Urea Daily Review: Spot prices fall! Agricultural needs appear but cannot support the market (May 22)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on May 22 was 2,248.64, down 31.36 from yesterday, down 1.38% month-on-month, and down 31.61% year-on-year.

Urea futures market:

The Urea UR2309 contract reached an intraday high of 1773 at the opening of early trading today, and the futures price subsequently maintained a narrow decline. In the afternoon, the futures price fluctuated and fell to a low of 1706 in the late session, closing at 1711. The opening price of the Urea UR2309 contract: 1771, the highest price: 1773, the lowest price: 1706, the settlement price: 1735, the closing price: 1711. The closing price dropped 86, or 4.79% compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day. The daily fluctuation range is 1706-1773, and the spread is 67; The 09 contract has increased its positions by 7419 lots today, and so far, it has held 289671 lots.

Spot market analysis:

At the beginning of the week, China's urea spot market prices continued to fall comprehensively. Although most manufacturers introduced minimum protection policies, the enthusiasm for terminal procurement was still not high, and new orders were traded in the spot market today. In terms of supply, production of pre-maintenance equipment has been resumed one after another, and the current market supply is sufficient. In terms of demand, it is okay to start construction of compound fertilizers, but most of them are just in need of purchasing and orders are placed carefully. Specifically, prices in Northeast China fell to 2,100 - 2,310 yuan/ton. Prices in North China fell to 2,000 - 2,250 yuan/ton. Prices in Northwest China fell to 2,200 - 2,210 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,200 - 2,600 yuan/ton. Prices in East China fell to 2,210 - 2,260 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China fell to 2,200 - 2,450 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles stabilized at 2,390 - 2,410 yuan/ton. Prices in South China fell to 2,300 - 2,400 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of futures, futures prices fell within a narrow range today. The overall trend of the futures market has been poor recently, and it is difficult to provide good guidance for the spot market. In terms of supply, maintenance equipment in Henan and other places is currently resuming production, supply of goods from factories in the northwest region is exported, and supply across the country may continue to increase. In terms of demand, overall, the construction of compound fertilizer companies is okay, but the delivery of corn manure in East and Central China is relatively slow, and the procurement enthusiasm of plywood factories is average. Overall demand is still expected to be good. In terms of exports, India's second tender is still not released, and India's urea production in China has increased compared with previous years. It is reported that the urea export data in April performed relatively generally, and export demand is difficult to form a positive support. Overall, although it is in the peak season for urea farmers, the market mentality is unstable and demand can only slow down the spot decline. It is unlikely that the urea market will rebound in the short term.