Methanol: Poor fundamentals performance, methanol is now weak and difficult to change

On June 6th, the methanol market price index was 2012.93, down 14.46 from yesterday, or 0.71% from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on June 5:

China CFR 244-249USD / ton, Ping

European FOB 256-258 euros / ton, down 2.50 euros / ton

Us FOB 77-80 cents per gallon, down 0.75 cents per gallon

Southeast Asia CFR 307-309 US dollars / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 1950-2050 (0), South: 1800-1820 (- 40), North: & nbsp;1850-1880 (0), Lunan: 2100 (- 20), Henan: 2055-2070 (- 5), Shanxi: 1980-2050 (10), Port: 2120-2160 (- 10)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 170-260 (0ram 0), South Line-North Shandong 240-290 (0ram 0), Shanxi-North Shandong 100-150 (0ram 0), Guanzhong-Southwestern Shandong 130-170 (0Universe 20)

Spot market: today, methanol market price is weak, spot price volatility is 5-40 yuan / ton, futures market volatility drops, port basis is weak, spot negotiations are light; with the gradual return of downstream olefin units in the Chinese market, the demand margin has improved slightly, but the resumption of some equipment in the market has brought the expectation of increased supply, the mindset of market operators is more wait-and-see, and the market transaction atmosphere is poor. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas has been partially reduced, with the quotation of 1800-1820 yuan / ton for the central and southern route, 40 yuan / ton for the low end, and the quotation for the northern route 1850-1880 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, at present, the market is affected by local low prices, the new prices of some enterprises are reduced, the transaction is slightly different, traders and downstream are mainly wait-and-see, in the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the operation of methanol plants in the field. Guanzhong region market quotation is stable, today's quotation around 1950-2050 yuan / ton, maintain yesterday, the transaction situation is general. The market price of consumer land has been reduced. Today, southern Shandong quotes 2100 yuan / ton, the low end is reduced by 20 yuan / ton, the northern part of Shandong is quoted at 2090 yuan / ton, and the low end is reduced by 10 yuan / ton. at present, the negotiations on the floor are limited and the trading atmosphere is general. The bidding price in today's market revolves around 2080-2090 yuan / ton, of which Shenchi chemical methanol bid price 2090 yuan / ton, Lihuayi 2090 yuan / ton, Oriental Hualong 2080 yuan / ton. Market prices in North China remain stable, Hebei quotation around 2000-2050 yuan / ton, Shanxi quotation around 1980-2050 yuan / ton, maintain yesterday, the current market demand is poor, manufacturers more stable price shipments. Market prices in southwest China have fallen, with Yungui quotation around 2050-2150 yuan / ton, low-end reduction of 50 yuan / ton, Sichuan and Chongqing 2060-2280 yuan / ton, and low-end reduction of 10 yuan / ton. at present, the cautious mood of market operators is still there, and the market transaction atmosphere is general.

Port market: methanol futures fell after concussion today. Spot negotiations are general; morning paper goods are actively shipped at high prices, arbitrage to receive goods; afternoon arbitrage offers increase, the basis continues to weaken. The price difference between far and near months has narrowed, and the overall transaction volume has been reduced slightly. Taicang main port transaction price: 6 transaction price: 2120-2160, base difference 09: 75, base difference: 2100-2160, basis difference: 09: 50, margin: 65, transaction price: 2090-2160, basis difference: 09: 50, margin: 65, transaction price: 2085-2140, basis difference: 09: 40, margin: 50, transaction: 2075-2125, basis difference: 09: 30: 35.

Future forecast: coal prices have stopped falling and stabilized recently, with a slight rebound in part, which has a certain support on the cost side. at present, the downstream MTO demand is expected to increase, and the margin of supply and demand has slightly improved. however, with Shanxi Jinfeng Wenxi and Shaanxi Weihua methanol plant restart, the Chinese market supply is also expected to increase, coupled with the port inventory is still high, the overall supply is still abundant, the market transaction atmosphere is weak. Some operators remain cautious and wait-and-see about the future. At present, the cost side is slightly boosted, China and port supply is still abundant, the improvement of supply and demand fundamentals is limited, methanol market prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and we need to pay attention to crude oil, coal prices and plant operation in the later stage.