Methanol: Panic sentiment slightly released, methanol is now recovering from low levels

On May 29th, the methanol market price index was 2067.88, up 15.83 from the previous working day and 0.77% higher than the previous working day.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on May 26:

China CFR US $245-252 / ton, Ping

European FOB 263265euros / ton, down 4 euros / ton

Us FOB 78-81 cents per gallon, down 1 cent per gallon

CFR in Southeast Asia ranged from US $309 to US $311 per ton, down US $14 per ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2000-2020 (0), South: 1900 (0), North: 1900-1950 (0), Lunan: 2170-2200 (70), Henan: 2110-2145 (50), Shanxi: 2010-2145 (10), Port: 21552210 (55)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 170-250 (20thumb 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 230-290 (0max 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 110-150 (10max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 110-180 (- 40max 10)

Spot market: today, the spot market quotation for methanol has been raised by a narrow range, with a price increase of 10-100 yuan / ton, the futures market is volatile, the rigid demand is mainly bought, the basis is strong, and the overall transaction situation is general; the supply in the Chinese market is still abundant, the restart of the MTO plant has not yet been implemented, the supply and demand benefit support is limited, and the market sentiment stalemate is weak. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas is stable and small, with the quotation of 1900 yuan / ton for the middle and south route and around the north line. 1900-1950 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, at present, affected by the rebound of the futures market, the market atmosphere has slightly improved, some enterprises have raised their quotations for shipment, but the purchase price is more wait-and-see, the transaction is general, and the later stage needs to pay attention to the operation of the methanol plant in the field. The market quotation in Guanzhong area is stable, today's quotation is around 2000-2020 yuan / ton, and the transaction is general. Shaanxi Changqing methanol quotation this week: large single quotation 2050 yuan / ton, small single quotation 2060 yuan / ton. At present, the 600000-ton methanol plant in the plant is operating normally. The price in the consumer market has been partially raised. Today, the quotation in southern Shandong revolves around 2170-2200 yuan / ton, and the low end increases & nbsp;70 yuan / ton, and quotation in northern Shandong. 2140-2150 yuan / ton, low-end reduction-nbsp;10 yuan / ton, the current on-site negotiations are general, operators at the beginning of the week wait and see mainly. The market price in North China has been partially raised, and Hebei quotation revolves around 2080-2130 yuan / ton, maintaining the previous working day, but the current trading volume is light and the downstream demand is obviously restrained; the quotation in Shanxi region revolves around it. 2010-2050 yuan per ton, with a low-end increase of 10 yuan per ton. Market prices in southwest China remained stable, with quotations from Yunnan and Guizhou centering around 2170-2300 yuan / ton and Sichuan-Chongqing 2170-2280 yuan / ton, maintaining the previous working day. At present, the cautious mood of the operators in the market remains, and the market transaction atmosphere is weak.

Port market: today, methanol futures shock consolidation. Limited selling within the month, rigid demand buying follow-up, the basis is significantly stronger; long-term arbitrage negotiations, some high shipments, the basis is slightly stronger in June, stabilized in July, and the price difference between far and near months widened. The overall deal is OK. Taicang main port transaction price: today transaction: 2155-2210, base difference 09: 135pm 160 position 6 deal: 2140-2155, base difference 09x100 pound 110x 6 deal: 2110-2140, basis difference 0985pm 90cross 7 : 2095-2115, the basis difference is 0965.

Future forecast: coal continues to be weak in the near future, cost-side support performance is weak, sufficient supply in the field, coupled with the planned recovery of some parking devices, the supply side may continue to increase, from the demand side point of view, the substantive implementation of the restart of MTO devices has not yet been determined, the traditional downstream demand is still weak, and the weak demand situation has not changed significantly for the time being. generally speaking, if the downstream MTO devices can restart as scheduled, the marginal increase in demand is expected to be realized. The market may rebound moderately, but supply is expected to increase synchronously, while coal prices are weak and difficult to change. Methanol market prices are expected to continue to be weak and volatile in the short term, and pay close attention to crude oil, coal prices and downstream demand in the later stage.