Ethanol: China's ethanol market dynamics

The price index of general-grade ethanol was 6127.50 on May 19th, which was stable compared with the previous working day.

China's ethanol market is stable and the transaction expression is light. Hot spots on May 19: first, prices in Henan are stable, and large factories continue to shut down. Second, the quotations of enterprises in East China are stable. Third, the price in Northeast China is stable. Fourth, the bidding price of ethyl acetate is stable.

Specifically, the northeast enterprise quotation is stable, order delivery. The installation of the Mengzhou factory in Henan area is not open, and the price is stable. East China quotation is stable, order delivery, chemical sporadic procurement. Jilin market price of 6250-6450 yuan / ton. The general grade of Heilongjiang market is 6050-6200 yuan / ton, and the waterless market is 6900-7000 yuan / ton. The superior enterprises in Central China offer 6550-6600 yuan / ton, and the price of no water is 7400 yuan / ton. The price of ethanol in East China is 6400-6500 yuan / ton. The price of anhydrous ethanol is 7300-7400 yuan / ton, and the general price in southern Jiangsu is 6600-6750 yuan / ton. Cassava ethanol 6700-6800 yuan / ton in Guangxi, South China.

& nbsp;                                     unit: yuan / ton

Raw materials / by-products and downstream

Unit: yuan / ton, US dollar / ton

Future forecast: plan short-term price zone arrangement. Henan starts to increase short-term price stabilization, with large factories returning to normal production and supply increase, prices may be weak, ddgs demand is limited and parallel product prices are not high, subsidized ethanol production costs are limited, and it is expected that ethanol downside space is limited. The number of shutdown enterprises in East China has increased, and the shipping mentality of small factories is positive, but the price has been much lower than the cost line, and the downward space for enterprises is limited. The northeast still has a small profit in calculating the cost according to the current corn price, but the enterprise buys more high-end corn production loss in the early stage, and there is not much space based on the high cost price. Fuel ethanol shipments of coal-based ethanol are expected to increase next week, the impact of fermented ethanol market is expected to be weak in the short term.

Raw materials: corn ethanol: corn prices rebounded slightly in the region, demand is weak, the market time of new wheat in central China is approaching, prices are weak, substitute prices are weak and bad corn prices. Cassava dry aspect: cassava dried Thai baht value-added, China's ethanol prices are weak, the buying atmosphere is not strong, prices are weak.

Supply: northeast start: Dongning downtime, Baoquanling production, Fuyu Huihai normal, Cofco Zhaodong plant production, Hongzhan normal, Fukang first line shutdown, Tianyu normal, Shuntong downtime, Dongfeng Huafeng downtime, Xintianlong production, Liuniu shutdown, Shenglong downtime. Huadong Huatian production, Guannan shutdown, Jin Changlin downtime, Guohua shutdown, Changxing downtime, Longhe production, sul production, Fulaichun continued downtime, Maibo Huihui shutdown, HIH production. Houyuan shutdown in Mengzhou, Henan Province, other ethanol plants are normal. Yushen can produce products.

Demand: downstream chemical rigid demand procurement. Buy a small amount of liquor.

Logistics: logistics prices are narrowly weak.

Equipment maintenance table of Chinese ethanol enterprises