Methanol: Cost support weakens Futures fell below the 2000 mark

On June 12, the methanol market price index was 1964.92, down 14.5% from the previous working day, and 0.73% lower than the previous working day.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on June 9:

China CFR 240,247USD / ton, Ping

European FOB 251-253 euros / ton, down 2 euros / ton

Us FOB 74-77 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asian CFR 298-300USD / ton, down US $1 / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 1920-2000 (0), South: 1800 (0), North: & nbsp;1780-1860 (0), Lunan: 2020-2030 (0), Henan: 1920-1980 (- 75), Shanxi: 1880-1940 (- 50), Port: 202035 (- 25)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 230-290 (20amp 20), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 280-340 (20-10), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 110-150 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 170-210 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the center of gravity of the methanol market continues to move downwards. The prices of most Chinese manufacturers have fallen below 1800 yuan / ton, and the futures market has fallen below 2000 yuan to 1969 yuan. Affected by the weakening support at the cost end, coal chemical products are under pressure. Methanol is obviously dragged down by the cost, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the Chinese market continues, and the new prices of some manufacturers continue to adjust at the beginning of the week. Specifically, the market quotations in the main producing areas have been lowered along with them. Its central and southern route is 1800 yuan / ton, and the northern line is quoted at 1780-1860 yuan / ton. at present, the overall supply in the market is still abundant, the inventory pressure of some manufacturers is slightly prominent, the lower reaches are pessimistic, and the overall enthusiasm for restocking in the market is not high. Market prices in Guanzhong area are mainly reduced. Today's market quotation revolves around 1900-1910 yuan / ton. Changqing quotes 2000 tons to 1900 yuan / ton and 2000 tons to 1910 yuan / ton. At present, the plant is running smoothly and the market transaction atmosphere is general. The price of the consumer market is adjusted in a narrow range, of which southern Shandong is quoted at 2020 yuan / ton and northern Shandong is quoted at 1980-2030 yuan / ton. with the continuous decline in prices, there is a strong pessimistic mood among the operators in the market, coupled with the continued downward adjustment in the futures market, and under the fear of falling, the enthusiasm of operators to enter the market to restock is limited. The market quotation in North China revolves around 1880-1980, while the market quotation in Shanxi is mainly downgraded. Today's quotation revolves around 1880-1940 / ton. at present, there is no obvious volume in the downstream demand, the cautious mood of the operators in the market still exists, and the market transaction atmosphere is general; the price in Hebei is quoted at 1980-2030 yuan / ton, and the market transaction atmosphere is limited, mainly rigid demand.

Port market: methanol futures fell today. The spot is negotiated on demand. During the month, contracts are mainly sold at a moderate price; far-month arbitrage offers, some unilateral bargain-hunting, the basis remains stable. The overall deal was average. Spot / order: 2010-2035, basis 09: 2030, basis: 2010-2030, basis: 2000-2015, basis: 2010-2050, basis: 09: 32: 35: 8: 2010-2055, basis: 09: 35

Future forecast: the recent overall poor macro performance, the ECB said that it will not stop raising interest rates in the short term, investors' worries about the recession in the market economy still exist, coupled with the current coal prices fluctuating downward under the influence of abundant supply, macro sentiment and costs are both positive and negative for the methanol market. Recently, the overall supply performance of the Chinese market is abundant, market quotations continue to decline, traders and terminal downstream operators are more cautious, only some of them meet bargains and fill short-term transactions, although some of the profits in the lower reaches have been repaired, but the traditional downstream has ushered in the off-season of consumption. demand is still difficult to improve in the short term. At present, the contradiction between supply and demand in the Chinese market still exists, and the methanol market dominated by the bearish market may continue to operate weakly in the short term, and we need to pay attention to the prices of crude oil and coal and the operation of the plant in the field in the later stage.