325	8335
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region	9120	8210
II. Areas with one province and one price will not be implemented for the time being
	Gasoline (standard)	Diesel oil (standard)
Hohhot	9355	8330
Chengdu city	9560	8550
Guiyang city	9520	8475
Kunming City	9550	8505
Xi'an city	9325	8325
Xining City	9305	8360

                                                                

Note: 1. The prices in the table include consumption tax, value-added tax, urban construction tax and additional education fees.

2. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil in the table are in line with the compulsory national standards of VIA and Ⅵ in the sixth stage.

3. The sixth stage standard of gasoline and diesel is gasoline and No. 0 vehicle diesel respectively.

4. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil that meet the quality standards of the sixth stage for the national reserve and the Xinjiang production and Construction Corps are 8610 yuan and 7585 yuan per ton respectively, and other relevant oil price policies shall be implemented in accordance with the provisions of the measures for Oil Price Management.