Methanol: The transaction atmosphere is general. The methanol market is mixed

On June 5th, the methanol market price index was 2027.39, down 12.32 from the previous working day, and 0.60% lower than the previous working day.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on June 2:

China CFR 244256 US dollars / ton, up 4 US dollars / ton

European FOB 258.5-259 euros / ton, down 1.50 euros / ton

Us FOB 77.75-78.25 cents per gallon, down 0.25 cents per gallon

Southeast Asia CFR 307-309 US dollars / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 1950-2050 (0), South: 1840-1850 (0), North: 1850-1900 (0), Lunan: 2120-2130 (0), Henan: 2060-2080 (- 20), Shanxi: 19802050 (10), Port: 21302155 (- 15)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 170-260 (0ax 0), South Line-North Shandong 240-290 (0max 0), Shanxi-North Shandong 100-150 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 130-190 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the price of methanol is mixed, the spot price fluctuates by 10-50 yuan / ton, the futures market fluctuates low, the port basis is strong, and the buying gas improves slightly; the supply side of the Chinese market remains high, the demand side is favorable and the support is limited, the cautious mood of the operators in the market still exists, and the market transaction atmosphere is poor. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas has been partially reduced, with the quotation of 1840-1850 yuan / ton for the central and southern route and around the price for the northern route. 1850-1900 yuan / ton, maintained the previous working day, at present, some production enterprises in the field did not meet the expectations after the delivery of the goods, and some made up the gap. The operators had an obvious wait-and-see mentality. In the later stage, they still need to pay attention to the operation of the methanol plant in the field. The market quotation in Guanzhong area is stable, today's quotation revolves around 1950-2050 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, and the transaction is general. Shaanxi Changqing this week quoted methanol: 2000 tons quoted 2000 yuan / ton, 2000-2000 tons quoted 2010 yuan / ton, 300 tons quoted 2030 yuan / ton. At present, the 600000-ton methanol plant in the plant is operating normally. The consumer market is stable and small. Today, the quotation of southern Shandong revolves around 2120-2130 yuan / ton, and that of northern Shandong is 2100 yuan / ton. The low end is stable. At present, the negotiations on the market are general, and the operators at the beginning of the week wait and see. The market price in North China has been partially raised. Hebei quotation is around 2000-2050 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, the current market demand is poor, and the transaction focus is stable; Shanxi quotation is around 1980-2050 yuan / ton, the low end is raised by 10 yuan / ton. Market prices in southwest China remained stable, with quotations from Yunnan and Guizhou centering around 2100-2150 yuan / ton and Sichuan-Chongqing 2070-2280 yuan / ton, maintaining the previous working day. At present, the cautious mood of the operators in the market remains, and the market transaction atmosphere is general.

Port market: methanol futures rebounded after falling today. During the month of contract buying and selling negotiations, the basis is strong; forward arbitrage shipments are the main, after the fall of unilateral buying follow-up, the basis is slightly stronger, the spread widens within the month. The overall deal is OK. Taicang main port transaction price: spot order: 2140-2160, base difference 09 "95cm" 105 position 6 deal: 2130-2160, base difference 09 "75cm" 90 position 6 deal: 2125-2145, base difference 0965pm 75x 6 deal: 2110-2145, base difference 09" 65pm 70x 7 : 2090-2145, base difference 09: 50, base difference 09: 50, basis difference: 09: 40, basis difference: 2090-2110, basis difference 09: 40.

Future forecast: the recent raw material coal price continues to fall, methanol production cost support weakens, and with the expected restart of some units in Northwest China, supply may continue to increase, but the terminal downstream demand performance is general, Yangmei Hengtong MTO plant resumes, MTO start-up has improved, but part of the traditional downstream has entered the off-season of consumption, the market start-up load is reduced, methanol demand is difficult to increase significantly, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the market still exists in the short term. In addition, the low operation of the futures market affects the mentality of the market operators, the trading atmosphere in the market is not good, and some operators still have a wait-and-see mood for the future. At present, the contradiction between supply and demand of methanol is still the same, and the cautious mood of the operators in the field remains. It is expected that the price range of methanol market will fluctuate in the short term. In the later stage, we need to pay attention to the prices of crude oil and coal as well as the operation of the plant in the field.