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Gasoline Special issue-20231123 issue
I. International crude oil futures price
|
Date |
WTI |
Brent |
Muerban |
DME Oman |
Shanghai crude oil |
WTI/ Brent spread |
Brent / DME Oman spread |
|
20231115 |
76.66 |
81.18 |
81.89 |
83.27 |
607 |
-4.52 |
-2.09 |
|
20231122 |
77.1 |
81.96 |
83.34 |
84.1 |
589.7 |
-4.86 |
-2.14 |
|
The rate of change compared with last week |
0.57% |
0.96% |
1.77% |
1.00% |
-2.85% |
7.52% |
2.39% |
|
Remarks: 1. Except for Shanghai crude oil, the price units of other oil products in the price list are US dollars per barrel. |
|||||||
II. Summary of gasoline market
Wholesale gasoline prices in China rose and fell this week (20231117-20231123), with gasoline rising by 50-100 yuan per ton in North China, South China, East China and Southwest China. The price of gasoline in Central China, Northwest and Northeast China and Northeast China will be reduced by 50-200 yuan per ton. The ex-factory price of georefinery has mainly increased, of which gasoline prices in Shandong, North China, Central China, East China and Southwest China have increased by 50-140 yuan per ton. Gasoline prices in Northeast and Northwest China are relatively stable. The main factors of the gasoline market this week are as follows: 1. Shock operation and overall upward adjustment after the rise in international crude oil prices. With the OPEC + meeting approaching this week, the market is optimistic about its deepening production cuts. However, with the postponement of the meeting, the growth of US crude oil stocks has put some pressure on the market. 2. The refinery has raised the quotation due to the cost pick-up, but the enthusiasm of receiving goods in the middle and lower reaches is general, and the large order transaction is less than some low-level purchases. 3. During the week, the retail price limit of refined oil was reduced, of which gasoline was reduced by 340 yuan per ton.
III. Gasoline price index
According to Tudor data, as of November 23, China's gasoline price index was 8706.58, down 4.91 from last week, or 0.06%, down 0.06%. The gasoline price index was 9054.11, down 19.21% from last week, or 0.21%. The 9-month and 9-month gasoline indices were both downgraded, and the price difference between the 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index was 347.53.
IV. Spot market for gasoline
1. Price comparison of gasoline Market in China
|
Comparison of main wholesale price of gasoline (yuan / ton) |
|||||
|
Area |
Gasoline model |
Price 11.16 |
Price 11.23 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
North China region |
92# |
8230-9600 |
8300-9600 |
70/0 |
0.85%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8430-9900 |
8500-9900 |
70/0 |
0.83%/0.00% |
|
|
South China |
92# |
8500-9600 |
8580-9680 |
80/80 |
0.94%/0.83% |
|
95# |
8750-9900 |
8830-9980 |
80/80 |
0.91%/0.81% |
|
|
Central China |
92# |
8500-9000 |
8500-8750 |
0/-250 |
0.00%/-2.78% |
|
95# |
8700-9200 |
8700-9050 |
0/-150 |
0.00%/-1.63% |
|
|
East China region |
92# |
8370-9500 |
8400-9500 |
30/0 |
0.36%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8520-9800 |
8570-9800 |
50/0 |
0.59%/0.00% |
|
|
Northwestern region |
92# |
8180-9900 |
8180-9800 |
0/-100 |
0.00%/-1.01% |
|
95# |
8350-10270 |
8350-10100 |
0/-170 |
0.00%/-1.66% |
|
|
Southwest China |
92# |
8400-9000 |
8500-9000 |
100/0 |
1.19%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8700-9330 |
8750-9350 |
50/20 |
0.57%/0.21% |
|
|
Northeast China |
92# |
8320-8900 |
8320-8850 |
0/-50 |
0.00%/-0.56% |
|
95# |
8580-10000 |
