Methanol: Poor demand performance, Chinese market trend diverges

On May 17, the methanol market price index was 2229.07, down 1.16 from yesterday, or 0.05% from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on May 16:

China CFR 270,275USD / ton, up US $5.00 / ton

European FOB 273-275EUR / ton, flat

Us FOB 83-86 cents per gallon, down 3 cents per gallon

Southeast Asia CFR 337-339 US dollars / ton, up 2 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2200-2230 (0), South: 2100 (0), North: 2080-2120 (0), Lunan: 2280 (0), Henan: 2225-2240 (- 5), Shanxi: 2140-2180 (- 10), Port: 2325-2350 (10)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 130-210 (- 10 Uniqure 20), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 200-260 (0max 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 100-150 (0mp 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 140-170 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, methanol market prices are mixed, and the price volatility in China is 5-80 billion nbsp; yuan / ton. Methanol futures market volatility is strong, port spot demand negotiations, the basis is weak; trading in some parts of the Chinese market has slightly improved, but the contradiction between supply and demand has not been significantly improved, continue to push slightly weak, market operators gradually wait-and-see mood. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas is stable, with today's quotation of 2100 yuan per ton on the south line and around the price on the north line. 2080-2120 yuan / ton, maintained yesterday, the current local area of the field shipments are good, the transaction atmosphere has slightly improved, the later stage also need to pay attention to the operation of methanol plant in the field. Guanzhong region market quotation is stable, today's quotation around 2200-2230 yuan / ton, maintain yesterday, the market shipment situation is general, the transaction atmosphere is light. The price of the consumer market is stable and small, and today's quotation in Lunan revolves around 2280 yuan / ton, Lubei quoted price of 2280-2310 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday, the current negotiations in the field are general, some operators are still cautious. The market price in North China is narrowly reduced. Hebei quotation revolves around 2230-2280 yuan / ton, and the lower end is reduced by 20 yuan / ton. at present, the downstream demand is mediocre, and it is difficult to sell volume; Shanxi quotation revolves around 2140-2180 yuan / ton, and the low-end price is reduced by 10 yuan / ton. The market price in the southwest region has been partially reduced, and the quotation of Yungui is around 2250-2320 yuan / ton, and the low end is lowered. 50 yuan / ton, Sichuan and Chongqing 2230-2300 yuan / ton, maintain yesterday, the current market operators lack confidence in the future, the market transaction atmosphere is general.

Port market: methanol futures fluctuated higher today. Spot demand is limited. Paper goods rebounded with futures, high shipments increased, futures arbitrage received mainly, the basis remained stable within the month, the long-term slightly weaker. The overall deal is OK. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2335-2350, basis 09-2350-85, & nbsp;:2325-2345, basis-09-70, margin-75, & nbsp;:2295-2330, basis-09-45,-50-6,-nbsp;:2280-2310, basis 09-20,-20,-27, & nbsp;:2265-2305, basis-09-22,-27.

In the future, it is predicted that the local trading atmosphere in China has improved slightly recently, but the macro mood is weak, the cost support is limited, the marginal change between supply and demand is small, and some operators in the lower reaches fill the air and purchase goods, which is still dominated by rigid demand. the rebound and follow-up of the trading atmosphere in the market is still weak. In the port market, the volatility of the futures market is strong, the spot transaction is slightly poor, and the basis stabilizes weakly. up to now, the inventory performance in the port area is different, and the East China region is steadily supported by the consumption of rigid demand downstream, and the market pick-up speed is relatively high. however, the arrival speed of imported goods in South China is relatively concentrated during the week, resulting in a slight increase in the total inventory. At present, the fundamental fluctuation of the methanol market is limited, the supply and demand structure may be maintained in the short term, and the market is cautious. It is expected that the spot price of methanol will remain stable and weak in the short term. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the prices of crude oil, coal and the operation of the plant in the field.