Methanol: Good news released methanol main contract oversold and rebounded

On May 26th, the methanol market price index was 2052.05, up 0.28 from yesterday, or 0.01% from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on May 25:

China CFR 245250 USD / ton, down US $3 / tonne

European FOB 267269euros / ton, down 3 euros / ton

Us FOB 79-82 cents per gallon, down 1 cent per gallon

Southeast Asian CFR 323-325 US dollars / ton, down 2 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2000-2010 (0), South: 1900 (0), North: 1900-1950 (- 10), Lunan: 2100 (- 20), Henan: 2060-2070 (0), Shanxi: 2000-2080 (0), Port: 21002165 (- 25)

Freight:

Northern Route-Northern Shandong 150-250 (10ax 20), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 230-290 (0max 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 100-150 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 150-170 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the price decline in the methanol spot market has slowed down. With the release of MTO good news, the mood of operators in the market has improved, and the futures market has rebounded from the lowest price of 1953 to close at 2049. However, considering that the current market supply and demand margin has not significantly improved, the market wait-and-see mood still exists, traders and terminal downstream cautious mood still exists, the overall trading atmosphere in the market is slightly general. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas has been partially raised, with the central and southern route quotation of 1900 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, and the quotation of the northern line revolves around 1900-1950 yuan / ton, the low-end down 10 yuan / ton, the current bearish mentality still exists in the field, some enterprises auction, buy more wait-and-see, the transaction is general, the later stage also need to pay attention to the operation of methanol plant in the field. Guanzhong region market quotation is stable, today's quotation around 2000-2010 yuan / ton, maintain yesterday, the transaction situation is general. The price of the consumer market fell partially. Today, the quotation in southern Shandong revolves around 2100 yuan / ton, while the lower end is reduced by 20 yuan / ton. 2150 yuan / ton, low-end upward & nbsp;10 yuan / ton, the current floor negotiations are general, the market trading atmosphere is limited. Market prices in North China are stable, Hebei quotation around 2080-2130 yuan / ton, maintain yesterday, the current trading volume is light, downstream demand restraint is obvious; Shanxi quotation around 2000-2080 yuan / ton, low-end stability. Southwest market prices remain stable, Yunnan-Gui quotation around 2170-2300 yuan / ton, Sichuan and Chongqing 2170-2280 yuan / ton, maintain yesterday, the current market industry's confidence in the future is not enough, the transaction is general.

Port market: methanol futures rose today. The selling order is sold at a fixed price in recent months, and there is a rigid demand for replenishment; when the long-term part is shipped at a high price, it will be actively followed up in the morning and slowed down in the afternoon. The current basis difference is strong and stable, the exchange of goods is frequent in recent months, and the monthly difference is enlarged. Overall transaction volume. Taicang main port transaction price: within the month, transaction price: 2110-2180, base difference: 09: 120, base difference: 2075: 2140, basis difference: 09: 95: 100, transaction price: 2110-2120, basis difference: 09: 80, margin: 90: 6 : 2055-2130, the basis difference is 09 "70 pounds", "85 percent" 7, deal: 2035-2115, the base difference 09 "60 pounds", "70 minutes 07" 20 pounds 25.

Future forecast: with the recent continuous decline in methanol prices, some downstream profits have been repaired, and some olefin units plan to restart. With the release of the news of MTO plant plan restart, some operators' panic has been alleviated and the futures market has rebounded. However, considering the contradiction between supply and demand of methanol itself and the continued weak volatility of coal prices, there is no favorable support on the cost side for the time being. It is difficult to find favorable support for market prices in the short term, most operators in the market are still bearish about the future, the enthusiasm for replenishment in the market is not high, and the actual transaction is limited. Generally speaking, methanol market prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and we need to pay attention to the implementation of the restart of downstream MTO units. If we can restart as scheduled, with the release of demand, the Chinese market prices may be raised. In the later stage, pay close attention to crude oil, coal prices and downstream demand follow-up.