Daily review of urea: Futures prices rose slightly, spot prices still fell, urea exports have no advantage (May 29)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on May 29 was 2,097.50, down 30.68 from yesterday, down 1.44% month-on-month, and down 36.01% year-on-year.

Urea futures market:

The price of the urea UR2309 contract fell after the opening of early trading today, falling to the lowest intraday point of 1654, and the price rose. However, the strength was not strong. It rose to the highest intraday point of 1696, and the price fluctuated downward. In the afternoon, the futures price continued to fluctuate, closing at 1673 in late trading. The opening price of the urea UR2309 contract: 1682, the highest price: 1696, the lowest price: 1654, the settlement price: 1674, the closing price: 1673. The closing price increased by 28, or 1.70% compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day. The daily fluctuation range is 1654-1696, and the spread is 42; The 09 contract has increased its positions by 20381 lots today, and so far, it has held 352217 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea spot market prices have fallen widely. The urea market has been declining continuously since the weekend. Transaction prices in mainstream regions have even fallen below 2000. There are no obvious signs of improvement in market transactions. At present, China will enter the busy wheat harvest period from south to north, but the weather has affected the wheat harvest progress, and urea prices continue to drop. Specifically, prices in Northeast China fell to 1,950 - 2,130 yuan/ton. Prices in North China fell to 1,870 - 2,050 yuan/ton. Prices in Northwest China fell to 1980-1990 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,050 - 2,600 yuan/ton. Prices in East China fell to 2,050 - 2,120 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China fell to 1,960 - 2,400 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles fell to 2,140 - 2,300 yuan/ton. Prices in South China fell to 2,080 - 2,300 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of futures, futures prices rose slightly today, but observing that Bollinger Band has three tracks, the three tracks have no support for futures prices, and the futures trend is unlikely to be good for the spot market. In terms of supply, under the influence of cost coal, supply may only increase but not decrease in the near future, with a daily output of around 165,000 tons. On the demand side, due to the weather, the wheat harvest from south to north may be delayed, but high-nitrogen fertilizer production has come to an end. Terminal merchants are mostly watching the market and are not enthusiastic about purchasing. Overall, agricultural demand performance is not strong. In terms of industrial demand, it is also reflected in the poor performance of the terminal real estate industry. Therefore, upstream factories are cautious in starting construction and raw material procurement attitude is wait-and-see. At present, the international price of urea is still low, and exports are not good. Overall, the urea market mentality is short, and both declines in the current period are negative for each other. There is a high probability that spot prices will continue to fall in the later period.