Methanol: Bad trading atmosphere. The methanol spot market continues to fall

On May 31, the methanol market price index was 2039.31, down 29.86 from yesterday and 1.44 per cent from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on May 30:

China CFR 240,249 US dollars / ton, up 7 US dollars / ton

European FOB 262264euros / ton, down 1 euro / ton

Us FOB 78-81 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asian CFR 307-309 US dollars / ton, down 2 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 1950-2050 (0), South: 1840-1850 (- 60), North: 1870-1910 (- 30), Lunan: 2150 (- 20), Henan: 2050-2060 (- 30), Shanxi: 1960-2060 (- 50), Port: 21352140 (- 20)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 160-250 (- 10max 0), South Line-North Shandong 220-290 (0max 0), Shanxi-North Shandong 100-150 (- 10max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 110-180 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the methanol market continues to fall, the spot price fluctuation range is 10-90 yuan / ton, the futures market is weak, the port spot demand is replenished, the basis stabilizes and buys gas in general; the overall supply in the Chinese market is still abundant, coupled with the expectation of an increase in supply brought by the restart of some devices in the market, and the weak demand in the downstream market is difficult to change, the Chinese market is still in the situation of oversupply, and the transaction atmosphere is not good. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas is reduced, the price of the central and southern route is 1840-1850 yuan / ton, and the low end is reduced & nbsp;60 yuan / ton, and the quotation of the north line revolves around 1870-1910 yuan / ton, low-end down-nbsp;30 yuan / ton, at present, affected by the restart of some maintenance devices, the market trading atmosphere is weak, traders and downstream wait-and-see mentality, later need to pay attention to the operation of methanol plant in the field. Guanzhong region market quotation is stable, today's quotation around 1950-2050 yuan / ton, maintain yesterday, the transaction situation is general. Consumer market prices fell, today Lunan quotation around 2150 yuan / ton, low-end reduction & nbsp;20 yuan / ton, Lubei quotation 2100-2130 yuan / ton, low-end reduction-nbsp;10 yuan / ton, the current on-site negotiations are general, rigid demand procurement. The market price in North China has been partially lowered, and Hebei quotation revolves around 2050-2080 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, the current market atmosphere is still flat, and the manufacturers have a strong wait-and-see mood; Shanxi quotation revolves around 1960-2070 yuan / ton, and the low end is reduced by 50 yuan / ton. Market prices in southwest China are mixed. Yungui quotation revolves around 2100-2150 yuan / ton, low-end price is stable, Sichuan-Chongqing 2070-2280 yuan / ton, and low-end price increases 10 yuan / ton. at present, the cautious mood of market operators still exists, and the market transaction atmosphere is general.

Port market: methanol futures fluctuated low today. Spot trading is light and the transaction is limited. Forward part of the high shipments, mainly buying arbitrage, the basis stabilized slightly weaker. The overall deal was average. Spot transaction: 2135-2145, basis 09: 130; transaction & nbsp;:2085-2120; basis: 09: 95; 100: 100; transaction: nbsp;:2075-2100; basis: 09: 80: 85; & nbsp;:2055-2085; basis: 09: 60: 70.

Future forecast: recent coal prices continue to decline, cost support is insufficient, Xinjiang Guanghui 1.2 million tons, Gansu Huating 600000 tons methanol plant restart, Ningxia Baofeng Phase III 2.4 million tons methanol plant operation is stable, on-site supply is expected to increase, demand side, MTO demand is expected to increase, traditional downstream demand is expected to decrease, demand boost is limited in the short term, the market is still oversupplied, and operators in the field are still cautious. In the port market, the futures market is weak and volatile, and spot trading is light. Up to now, the inventory performance in the port area is different, and the pick-up speed in East China supports the high-level demand, thus showing the removal of warehouses. however, although the pick-up volume in the mainstream reservoir area in South China is stable during the cycle, and some re-export shipments are loaded at the port, it is still difficult to beat the trend of increasing supply. At present, the contradiction between supply and demand in the methanol market still exists, the market demand shows no signs of picking up for the time being, and the mentality of the operators is depressed. It is expected that the methanol market price will continue to fluctuate in the short term, and pay close attention to the follow-up of crude oil, coal prices and downstream demand in the later stage.