Daily review of urea: Factory receipts improved slightly and spot market prices rebounded slightly (May 31)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on May 31 was 2,090.00, up 10.23 from yesterday, up 0.49% month-on-month, and down 36.30% year-on-year.

Urea futures market:

The price of the Urea UR2309 contract rose today. After the market opened in early trading, the lowest point of 1643 quickly appeared, and then the futures price fluctuated upward. In the afternoon, futures prices began to rise, reaching today's intraday high of 1731 and closing at 1718 in late session. The opening price of the Urea UR2309 contract: 1660, the highest price: 1731, the lowest price: 1643, the settlement price: 1690, and the closing price: 1718. Compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, the closing price rose by 24, or 1.42%. The daily fluctuation range is 1643-1731, and the spread is 88; The 09 contract has increased its positions by 4694 lots today, and has held 343168 lots so far.

Spot market analysis:

Today, the price of urea in China's spot market was mainly rising, with prices in various places rebounded within a narrow range, with the price increase concentrated at 10-50 yuan/ton. On the supply side, as prices continue to fall, factory orders have improved, and new orders have increased. However, raw coal prices continue to weaken, and there is no support on the cost side. On the demand side, it is reported that the Northeast market has begun to top dressing, and agricultural demand has increased. Specifically, prices in Northeast China rose to 1,960 - 2,130 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 1,910 - 2,050 yuan/ton. Prices in Northwest China rose to 2020 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 1,800 - 2,500 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,080 - 2,140 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has risen to 2,020 - 2,400 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles has stabilized at 2,140 - 2,300 yuan/ton. Prices in South China fell to 2,050 - 2,230 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of futures, futures prices rose again today, and the performance of the futures market improved slightly during the week. We need to continue to pay attention to whether futures prices can continue to strengthen to support the spot market. On the supply side, cost coal prices continue to weaken, and previous quotations continue to fall and factory orders have improved. Production is currently active and supply is sufficient. On the demand side, yesterday's judgment was maintained. Some corn manure was shipped in East China and North China, but most compound fertilizer manufacturers are still digesting stocks, and some manufacturers are also producing on demand. The operating rate of compound fertilizer manufacturers across the country continues to rebound slightly. After entering June, there may be a wave of demand for urea. However, the real estate industry has been performing poorly recently, and industrial demand has been unstable. It is expected that the market will enter a volatile operating trend in the short term.