8530-9800 |
-50/-200 |
-0.58%/-2.00% |
|
|
Comparison of ex-factory price of gasoline refinery (yuan / ton) |
|||||
|
Area |
Gasoline model |
Price 11.16 |
Price 11.23 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Shandong area |
92# |
8050-8350 |
8080-8390 |
30/40 |
0.37%/0.48% |
|
95# |
8150-8520 |
8260-8500 |
110/-20 |
1.35%/-0.23% |
|
|
North China region |
92# |
8110-8220 |
8180-8220 |
70/0 |
0.86%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8210-8320 |
8230-8320 |
20/0 |
0.24%/0.00% |
|
|
Central China |
92# |
8240-8240 |
8380-8380 |
140/140 |
1.70%/1.70% |
|
95# |
8440-8440 |
8580-8580 |
140/140 |
1.66%/1.66% |
|
|
East China region |
92# |
8130-8280 |
8190-8380 |
60/100 |
0.74%/1.21% |
|
95# |
8250-8450 |
8310-8530 |
60/80 |
0.73%/0.95% |
|
|
Northwestern region |
92# |
7950-8150 |
7950-8150 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8150-8350 |
8150-8350 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Northeast China |
92# |
8300-8300 |
8300-8350 |
0/50 |
0.00%/0.60% |
|
95# |
8500-8500 |
8500-8500 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Southwest China |
92# |
8400-8400 |
8500-8500 |
100/100 |
1.19%/1.19% |
|
95# |
8550-8550 |
8650-8650 |
100/100 |
1.17%/1.17% |
|
2. Gasoline market price comparison in different regions
(1) Northeast China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.16 |
Price 11.23 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Jilin |
92# |
8400-8700 |
8400-8400 |
0/-300 |
0.00%/-3.45% |
|
95# |
9500-10150 |
9500-9800 |
0/-350 |
0.00%/-3.45% |
|
|
Liaoning |
92# |
8350-8900 |
8320-8850 |
-30/-50 |
-0.36%/-0.56% |
|
95# |
8500-9300 |
8500-9300 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Heilongjiang Province |
92# |
8500-8500 |
8475-8475 |
-25/-25 |
-0.29%/-0.29% |
|
95# |
8800-8800 |
8800-8800 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
(2) East China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.16 |
Price 11.23 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Shanghai |
92# |
8350-8500 |
8400-8600 |
50/100 |
0.60%/1.18% |
|
95# |
8550-8700 |
8600-8800 |
50/100 |
0.58%/1.15% |
|
|
Shandong |
92# |
8500-9500 |
8790-9500 |
290/0 |
3.41%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8790-9800 |
8940-9800 |
150/0 |
1.71%/0.00% |
|
|
Jiangsu Province |
92# |
8550-8600 |
8600-8650 |
50/50 |
0.58%/0.58% |
|
95# |
8800-9000 |
8850-9000 |
50/0 |
0.57%/0.00% |
|
|
Zhejiang |
92# |
8650-8850 |
8750-8900 |
100/50 |
1.16%/0.56% |
|
95# |
8850-9050 |
8950-9100 |
100/50 |
1.13%/0.55% |
(3) Central China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.16 |
Price 11.23 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Anhui Province |
92# |
8600-8800 |
8600-8750 |
0/-50 |
0.00%/-0.57% |
|
95# |
8800-9000 |
8800-8900 |
0/-100 |
0.00%/-1.11% |
|
|
Jiangxi Province |
92# |
8700-9000 |
8650-8750 |
-50/-250 |
-0.57%/-2.78% |
|
95# |
9100-9200 |
8950-9050 |
-150/-150 |
-1.65%/-1.63% |
|
|
Hubei province |
92# |
8500-8600 |
8500-8650 |
0/50 |
0.00%/0.58% |
|
95# |
8700-8900 |
8700-8950 |
0/50 |
0.00%/0.56% |
|
|
Hunan |
92# |
8550-8600 |
8550-8650 |
0/50 |
0.00%/0.58% |
|
95# |
8720-8850 |
8750-8900 |
30/50 |
0.34%/0.56% |
(4) North China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.16 |
Price 11.23 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Inner Mongolia Autonomous region |
92# |
8350-8350 |
8300-8300 |
-50/-50 |
-0.60%/-0.60% |
|
95# |
8550-8550 |
8500-8500 |
-50/-50 |
-0.58%/-0.58% |
|
|
Beijing |
92# |
8700-8700 |
8750-8750 |
50/50 |
0.57%/0.57% |
|
95# |
8900-9000 |
8950-8950 |
50/-50 |
0.56%/-0.56% |
