Methanol: Futures fell below the 2200 mark and market confidence became increasingly lacking

On May 19th, the methanol market price index was 2219.19, down 9.09 from yesterday, down 0.41% from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on May 18:

China's CFR ranges from US $268 to US $272 per ton, down US $5 per ton

European FOB 272-274EUR / ton, flat

Us FOB 85-88 cents per gallon, down 2 cents per gallon

Southeast Asia CFR 335-337 US dollars / ton, down 2 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2200-2230 (0), South: 2060-2080 (0), North: 2080-2120 (0), Lunan: 2280 (0), Henan: 2200-2220 (- 30), Shanxi: 2170-2190 (0), Port: 22602270 (- 60)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 140-210 (10ax 0), South Line-North Shandong 200-260 (10ax 0), Shanxi-North Shandong 100-150 (0ax 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 140-170 (0ax 0)

Spot market: today, the methanol futures market fell synchronously, and the price quoted in the Chinese market fell by 20-60 yuan / ton. Methanol futures closed at 2161, falling below the 2200 mark, with a strong basis, rigid demand procurement within the month, and the overall transaction was OK; the supply side of the Chinese market was still sufficient, the demand side was not obvious for the time being, and the cautious mood of the operators in the market remained, and the trading atmosphere in the market was general. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas is stable. Today, the quotation on the southern route is 2060-2080 yuan per ton, while the quotation on the northern line revolves around it. 2080-2120 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, at present, affected by the volatility of the futures market, the mentality of the market has weakened, mainly buying every bargain, and the operators have a strong wait-and-see mood. In the later stage, they also need to pay attention to the operation of the methanol plant in the field. Guanzhong region market quotation is stable, today's quotation is around 2200-2230 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, the transaction is general. Consumer market prices fell, today Lunan quotation around 2280 yuan / ton, maintained yesterday, Lubei quoted price of 2250 yuan / ton, low-end cut by 30% Yuan / ton, at present, the mood of negotiation in the field is general, and more wait-and-see downstream. Market prices in North China move steadily. Hebei quotation revolves around 2250-2280 yuan / ton, with a low-end increase of 20 yuan / ton. at present, the mentality of manufacturers is strong, and the trading atmosphere is OK; Shanxi quotation revolves around 2170-2190 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday. Southwest market prices remain stable, Yungui quotation around 2250-2320 yuan / ton, Sichuan and Chongqing 2230-2300 yuan / ton, maintain yesterday, the current market operators' cautious mood still exists, the transaction atmosphere is weak.

Port market: methanol futures fluctuated low today. Within the month, rigid demand procurement, the basis is strong; long-term arbitrage shipments, unilateral bargain-seeking positive, the basis is stable and strong. The monthly difference between replacements has widened and the overall transaction is active. Taicang main Port transaction Price: spot transaction: 2260-2270 transaction 5 transaction: 2230-2250, base difference 09: 60, base difference: 2220-2240, basis difference: 09, 60: 65, transaction price: 2205-2225, basis difference: 09: 35, margin: 40, 0625, transaction: 7 : 2205-2225, with a base difference of 0.9-35.

Future forecast: the recent cost support is temporarily stable, but the supply margin is limited. Although some devices are stopped and overhauled and local supply is reduced, the new restart device hedges the positive impact of device parking to a certain extent. Downstream demand changes little, the mindset of market operators is weak, and the trading atmosphere is weak. In the port market, the futures market is weak and volatile, the basis is strong, and the overall transaction is OK. Up to now, the arrival of imported goods continues to increase, while the supply of domestic goods in South China has increased slightly. At present, there is little change in the contradiction between supply and demand in the methanol market, strong pessimism in the market, lack of confidence in the future, and it is expected that the spot price of methanol will fluctuate weakly in the short term, and we need to pay attention to the prices of crude oil and coal and the operation of the plant in the field in the later stage.