Methanol: China and ports have different trends, poor transaction atmosphere

On June 1, the methanol market price index was 2042.68, up 3.37 from yesterday and 0.17% from the previous month. & nbsp

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on May 31:

China CFR 240,250USD / ton, Ping

European FOB 261263euros / ton, down 1 euro / ton

Us FOB 78-81 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asia CFR 307-309 US dollars / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 1950-2050 (0), South: 1840-1850 (- 60), North: 1870-1910 (- 30), Lunan: 2150 (- 20), Henan: 2070-2080 (20), Shanxi: 1970-2080 (10), Port: 2135,2180 (0)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 170-260 (10ax 10), South Line-North Shandong 220-290 (0max 0), Shanxi-North Shandong 100-150 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 130-190 (20max 10)

Spot market: today, methanol market prices are arranged in a narrow range, spot prices fluctuate within a range of 10-40 yuan / ton, the futures market is strong and volatile, the port spot is mainly shipped, the basis is weak, and the transaction is general; the overall supply in the Chinese market is still abundant, coupled with the expectation of an increase in supply brought by the restart of some devices in the market, and the demand boost in the downstream market is limited, the contradiction between supply and demand still exists, and the transaction atmosphere is not good. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are stable, including 1840-1850 yuan / ton for the south line, stable at the low end, and around the north line. 1840-1860 yuan / ton, low-end reduction-nbsp;30 yuan / ton, at present, affected by the local price drop and the restart of some maintenance equipment, the local shipping pressure increases, the market demand performance is weak, and the overall transaction is mediocre. In the later stage, we need to pay attention to the operation of the methanol plant in the field. Guanzhong region market quotation is stable, today's quotation around 1950-2050 yuan / ton, maintain yesterday, the transaction situation is general. The price in the consumer market is stable. Today's quotation in southern Shandong revolves around 2150 yuan per ton and quotation in northern Shandong. 2100-2130 yuan / ton, low-end stable, current on-site negotiations are general, rigid demand procurement is the main. The market price in North China is arranged in a narrow range. Hebei quotation revolves around 2030-2080 yuan / ton, and the low end is reduced by 20 yuan / ton. at present, the market atmosphere is still mediocre, and the wait-and-see mood of manufacturers is strong; Shanxi quotation revolves around 1970-2070 yuan / ton, and the low end is raised by 10 yuan / ton. Market prices in southwest China remain stable, with quotations of 2100-2150 yuan / ton for Yungui and 2070-2280 yuan / ton for Sichuan and Chongqing, with a stable low end. At present, the cautious mood of the market operators is still there, and the market transaction atmosphere is general.

Port market: today, methanol futures volatility is strong. Spot shipments mainly, a small amount of rigid demand; long-term high shipments, arbitrage buying mainly, the basis weakening obviously. The monthly gap between far and near has narrowed, and the deal is OK. Taicang main port transaction price: spot / small order: 2135-2180, the basis difference is 09 / 90 / 90 / 130 / 6 & nbsp;:2120-2130, the basis / margin is 09 / 80 / 90 / 6 / 6 : 2115-2130, the basis difference is 09: 70, the base difference is 09: 70, and the basis difference is: nbsp;:2110-2130, the basis difference is: 09: 65, the base difference is: 75: 75, the basis is: nbsp;:2090-2115, the basis difference is 09: 50, and the basis is 55.

Future forecast: coal prices continue to be weak in the near future, and the macro mood is not good. In terms of methanol supply and demand, some devices in Northwest China are ignited and the supply side is expected to increase, while the demand side is mixed, and the marginal favorable support of demand is limited. The contradiction between supply and demand of methanol itself still exists, and the transaction atmosphere is not good. The trend of China and the port is different, the futures market volatility is strong, the basis is weak, so far, the port regional inventory performance is different, East China has a good pick-up speed to support high-level table needs, thus showing the removal of warehousing. however, although the pick-up volume in the mainstream reservoir area in South China is stable during the cycle, and some re-export shipments are loaded at the port, it is still difficult to beat the trend of increasing supply. At present, the performance of the supply and demand side of the methanol market is poor, and the bearish sentiment of the operators in the market still exists, but at present, the methanol market price has fallen to a relatively low level, the profits of some manufacturers are poor, and there is little possibility of significantly lowering quotations in the short term. it is expected that the price of methanol market will be weak in the short term, and pay close attention to the follow-up of crude oil, coal prices and downstream demand in the later stage.