Methanol: The focus of the spot market continues to move downward, and the pessimism of the industry remains unchanged

On June 9, the methanol market price index was 1979.42, down 4.08 from yesterday, down 0.21% from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on June 8:

China CFR 240,245USD / ton, up US $5.00 / ton

European FOB 253-255euro / ton, up 0.25euro / ton

Us FOB 74-77 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asia CFR 299-301USD / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 1920-2000 (0), South: 1800 (0), North: & nbsp;1780-1860 (- 10), Lunan: 2020 (- 10), Henan: 1995-2030 (- 5), Shanxi: 1930-2030 (0), Port: 2045-2030 (- 25)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 200-270 (0ax 0), South Line-North Shandong 250-300 (0ax 0), Shanxi-North Shandong 100-150 (0ax 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 170-210 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the price of methanol market is weak, the spot price is reduced by 20-30 yuan / ton, the volatility of the futures market is weak, the port spot is negotiated on demand, and the basis is weak; the supply in the Chinese market is still abundant, and the supply of some devices in the market is expected to restart, and the supply may continue to increase, coupled with the lack of obvious volume of downstream demand, affected by the contradiction between supply and demand of methanol itself, the cautious mood of operators in the market still exists, and the transaction atmosphere is general. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas has been partially reduced, with the central and southern route quotation of 1800 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, and the quotation of the northern line revolves around 1780-1860 yuan / ton, down by 10 yuan / ton at the low end. At present, part of the maintenance equipment in the field is planned to resume, the overall supply is still high, the enterprise shipping pressure is high, and the transaction is still mediocre after some manufacturers reduce their quotations and shipments, and the market pessimism intensifies. In the later stage, we should also pay attention to the operation of the methanol plant in the field. Guanzhong region market quotation is stable, today's quotation around 1920-2000 yuan / ton, maintain yesterday, the transaction situation is general. Consumer market prices down, today Lunan quoted 2020 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan / ton compared with yesterday, Lubei quotation around 2030-2040 yuan / ton, low-end down 50 yuan / ton, the current floor negotiations are limited, the trading atmosphere is general. So far, the bidding price in today's market revolves around 2010-2030 yuan / ton, of which Shenchi chemical methanol bid price 2030 yuan / ton, Oriental Hualong 2010 yuan / ton. The market price in North China is stable, the quotation in Hebei is around 1980-2030 yuan / ton, and the quotation in Shanxi is around 1930-2030 yuan / ton. at present, the market demand is not good, the cost price suppresses the mentality, and most manufacturers ship goods at a positive price. The market price in southwest China is stable. The quotation of Yungui revolves around 2050-2150 yuan / ton and Sichuan-Chongqing 2050-2180 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday. At present, the cautious mood of the operators in the market is still there, and the market transaction atmosphere is general.

Port market: methanol futures range fluctuated today. The spot is negotiated on demand and the transaction is concluded at a reasonable price. Recent shipments are active, the basis is weak; far-month arbitrage negotiations are the main, the exchange of goods is increasing, the basis is stable. The overall deal is OK. Spot transaction: 2045-2070, basis 09: 25: 6: 2045-2070, basis: 09: 25: 6: 6 & nbsp;:2045-2075, margin: 09: 25: 30: 7: nbsp;:2050-2075, basis: 09: 35 : 2050-2075, the basis difference is 09: 30, the basis difference is 35: 10, the transaction is: 2050-2070, the basis difference is 09: 30.

Future forecast: the recent weak and stable operation of raw material coal prices, insufficient cost support, the current abundant supply in the field, coupled with the planned resumption of some maintenance devices in the main production areas, the expected increase in supply in the field, from the demand side, with the continuous decline in methanol market prices, the profits of downstream olefin enterprises have been repaired, and some of the early parking devices have been restarted as scheduled, and the 300000-ton MTO plant in Yangmei Hengtong has been restarted. Pucheng clean energy 700000 tons olefin plant is in stable operation, but the traditional downstream is in the off-season of consumption, the marginal demand is difficult to be significantly improved, and the market transaction atmosphere is weak. In the port market, the volatility of the futures market is weak, the basis is weak, the cyclical unloading speed of foreign ships is good, and the arrival volume keeps growing compared with last week. At present, the Chinese market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the cost support is weakened, the operators in the market are afraid of falling, the enthusiasm of entering the market is not high, and it is expected that the price of methanol market will be weak in the short term. in the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the prices of crude oil, coal and the operation of the plant in the field.