Methanol: Supply pressure still exists Methanol futures fell to the top

On June 7, the methanol market price index was 1991.1, down 21.83 from yesterday and 1.08 per cent from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on June 6:

China's CFR is US $240,250USD / ton, down US $4 / tonne.

European FOB 255-257 euros / ton, down 1 euro / ton

Us FOB 74-77 cents per gallon, down 3 cents per gallon

Southeast Asia CFR 307-309 US dollars / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 1920-2000 (- 30), South: 1800 (0), North: & nbsp;1820-1860 (- 30), Lunan: 2050 (- 50), Henan: 2030-2050 (- 25), Shanxi: 1960-2030 (- 20), Port: 2050-2110 (- 70)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 170-260 (0ax 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 240-290 (0max 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 100-150 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 150-190 (20max 20)

Spot market: today, methanol market prices continue to decline, with spot prices falling by as much as 110 yuan / ton, futures market declining at an accelerated pace, spot demand is few, and port spreads continue to weaken; China's market supply is still abundant, but downstream demand improvement is limited, on-demand procurement is the main, on-site operators' mentality is more wait-and-see, and the trading atmosphere is poor. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas has been partially reduced, with the central and southern route quotation of 1800 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, and the quotation of the northern line revolves around 1820-1860 yuan / ton, the low-end reduction of 30 yuan / ton, the current market demand is difficult to have a good expectation, some enterprises continue to reduce prices to fill the gap, the overall transaction situation is general, in the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the operation of the methanol plant in the field. Guanzhong region market quotation fell, today's quotation around 1920-2000 yuan / ton, the low end reduced by 30 yuan / ton, the transaction is general. The market price of consumer land has been reduced. Today, southern Shandong quotes 2050 yuan / ton, the low end is reduced by 50 yuan / ton, the northern part of Shandong is quoted at 2080-2090 yuan / ton, and the low end is reduced by 10 yuan / ton. at present, the negotiations are limited and the trading atmosphere is general. The market price in North China has been partially lowered, and the quotation in Hebei region revolves around 2000-2050 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday. At present, the improvement of the atmosphere in the field is limited, and the downstream on-demand procurement; the quotation in Shanxi region revolves around 1960-2030 yuan / ton, and the low end is reduced by 20 yuan / ton. Market prices in southwest China have fallen partially, with Yungui quotation around 2050-2150 yuan / ton, low-end stable, Sichuan-Chongqing 2050-2180 yuan / ton, and low-end reduction of 10 yuan / ton. at present, the cautious mood of the market operators is still there, and the market transaction atmosphere is general.

Port market: methanol futures fluctuated lower today. There is little spot demand. Positive offer within the month, arbitrageurs take the initiative to sell goods, some rigid demand procurement, the basis continues to weaken, the price difference narrowed within the month. The forward shipment is slightly less, the basis fluctuation is small, and the structure of liter discount is changed. The overall transaction is active. 6 deal: 2050-2110, base difference 09: 35, base difference: 2050-2085, basis difference: 09: 35, base difference: 2040-2090, basis difference: 09: 30, margin: 2045-2085, basis difference: 2045-2070, basis difference: 09: 30: 35, basis: 2045-2070, basis difference: 09: 30: 35, base difference: 2045-2070, basis difference: 30: 35, margin: 2045-2085, basis: 2045-2070, base difference: 30: 35.

Future forecast: the recent weak and stable operation of raw material coal prices, insufficient cost support, in terms of methanol supply and demand fundamentals, on-site maintenance and restart devices, supply-side ups and downs, but the downstream part of the enterprise raw material inventory is high, procurement enthusiasm is not good, manufacturers multi-rigid demand purchase-based, demand side favorable support is limited, the market transaction atmosphere is slightly depressed. In the port market, the futures market has accelerated decline, and the basis continues to weak. up to now, the performance of the port regional inventory is different, and the ship unloading speed inside and outside the cycle in East China is good. Although there are entrepot ships loading and leaving, the total amount of pick-up in the mainstream area is still reduced, thus showing a tired storehouse. However, a small number of imports and domestic trade vessels arrived in Hong Kong during the week in South China, and against the background of steady pick-up volume in the mainstream region, regional inventory stopped increasing and falling. At present, the macro mood of the methanol market is poor, the supply pressure remains, the improvement of demand is limited, and the pessimism of the operators in the market is strong. It is expected that the price of methanol market will be weak in the short term, and in the later stage, we should pay attention to the prices of crude oil and coal as well as the operation of the plant in the field.