Daily review of urea: regional release of demand for compound fertilizers Differential operation of urea market (May 30)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on May 30 was 2,079.77, down 17.73 from yesterday, down 0.85% month-on-month, and down 36.63% year-on-year.

Urea futures market:

The Urea UR2309 contract rose after the opening of early trading today, reaching a peak of 1727 and then fluctuated and fell. In the afternoon, the futures price continued to fall to the intraday low of 1659, and then fluctuated upward in a narrow range, closing at 1681 at the end. The opening price of the urea UR2309 contract: 1678, the highest price: 1727, the lowest price: 1659, the settlement price: 1694, the closing price: 1681. The closing price increased by 7 compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, or 0.42%. The fluctuation range throughout the day is 1659-1727, and the spread is 68; The 09 contract has reduced its position by 13743 lots today, and has held 338474 lots so far.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea spot market performed mixed. Prices in most regions were mixed, but prices in Sichuan and Dali regions fell by 150-250 yuan/ton. Currently, the Sichuan price has dropped to 1800. Although compared with the data at the beginning of the month, the shipment of downstream compound fertilizers has improved, overall, terminal demand has been delayed this year, and a cautious wait-and-see attitude towards raw material procurement is adopted. Specifically, prices in Northeast China fell to 1,950 - 2,130 yuan/ton. Prices in North China fell to 1,900 - 2,050 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 1980-1990 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China fell to 1,800 - 2,500 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,070 - 2,140 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has risen to 2,000 - 2,400 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles has stabilized at 2,140 - 2,300 yuan/ton. Prices in South China fell to 2,050 - 2,300 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

Recently, urea prices have been falling and falling, mainly due to the continued high level of urea production, the decline in coal prices, and weak cost support. In terms of futures, futures prices rose slightly today, but observing the Bollinger Band's three-track track, the three-track track still has no support for futures prices, and the futures trend is unlikely to be good for the spot market. In terms of demand, some corn manure is shipped in East China and North China, but most compound fertilizer manufacturers are still digesting stocks, and some manufacturers produce on demand. The operating rate of compound fertilizer manufacturers across the country continues to rebound slightly. After June, there may be demand for urea. However, the real estate industry has been performing poorly recently, and industrial demand has been unstable. Therefore, urea prices across the country are mixed, and the performance of various regions in the market is inconsistent. Overall, the urea market mentality is mainly short and is operating in a weak position in the short term.