|
|
Tianjin |
92# |
8230-8330 |
8270-8330 |
40/0 |
0.49%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8430-8600 |
8470-8650 |
40/50 |
0.47%/0.58% |
|
|
Shanxi Province |
92# |
8500-9600 |
8530-9600 |
30/0 |
0.35%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8750-9900 |
8850-9900 |
100/0 |
1.14%/0.00% |
|
|
Hebei |
92# |
8400-8630 |
8490-8730 |
90/100 |
1.07%/1.16% |
|
95# |
8700-8830 |
8690-8930 |
-10/100 |
-0.11%/1.13% |
|
|
Henan |
92# |
8420-9050 |
8550-9100 |
130/50 |
1.54%/0.55% |
|
95# |
8700-9420 |
8830-9470 |
130/50 |
1.49%/0.53% |
(5) South China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.16 |
Price 11.23 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Guangdong |
92# |
8500-9650 |
8580-9730 |
80/80 |
0.94%/0.83% |
|
95# |
8920-9900 |
8950-9980 |
30/80 |
0.34%/0.81% |
|
|
Hainan |
92# |
8900-9000 |
8800-9000 |
-100/0 |
-1.12%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9100-9200 |
9000-9200 |
-100/0 |
-1.10%/0.00% |
|
|
Fujian |
92# |
8600-8850 |
8700-8900 |
100/50 |
1.16%/0.56% |
|
95# |
8850-9100 |
8900-9100 |
50/0 |
0.56%/0.00% |
(6) Northwest China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.16 |
Price 11.23 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region |
92# |
8450-9900 |
8250-9614 |
-200/-286 |
-2.37%/-2.89% |
|
95# |
8650-10270 |
8450-9977 |
-200/-293 |
-2.31%/-2.85% |
|
|
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region |
92# |
10179-10179 |
9719-9819 |
-460/-360 |
-4.52%/-3.54% |
|
95# |
10555-10758 |
10277-10377 |
-278/-381 |
-2.63%/-3.54% |
|
|
Gansu |
92# |
8350-10460 |
8350-10100 |
0/-360 |
0.00%/-3.44% |
|
95# |
9300-11074 |
8760-10693 |
-540/-381 |
-5.81%/-3.44% |
|
|
Xizang Autonomous region |
92# |
9620-9620 |
9520-9520 |
-100/-100 |
-1.04%/-1.04% |
|
95# |
10020-10020 |
9970-9970 |
-50/-50 |
-0.50%/-0.50% |
|
|
Shaanxi |
92# |
8150-9816 |
8180-9730 |
30/-86 |
0.37%/-0.88% |
|
95# |
8250-10186 |
8250-10100 |
0/-86 |
0.00%/-0.84% |
|
|
Qinghai |
92# |
9200-9200 |
9050-9050 |
-150/-150 |
-1.63%/-1.63% |
|
95# |
9650-9650 |
9500-9500 |
-150/-150 |
-1.55%/-1.55% |
(7) Southwest China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.16 |
Price 11.23 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Yunnan |
92# |
8730-8880 |
8700-8900 |
-30/20 |
-0.34%/0.23% |
|
95# |
9180-9330 |
9150-9350 |
-30/20 |
-0.33%/0.21% |
|
|
Sichuan |
92# |
8550-8800 |
8550-8700 |
0/-100 |
0.00%/-1.14% |
|
95# |
8800-9100 |
8950-9050 |
150/-50 |
1.70%/-0.55% |
|
|
Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region |
92# |
8400-10630 |
8500-10270 |
100/-360 |
1.19%/-3.39% |
|
95# |
8850-11253 |
8850-10870 |
0/-383 |
0.00%/-3.40% |
|
|
Guizhou |
92# |
8800-9000 |
8700-9000 |
-100/0 |
-1.14%/0.00% |
|
95# |
9100-9300 |
8920-9300 |
-180/0 |
-1.98%/0.00% |
|
|
Chongqing |
92# |
8480-9400 |
8500-9100 |
20/-300 |
0.24%/-3.19% |
|
95# |
8750-9750 |
8750-9450 |
0/-300 |
0.00%/-3.08% |
(8) Northeast geochemistry
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.16 |
Price 11.23 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Jilin |
92# |
8300-8300 |
8300-8350 |
0/50 |
0.00%/0.60% |
|
95# |
8500-8500 |
8500-8500 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Liaoning |
92# |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
95# |
- |
- |
- |
- |
(9) East China geochemistry
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.16 |
Price 11.23 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Jiangsu Province |
92# |
8130-8280 |
8190-8380 |
60/100 |
0.74%/1.21% |
|
95# |
8250-8450 |
8310-8530 |
60/80 |
0.73%/0.95% |
(10) Central China Refinery
