Methanol: Some regions in China have fallen below the 2000 mark and the decline in the methanol market is difficult to change

On May 24, the methanol market price index was 2081.3, down 72.69 from yesterday, or 3.37% from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on May 23:

China CFR 248252USD / t, Ping

European FOB 270,272 euros / ton, down 1 euro / ton

Us FOB 80-83 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asian CFR 328,330US dollars / ton, down 1 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2000-2050 (- 50), South: 1940 (- 120), North: 1910-2000 (- 2000), Lunan: 2120 (- 80), Henan: 2070-2090 (- 30), Shanxi: 2040-2100 (0), Port: 21452180 (0)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 140-210 (- 10Uniqure 10), South Route-North Shandong 230-290 (0max 0), Shanxi-North Shandong 100-150 (- 10max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 150-180 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the price of methanol continues to fall, and the price quoted in the Chinese market has dropped by 140yuan / ton. at present, the overall supply in the market is still abundant, and the weak demand in the downstream market is difficult to change, and the Chinese market is still in a situation where supply exceeds demand. In addition, the futures market continues to decline, and the bearish sentiment of the operators in the market is obvious. The quotations of some manufacturers in the main producing areas have fallen below 2000 yuan / ton, of which the southern line quoted 1940 yuan / ton. The low end is reduced by 120 yuan / ton, and the quotation of the north line revolves around 1910-2000 yuan / ton, the low end is reduced by 170yuan / ton. at present, the bearish mentality in the field is obvious, and some enterprises continue to lower their quotations for shipment, but the purchase price is more wait-and-see, the transaction is general, and in the later stage, we need to pay attention to the operation of the methanol plant in the field. The market quotation in Guanzhong region has been lowered, today's quotation is around 2000-2050 yuan / ton, and the low end is lowered. 50 yuan per ton, the transaction is limited. Shaanxi Changqing methanol has been lowered by 100 yuan / ton twice this week: 2000 yuan / ton for large single price and 2010 yuan / ton for small single price. At present, the 600000-ton methanol plant in this plant is operating normally. The market price of consumer land has fallen. Today, the price of southern Shandong is around 2120 yuan / ton, the low end is reduced by 80 yuan / ton, the price of northern Shandong is 2140-2160 yuan / ton, and the low end is reduced by 20 yuan / ton. at present, the negotiations on the market are general, and the market trading atmosphere is limited. Market prices in North China have been partially reduced, and Hebei quotation revolves around 2130-2150 yuan / ton, low-end down 70 yuan / ton, the current market atmosphere is depressed, the factory wait-and-see mainly; Shanxi quotation around 2040-2100 yuan / ton, maintain yesterday. The market price in southwest China has been partially reduced, with Yungui quotation around 2170-2300 yuan / ton, low-end reduction of 80 yuan / ton, Sichuan and Chongqing 2170-2280 yuan / ton, low-end stability. At present, the market operators lack confidence in the future, and the transaction is average.

Port market: methanol futures range fluctuated today. Spot demand is light, paper goods in the morning arbitrage and exchange negotiations, a slight stalemate. Unilateral shipments increased in the afternoon, and the basis remained stable. The overall deal is OK. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2160-2180, base difference 09: 100, base difference: 2145-2180, base difference: 09: 90, margin: 95: 6, basis: 2145-2160, base difference: 09: 75, transaction: 2115-2150, basis difference: 09: 60, margin: 65: 7 : 2110-2145, the basis difference is 09 / 55 / 55 / 60.

Future forecast: coal prices continue to decline in the near future, lack of cost support, the Chinese market, a large plant in Ningxia is expected to start at the end of the month, to a certain extent, offset the positive impact of parking maintenance of some devices on supply in the field, coupled with weak downstream demand, manufacturers more on-demand procurement, short-term demand boost is limited, the market is still oversupplied. In the port market, the futures market fluctuates in a narrow range. Up to now, the inventory performance in the port area is different, and the pick-up speed in East China is relatively good. Some ships are sent to the surrounding areas, supporting the wide reduction of inventories. However, the arrival speed of imported goods in South China is relatively concentrated during the week, and the inventory accumulation is obvious. At present, the contradiction between supply and demand in the methanol market still exists, there is no sign of recovery in the market, and the mentality of the operators is depressed. It is expected that the spot price of methanol will continue to be weak in the short term, and we need to pay attention to the prices of crude oil, coal and the operation of the plant in the field in the later stage.