More than 20 pending projects of photovoltaic glass have been terminated or postponed this year. Experts predict that prices will increase after the Spring Festival next year

After three months of continuous decline, on the evening of September 10th, the Silicon Industry Branch released the latest data on the price of photovoltaic glass. The data show that the average price of 2.0mm photovoltaic glass is 13 yuan / square meter; the average price of 3.2mm photovoltaic glass is 22.25 yuan / square meter, which is the same as last week and remains stable.

Zheng Tianhong, an SMM photovoltaic industry analyst, told the Huaxia Times that in the near future, about a week or two, the price of photovoltaic glass tends to stabilize. At present, although there is a relatively large reduction in production on the supply side, there is still a slight oversupply in terms of the balance between supply and demand in September. Under the influence of high inventory, the price of photovoltaic glass should fall slightly in mid-late September, but the decline will not be great.

Photovoltaic glass refers to the glass used in solar photovoltaic modules, which can protect the battery and transmit light. It is not only an important part of the photovoltaic industry chain, but also an indispensable material for photovoltaic modules.

In the past few years, with the rapid growth of photovoltaic equipment demand and the rapid development of photovoltaic calendered glass industry, China has become the world's largest producer and consumer of photovoltaic glass. According to relevant statistics, the production expansion power of photovoltaic glass enterprises reached its peak in 2022, and the major projects were ignited and landed in 2022, and the overall growth rate has slowed down since 2023.

However, in the first half of this year, production capacity continued to increase, with the daily melting capacity of new kilns exceeding 17000 tons, and the daily melting volume in production increased significantly, from 56500 tons in 2022 to 111900 tons, double that of two years ago, and the industry operating rate and capacity utilization rate remained at a high level.

On the demand side, however, it is reported that in the first half of this year, the price of Chinese photovoltaic products began to fall below the cost line, losses occurred in many links of the industrial chain, the pressure of production and operation of enterprises was greater, and the growth rate of production capacity slowed down. According to relevant statistics, the number of projects put into production, construction and planning fell by more than 75% in the first half of the year compared with the same period last year, and more than 20 projects to be built were announced to be terminated or postponed.

At the same time, the operating rate of enterprises is low, the operating rate of main materials enterprises is generally less than 60%, and a number of Chinese factories have stopped production. Affected by the reduction of the output of end products, the demand for photovoltaic glass is weak and the inventory is high. According to Zhuochuang data, photovoltaic glass inventory has exceeded 35 days, the highest level since July 2021.

Under this background, various manufacturers have to open the price volume in order to seize the order, resulting in the low price of glass. At the beginning of January this year, the price of coated photovoltaic panel glass for 2mm and 3.2mm was 17 yuan and 26 yuan respectively. After a slight rebound in April and May, photovoltaic glass plummeted. Since late May, the price of photovoltaic glass has fallen sharply and hit a five-year low.

"there is only a month between the lowest point and the highest point of the price." Longzhong Information Photovoltaic analyst Fang Wenzheng told the Huaxia Times. He pointed out that the price fluctuation of photovoltaic glass in China in 2024 was mainly affected by changes in demand, and there were significant fluctuations in the scheduling of components in the first and second quarters, which led to the fluctuation of glass prices. as a whole, it shows a "three-step" trend of falling first, then rising and then falling.

Due to the irrational decline in product prices, although some photovoltaic glass enterprises remain profitable, there is a significant decline in revenue growth compared with last year.

Take the first-line photovoltaic glass manufacturers in China as an example. For the whole of last year, Follett's operating income grew by 39.21%, and its parent profit grew by 30%. In the first half of this year, the company realized revenue of 10.696 billion yuan, an increase of 10.51% over the same period last year; and its net profit was 1.499 billion yuan, an increase of 38.14% over the same period last year. Qibin Group's revenue grew by 17.8% last year, and its return profit grew by 32.98%. But in the first half of 2024, the company's revenue was 7.912 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 14.92%, and its net profit was 811 million yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 25.35%.

In addition, the growth rate of revenue and net profit of Nanbo An and Jinjing Technology also declined, with Kaisheng Xinneng and Hainan Development losing 55 million yuan and 43 million yuan respectively in the first half of the year.

As the glass industry continues to approach the industry-wide loss cash cost line, some glass manufacturers carry out cold repair of glass furnaces in advance to cope with the impact of the market, especially the production capacity with small scale and long service life is accelerating cold repair. On the news side, there are media reports that the top ten photovoltaic glass manufacturers recently held an emergency meeting and reached an agreement to implement the furnace closure plan to reduce production by as much as 30%.

The reporter learned that Xinyi Optical Energy also has a capacity of 2000 tons per day to carry out cold repairs. A staff member of the Flyte Board Office told the Huaxia Times that at present, the company also has some cold repairs one after another, almost 2600 tons per day. According to industry statistics, the industry has a cold repair capacity of more than 10,000 tons. At the same time, considering the profitability, approval policies and financing costs, many new investment projects have been terminated or postponed.

"basically, in China this year, there has been a production reduction on the supply side since mid-late August, and the specific scale of the production reduction will not be fully reflected on the supply side until September or after September. In mid-to-late September, the center of gravity of photovoltaic glass prices is likely to fall slightly, mainly due to the impact of current high inventories, although demand has increased slightly, but the increase is relatively slow, relative to the deceleration of China's supply side is still not matched. " Zheng Tianhong said.

Regarding the future price trend of photovoltaic glass, Fang Wenzheng told the China Times reporter that China's photovoltaic glass prices are expected to show a flat "M"-shaped trend in 2024, and the high price during the year will be affected by the demand for component assembly. Appears at the end of the second quarter and the end of the fourth quarter, the supply and demand relationship of prices will play a decisive role.

Zheng Tianhong believes that "the reduction in production and the increase in demand from China's traditional photovoltaic rush season may be slightly tense or balanced between supply and demand in the next few months. Considering the cost support of glass companies, subsequent prices will tend to stabilize. This year, the main impact on demand is relatively large. Next year is the last year of the five-year plan. The installed demand and targets of photovoltaic power plants need to be supplemented in a centralized manner. The overall demand next year should have a significant increase compared with the same period this year."

Zheng Tianhong further analyzed that due to the recent supply-side reduction, glass production reduction and cold repair will basically take about four to five months from shutdown to start-up. After the Spring Festival next year, China's supply and demand pattern may undergo certain changes and reappear. For example, at the end of last year, supply shortages will occur. At this stage, the overall inventory of the glass industry will decline at a relatively high rate, the supply side will also be relatively short, and prices will also be raised.