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.16 |
Price 11.23 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Hubei province |
92# |
8240-8240 |
8380-8380 |
140/140 |
1.70%/1.70% |
|
95# |
8440-8440 |
8580-8580 |
140/140 |
1.66%/1.66% |
(11) geochemistry in North China
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.16 |
Price 11.23 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Henan |
92# |
8110-8220 |
8180-8220 |
70/0 |
0.86%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8210-8320 |
8230-8320 |
20/0 |
0.24%/0.00% |
(12) Shandong Geolian
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.16 |
Price 11.23 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Shandong |
92# |
8050-8350 |
8080-8390 |
30/40 |
0.37%/0.48% |
|
95# |
8150-8520 |
8260-8500 |
110/-20 |
1.35%/-0.23% |
(13) Northwest Refinery
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.16 |
Price 11.23 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region |
92# |
8000-8100 |
8100-8150 |
100/50 |
1.25%/0.62% |
|
95# |
8150-8150 |
8250-8300 |
100/150 |
1.23%/1.84% |
|
|
Shaanxi |
92# |
8150-8150 |
8150-8150 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
95# |
8350-8350 |
8350-8350 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
|
|
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region |
92# |
8550-8550 |
8550-8550 |
0/0 |
0.00%/0.00% |
(14) Southwest Refinery
|
Province / city |
Model |
Price 11.16 |
Price 11.23 |
Rise and fall |
Amplitude |
|
Sichuan Province |
92# |
8400-8400 |
8500-8500 |
100/100 |
1.19%/1.19% |
|
95# |
8550-8550 |
8650-8650 |
100/100 |
1.17%/1.17% |
V. Future forecast
From the perspective of international crude oil, the market still pays more attention to the upcoming meeting of OPEC+. At present, the OPEC+ meeting has been postponed to November 30, and the market believes that the main reason is that it has not reached an internal agreement, but the position of major exporters such as Saudi Arabia in reducing production is still relatively firm. If we further push forward the production reduction measures, it will bring new impetus to the oil price, which needs to be followed up, and other potential risks should not be underestimated. In terms of demand, gasoline consumption has been relatively stable recently, the weather has turned cooler, the frequency of use of private cars has increased, and traders have made rigid purchases. Near the end of the month, the performance of the main unit is different, and the quotations in different regions may be differentiated. From a comprehensive point of view, it is expected that the price of China's gasoline market will be stable and fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term.
VI. Operating rate
This week (20231117-20231123), the capacity utilization rate of the main unit was 77.89%, up 1.05%; the operating rate of independent refineries was 64.57%, up 1.6%.
Supply and demand & profit
Supply and demand: this week, China's oil product output is 3.0538 million tons, China's main output is 2.1884 million tons, China's independent refineries output 865400 tons, China's independent refinery gasoline sales of 881200 tons, China's commercial inventory of 13.3606 million tons.
Profit: main comprehensive oil refining weekly production gross profit-94.94 yuan / ton, georefining comprehensive oil refining weekly production gross profit 468.71 yuan / ton, atmospheric and vacuum weekly production gross profit 362 yuan / ton, FCC weekly production gross profit-349 yuan / ton, delayed coking weekly production gross profit 544 yuan / ton.
