Gasoline (20230522): Terminal demand is weak, and the market has little room to boost

Gasoline: the end demand is weak, and there is little room for the market to push up.

International crude oil closed

 

Date	Market	Specifications	Close (US dollars / barrel)	Rise and fall
20230519	America	WTI	71.55	-0.31
20230519	The United Kingdom	Brent	75.58	-0.28

 

Gasoline price index

On May 22, China's gasoline price index fell 9.78, or 0.11%, to 8698.09, while China's gasoline price index fell 7.48, or 0.08%, to 8992.52. The 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index were both downgraded, and the price difference between the 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index was 294.43.

 

Gasoline market analysis:

Today, the wholesale price of gasoline in China has been reduced, of which the price of gasoline in North China, Central China and East China has been reduced by 50 yuan per ton, mostly concentrated in high-end prices. Gasoline prices in South China, Northwest China, Southwest China and Northeast China are stable for the time being. The ex-factory prices of geo-refining have been sorted out in some areas, among which the prices of 9-kilogram and 9-kilowatt gasoline in North China, East China and Northwest China have been reduced by a range of 40-60 yuan per ton. Gasoline prices in Shandong, Central China and Northeast China fluctuated in the price range. At present, the turnover of China's gasoline market is mediocre, downstream traders maintain the previous level, and rigid demand is dominated by procurement. Refinery shipping speed is general, more preferential efforts to achieve the purpose of stimulating shipments. On the whole, the buying and selling atmosphere is weak and the market is weak.

 

May 22 main wholesale price of gasoline (yuan / ton)
Area	Gasoline model	Price 5.19	Price 5.22	Rise and fall
North China region	92#	8560-8900	8560-8850	0/-50
	95#	8760-9100	8760-9050	0/-50
South China	92#	8750-9100	8750-9100	0/0
	95#	8950-9400	8950-9400	0/0
Central China	92#	8600-9050	8600-9000	0/-50
	95#	8750-9250	8750-9200	0/-50
East China region	92#	8500-9000	8500-8950	0/-50
	95#	8700-9100	8700-9050	0/-50
Northwestern region	92#	8500-9470	8500-9470	0/0
	95#	8700-10030	8700-10030	0/0
Southwest China	92#	8800-9150	8800-9150	0/0
	95#	9000-9600	9000-9600	0/0
Northeast China	92#	8480-8700	8480-8700	0/0
	95#	8800-9150	8800-9150	0/0

 

The ex-factory price of gasoline refinery on May 22 (RMB / ton)
Area	Gasoline model	Price 5.19	Price 5.22	Rise and fall
Shandong area	92#	8100-8400	8100-8400	0/0
	95#	8200-8600	8200-8600	0/0
North China region	92#	8270-8270	8210-8220	-60/-50
	95#	8370-8370	8310-8320	-60/-50
Central China	92#	8540-8540	8540-8540	0/0
	95#	8740-8740	8740-8740	0/0
East China region	92#	8230-8350	8230-8310	0/-40
	95#	8380-8500	8380-8460	0/-40
Northwestern region	92#	8100-8400	8050-8400	-50/0
	95#	8200-8600	8150-8600	-50/0
Northeast China	92#	8550-8550	8550-8550	0/0
	95#	8750-8750	8750-8750	0/0

 

Future forecast

From the perspective of international crude oil, concerns about the US debt ceiling have abated, but the Fed is expected to raise interest rates in June, international crude oil prices have fallen, and international crude oil has no positive support. On the supply side, the operating rate of Chinese refineries remains stable, and with the refinery maintenance and improvement, there is still room for refinery processing capacity to increase. On the export side, the upside-down of profits leads to increased export pressure. At present, although the use of automotive air-conditioning oil increases in summer, the boost is limited, and there are no obvious favorable factors on the demand side. China's gasoline resources are relatively abundant and the demand is flat, so it is difficult for the gasoline market to push up. Taken together, it is expected that there are still downside risks in China's gasoline market prices in the short term.

 

Maximum retail price list of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities

Since 24:00 on May 16, 2023, the prices of gasoline and diesel in China (the same below) will be reduced by RMB380,365 per ton respectively. After the adjustment, the maximum retail prices of gasoline and diesel in all provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) and central cities are shown in the attached table. The date of the price adjustment will be 24:00 on May 16, 2023, the fourth working day in China since the price adjustment was announced by the National Development and Reform Commission.

 

Schedule

Maximum retail price of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities

Unit: yuan / ton

	I. areas with one province and one price
	Gasoline (standard)	Diesel oil (standard)
Beijing	9275	8255
Tianjin	9240	8220
Hebei Province	9240	8220
Shanxi province	9310	8275
Liaoning province	9240	8220
Jilin Province	9240	8220
Heilongjiang province	9240	8220
Shanghai	9255	8225
Jiangsu Province	9295	8260
Zhejiang Province	9295	8275
Anhui province	9290	8270
Fujian Province	9315	8285
Jiangxi province	9295	8280
Shandong province	9250	8230
Hubei province	9265	8245
Hunan Province	9305	8305
Henan province	9260	8240
Hainan province	9385	8355
Chongqing	9455	8430
Guangdong province	9320	8290
Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region	9385	8355
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region	9245	8220
Gansu province	9225	8240
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region	9020	8115
II. Areas with one province and one price will not be implemented for the time being
	Gasoline (standard)	Diesel oil (standard)
Hohhot	9255	8235
Chengdu city	9460	8455
Guiyang city	9420	8380
Kunming City	9450	8410
Xi'an city	9225	8230
Xining City	9205	8265

                                                                

Note: 1. The prices in the table include consumption tax, value-added tax, urban construction tax and additional education fees.

2. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil in the table are in line with the compulsory national standards of VIA and Ⅵ in the sixth stage.

3. The sixth stage standard of gasoline and diesel is gasoline and No. 0 vehicle diesel respectively.

4. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil that meet the quality standards of the sixth stage for the national reserve and the Xinjiang production and Construction Corps are 8510 yuan and 7490 yuan per ton respectively, and other relevant oil price policies shall be implemented in accordance with the provisions of the measures for Oil Price Management.