Daily Review of Urea: The contradiction between supply and demand continues to ferment and the market is not good (May 24)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on May 24 was 2,186.59, down 10.45 from yesterday, down 0.48% month-on-month, and down 33.37% year-on-year.

Urea futures market:

The price of the urea UR2309 contract fluctuated mainly today. The high point of 1674 was reached in the early opening period, and the late price fluctuated to the lowest point of 1641. Futures prices continued to fluctuate in the afternoon and closed in late session

1658。The opening price of the Urea UR2309 contract: 1667, the highest price: 1674, the lowest price: 1641, the settlement price: 1657, the closing price fell by 36 compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, a decrease of 2.13%. The daily fluctuation range is 1641-1674, and the spread is 33; the 09 contract has increased its position by 1167 lots today, and has held 321332 lots so far.

Spot market analysis:

Today, the decline in the center of gravity of China's urea spot market price slowed down, with prices falling by 10-30 yuan/ton in some regions. Recently, the urea spot market has maintained a state of high daily production and low demand, and the market has not shown any positive results. And under the impact of falling coal prices, some urea companies are reluctant to stop or stop production even if profits are not high. Specifically, prices in Northeast China fell to 2,030 - 2,130 yuan/ton. Prices in North China fell to 1,950 - 2,180 yuan/ton. Prices in Northwest China fell to 2,140 - 2,150 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,200 - 2,600 yuan/ton. Prices in East China fell to 2,150 - 2,200 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China fell to 2,020 - 2,400 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles stabilized at 2,350 - 2,380 yuan/ton. Prices in South China fell to 2,280 - 2,400 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of futures, futures prices plunged yesterday, and the basis for futures and current futures continued to widen. Futures and spot markets were negative factors for each other and may continue to fall together in the later period. On the supply side, under the influence of coal cost, supply may only increase but not decrease in the near future. In terms of demand, late May is the busy season for buyers and farmers, and market transactions may temporarily stagnate, making it difficult to expect good demand. In terms of exports, India's bidding information has not yet been released, and exports are not yet favorable. On the whole, the peak season for agricultural demand is "not strong", the market mentality is negative, and the urea market may continue to explore in the short term.