Methanol: Bad deals: China and ports have mixed trends

On June 8, the methanol market price index was 1983.5, down 7.6% from yesterday, or 0.38% from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on June 7:

China CFR 235-245USD / ton, down US $5 / tonne

European FOB 252.75-254.75 euros / ton, down 2.25 euros / ton

Us FOB 74-77 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asian CFR 299-301 US dollars / ton, down 8 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 1920-2000 (0), South: 1800 (0), North: & nbsp;1790-1860 (- 30), Lunan: 2030 (- 20), Henan: 2000-2030 (- 30), Shanxi: 1930-2030 (- 30), Port: 2070-2090 (20)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 200-270 (20ax 10), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 250-300 (10ax 10), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 100-150 (0ax 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 170-210 (20max 20)

Spot market: today, the price of methanol market is weak, and the spot price fluctuates 10-40 yuan / ton. at present, the fundamentals of methanol have not been significantly improved, the supply and demand side of the Chinese market is rising and falling, the mindset of operators in the market is more wait-and-see, and the trading atmosphere is poor; futures market volatility is strong, the basis is stable, and the port spot rigid demand is mainly replenished. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas has been partially reduced, with the central and southern route quotation of 1800 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, and the quotation of the northern line revolves around 1790-1860 yuan / ton, the lower end is reduced by 30 yuan / ton. at present, some enterprises in the field have great shipping pressure, and some areas continue to lower their quotations for shipments, but the deal is mediocre, and the operators in the field are pessimistic. In the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the operation of the methanol plant in the field. Guanzhong region market quotation is stable, today's quotation around 1920-2000 yuan / ton, maintain yesterday, the transaction situation is general. Consumer market prices have been partially reduced. Today, southern Shandong quoted 2030 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan / ton compared with yesterday, and northern Shandong quoted 2080 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday. At present, negotiations are limited and the trading atmosphere is general. The market price in North China has fallen, and the quotation in Hebei has been reduced by 20 yuan / ton at the low end around 1980-2030 yuan / ton. at present, the market demand is poor, and the cost price suppresses the mentality; the quotation in Shanxi region revolves around 1930-2030 yuan / ton, and the low-end price is reduced by 30 yuan / ton. The market price in southwest China is stable. The quotation of Yungui revolves around 2050-2150 yuan / ton and Sichuan-Chongqing 2050-2180 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday. At present, the cautious mood of the operators in the market is still there, and the market transaction atmosphere is general.

Port market: today, methanol futures shock consolidation. Spot part of the rigid demand. In recent months, contract negotiations are mainly conducted at a reasonable price; forward arbitrage trading is active, a small amount of goods are shipped at high prices, and the basis stabilizes. The overall deal is OK. 6 deal: 2070-2090, base difference 09: 30, margin: 2080-2095, base difference: 2070-2095, base difference: 2080-2100, basis difference: 2085-2090, basis difference: 09: 30, base difference: 2085-2090, basis difference: 2085-2090, basis difference 09: 30, base difference: 2085-2090, base difference: 2085-2090, base difference 09: 30, base difference: 2085-2090, base difference: 09-30, margin: 2085-2090, base difference 09-30, base difference 30-35, base difference 09, 30, 35, 30, 30, 35, 35, 30, 30, 35, 35, 30, 30, 35, 35, 30, 30, 35, 35, 30, 30, 35, 35, 30, 30, 30, 35, 35, 30, 30, 35, 35,

Future forecast: the price of raw coal is weak and stable in the near future, and the cost support is insufficient. At present, there are both overhaul and restart of the plant in the field, the overall supply has not been significantly reduced, from the point of view of the demand side, the traditional downstream demand is weak, and the load of olefin plant is unstable, the marginal favorable support of demand is limited, in the later stage, we should pay attention to the operation of methanol plant and olefin plant in the field. Overall, methanol market prices have fallen to a relatively low level, some areas are still under great shipping pressure and continue to lower quotations, the trading atmosphere is poor, coupled with the recent futures market to maintain low shocks, market pessimism intensified, it is expected that the short-term methanol market prices are weak, in the later stage, we also need to pay attention to crude oil, coal prices and the operation of on-site units.