Daily review of urea: Northeast topdressing process starts, spot market stabilizes and rebounds (June 1)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on June 1 was 2,100.91, up 10.91 from yesterday, up 0.52% month-on-month, and down 35.96% year-on-year.

Urea futures market:

The market price of the urea UR2309 contract fell first and then rose today, and the trend of futures during the week gradually strengthened. After the opening of early trading, the futures price began to decline, falling to the lowest point in the press at 1695. Later prices fluctuated upward. In the afternoon, the market continued to fluctuate and gradually began an upward trend. In the end, it rose to a high of 1747 and closed at 1744. The opening price of the Urea UR2309 contract: 1740, the highest price: 1747, the lowest price: 1695, the settlement price: 1720, and the closing price: 1744. Compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, the closing price increased by 54, or 3.20%. The daily fluctuation range is 1695-1747, and the spread is 52; the 09 contract has increased its positions by 1264 lots today, and so far, it has held 344432 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea spot market prices continued to rise slightly, with prices rising by 10-30 yuan/ton in various mainstream regions. Driven by futures sentiment, coupled with the fact that corn topdressing has begun in the Northeast region, downstream dealers have an appropriate amount of replenishment for high-nitrogen fertilizers. Therefore, downstream replenishment enthusiasm has gradually increased, and the trading atmosphere in some markets has improved. Specifically, prices in Northeast China rose to 1,960 - 2,160 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 1,940 - 2,090 yuan/ton. Prices in Northwest China rose to 2040 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 1,800 - 2,500 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,090 - 2,150 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China rose to 2,050 - 2,400 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles rose to 2,160 - 2,300 yuan/ton. Prices in South China are stable at 2,050 - 2,230 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of futures, futures prices continued to rise during the week, bringing positive emotional support to the spot market. Observe the recent spot market: On the supply side, cost coal prices are weakening, factories are willing to produce, and new urea production capacity will be released in the long run. Therefore, supply may enter a surplus stage, and urea profits will passively expand as coal prices fall; On the demand side, some corn manure has been shipped in East China and North China, and the Northeast region has begun to enter the topdressing stage. Most compound fertilizer manufacturers produce on demand, and the industry continues to pick up. However, non-manufacturing real estate has been in a poor trend in the near future, and industrial demand has been unstable. Demand for urea is expected to increase slightly. Overall, the urea market may continue to fluctuate upward in the near future.