VIII. Plant maintenance schedule
|
Maintenance schedule of main refineries in China |
||||
|
Refinery |
Inspection and repair device |
Maintenance capacity (10,000 tons) |
Start time |
End time |
|
Beihai Refining and Chemical Industry |
Catalytic cracking |
210 |
March 1, 2023 |
March 31, 2023 |
|
Daqing Refining and Chemical Industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
550 |
August 3, 2023 |
September 23, 2023 |
|
Daqing Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
1000 |
June 15, 2023 |
July 24, 2023 |
|
Guangzhou Petrochemical Corporation |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
500 |
October 15, 2023 |
December 5, 2023 |
|
Harbin Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
435 |
May 5, 2023 |
June 23, 2023 |
|
Huizhou Refining and Chemical Industry |
The first phase of the whole plant |
1200 |
March 15, 2023 |
Mid-May 2023 |
|
Jinling Petrochemical |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
600 |
April 10, 2023 |
May 26, 2023 |
|
Lanzhou Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
1050 |
June 11, 2023 |
August 9, 2023 |
|
Liaoyang Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
900 |
April 10, 2023 |
May 24, 2023 |
|
Luoyang Refining and Chemical Industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
1000 |
May 15, 2023 |
July 14, 2023 |
|
Qingdao Refining and Chemical Industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
1200 |
May 16, 2023 |
July 6, 2023 |
|
Sichuan Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
1000 |
September 15, 2023 |
November 15, 2023 |
|
Tahe petrochemical |
Diesel oil hydrogenation |
/ |
March 19, 2023 |
March 31, 2023 |
|
Urumqi petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
850 |
April 15, 2023 |
June 18, 2023 |
|
Dongxing in Zhanjiang |
Whole plant overhaul |
500 |
October 5, 2023 |
December 5, 2023 |
|
Changqing Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
500 |
April 1, 2023 |
May 25, 2023 |
|
Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Industry |
Atmospheric and vacuum decompression |
1000 |
March 10, 2023 |
May 5, 2023 |
|
China National Oil and Gas Taizhou |
Whole plant overhaul |
600 |
May 12, 2023 |
End of June 2023 |
|
Qingdao Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
500 |
October 7, 2023 |
November 26, 2023 |
|
Maintenance schedule of local refinery plant |
||||
|
Refinery |
Inspection and repair device |
Maintenance capacity (10,000 tons) |
Start time |
End time |
|
Dalian Hengli |
Hydrogenation of wax oil and residue |
/ |
May 20, 2023 |
Early July 2023 |
|
Dalian Jinyuan |
Whole plant overhaul |
220 |
July 10, 2023 |
August 9, 2023 |
|
Dongying Petrochemical Company |
Whole plant overhaul |
350 |
March 12, 2023 |
May 10, 2023 |
|
Fengli petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
260 |
July 20, 2023 |
August 20, 2023 |
|
Fu Haichuang |
Whole plant overhaul |
700 |
June 16, 2023 |
September 15, 2023 |
|
Kenli Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
300 |
May 20, 2023 |
June 15, 2023 |
|
Lanqiao Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
350 |
June 15, 2023 |
August 2, 2023 |
|
Lijin refining and chemical industry |
Whole plant overhaul |
350 |
August 19, 2023 |
September 18, 2023 |
|
United petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
420 |
April 9, 2023 |
May 19, 2023 |
|
Liaoning Baolai |
Catalysis, hydrogenation, etc. |
/ |
January 30, 2023 |
February 23, 2023 |
|
Whole plant overhaul |
2400 |
August 31, 2023 |
September 15, 2023 |
|
|
Liaoning Huajin |
Diesel oil hydrogenation |
/ |
March 8, 2023 |
March 15, 2023 |
|
Ninglu Petrochemical |
Rotation inspection of the whole plant |
120 |
June 15, 2023 |
July 5, 2023 |
|
Panjin Haoye |
Fault shutdown |
650 |
January 15, 2023 |
July 6, 2023 |
|
Qicheng petrochemical |
Rotation inspection |
350 |
August 5, 2023 |
Mid-September 2023 |
|
Shenchi chemical industry |
Catalytic cracking |
120 |
January 22, 2023 |
February 20, 2023 |
|
Wantong Petrochemical |
Whole plant overhaul |
650 |
July 13, 2023 |
August 30, 2023 |
|
Wudi Xinyue |
Whole plant overhaul |
240 |
June 26, 2023 |
Early September 2023 |
|
Xinhai Sinopec |
Whole plant overhaul |
600 |
April 26, 2023 |
August 10, 2023 |
|
Xintai Petrochemical |
Rotation inspection |
220 |
End of February 2023 |
July 22, 2023 |
|
Yatong Petrochemical |
Hydrocracking |
200 |
May 27, 2023 |
July 6, 2023 |
|
Yan'an Refinery |
Whole plant overhaul |
560 |
May 20, 2023 |
June 26, 2023 |
|
Zhonghe petrochemical |
Catalysis |
/ |
November 8, 2023 |
To be determined |
|
China and overseas |
Whole plant overhaul |
300 |
February 28, 2023 |
April 20, 2023 |
|
Yongping Refinery |
Whole plant overhaul |
460 |
September 4, 2023 |
September 20, 2023 |
|
Huaxing petrochemical |
Catalysis, coking |
/ |
October 16, 2023 |
November 2023 |
