Key Economic Updates and Breakthroughs on August 1st, 2024
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International Crude Price Trend and Exchange Rate of RMB to USD Trend
Domestic News
1. The five-year action plan for the new urbanization strategy issued by the State Council clearly states that after five years of efforts, the channels for the rural migrants to settle in cities have been further facilitated, the system of providing basic public services in permanent residence has been further improved, and the coordinated promotion of new industrialization and urbanization in potential areas has been significantly accelerated
2. In the first half of this year, the investment in key energy projects in the country exceeded 1.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.7%.
3. The Ministry of Transport held a semi-annual work meeting in 2024
4. The Cyberspace Administration of China launched a special action to "rectify false, vulgar and chaotic phenomena in the field of clean · online live broadcasting".
5. Chinese scientists have made new breakthroughs in the research of all-solid-state lithium batteries
International News
1. Investors have increased bets on the United Kingdom's central bank to cut interest rates this week
2. The United States and Europe urgently mediate to prevent the outbreak of all-out war in the Middle East
3. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is 100%
4. The Prime Minister of Qatar held talks with the Foreign Minister of Egypt to focus on the regional situation
5. Improving supply and easing interest rates drove up the United States housing contract sales index
Domestic News
1. The five-year action plan for the new urbanization strategy issued by the State Council clearly states that after five years of efforts, the channels for the rural migrants to settle in cities have been further facilitated, the system of providing basic public services in permanent residence has been further improved, and the coordinated promotion of new industrialization and urbanization in potential areas has been significantly accelerated
We have cultivated and formed a number of modern metropolitan areas with strong radiation driving force, effectively made up for the shortcomings of urban safety and resilience, and increased the urbanization rate of permanent residents to nearly 70%, so as to better support high-quality economic and social development. The action plan proposes to implement 4 major actions (the implementation of a new round of urbanization of agricultural population, improvement of the level of urbanization in potential areas, cultivation of modern metropolitan areas, improvement of urban renewal and safety resilience, 19 key tasks and relevant policy measures.
2. In the first half of this year, the investment in key energy projects in the country exceeded 1.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.7%.
According to the National Energy Administration, in the first half of this year, the investment in key energy projects across the country exceeded 1.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.7%. The new installed capacity of renewable energy power generation was 134 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 24%, accounting for 88% of the country's new installed power capacity. The installed capacity of new energy storage has reached 44.44 million kilowatts, an increase of more than 40% from the end of 2023.
3. The Ministry of Transport held a semi-annual work meeting in 2024
On July 31, the Ministry of Transport held the 2024 semi-annual work meeting to thoroughly study and implement the spirit of the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, conscientiously implement the decisions and arrangements of the Party Central Committee on economic work, summarize the work in the first half of the year, and deploy key tasks in the second half of the year. Li Xiaopeng, Secretary of the Party Leadership Group and Minister of the Ministry of Transport, demanded that the key work of transportation in the second half of the year should be done in a solid manner. First, it is necessary to do a good job in flood prevention, flood relief, safe production, and emergency management. The second is to further deepen the reform of transportation in an all-round way. The third is to promote transportation and logistics to reduce costs and improve quality and efficiency. Fourth, promote large-scale equipment renewal in transportation. Fifth, speed up the study and preparation of the 15th Five-Year Plan. Sixth, stabilize the scale of investment in fixed assets in transportation. Seventh, it serves the coordinated development of regions and the integrated development of urban and rural areas. Eighth, do a good job in accelerating the specific work of building a strong transportation country. Nine is to promote the innovative development of transportation. Tenth, deepen international cooperation in transportation. Eleventh is to strengthen the party's overall leadership and party building.
4. The Cyberspace Administration of China launched a special action to "rectify false, vulgar and chaotic phenomena in the field of clean· online live broadcasting".
In order to urge online livestreaming platforms to implement entity responsibility, strengthen the management of online anchor' conduct, and promote the healthy and orderly development of the online livestreaming industry. Recently, the Cyberspace Administration of China issued a special notice to deploy a one-month nationwide special action to "clean·rectify false and vulgar chaos in the field of online live broadcasting".
5. Chinese scientists have made new breakthroughs in the research of all-solid-state lithium batteries
The scientific research team of the Qingdao Institute of Bioenergy and Bioprocess Technology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences has recently made a new breakthrough in the field of all-solid-state lithium batteries, which is expected to make the dream of miniaturization and long battery life of electronic devices come true. The results were published in the international academic journal Nature Energy on July 31. The research team has developed a new material, a homogenized cathode material (lithium, titanium, germanium, phosphorus, sulfur and selenium), which has the advantages of high conductivity, high energy density and long service life compared with traditional materials. This research provides technical support for the development of energy storage equipment with high energy density and long service life, and provides technical support for the safe and durable power source of new energy vehicles, energy storage power grids, and deep-sea and deep space equipment, and is of great significance for the development of new energy storage systems.
International News
1. Investors have increased bets on the United Kingdom's central bank to cut interest rates this week
There are signs that global inflationary pressures are receding and investors are gradually accepting the view that the United Kingdom Bank may cut interest rates this week. Traders in the swaps markets are pricing in a roughly 65% chance that the central United Kingdom bank will cut rates from a 16-year high of 5.25% on Thursday and a 40% chance of a rate cut after United Kingdom release of the latest inflation data earlier this month. Investors said the moves come as the United Kingdom's central bank is likely to focus on the long-term outlook for inflation and economic growth as unemployment rises and commodity prices ease, although services inflation remains uncomfortably high. "Market expectations for rate cuts have been rising, and I think it's a disinflationary narrative...... The data in Europe was less than satisfactory, which tilted the scales in favor of the United Kingdom Bank to cut interest rates this week," said Ranjiv Mann, portfolio manager at Allianz Global Investments. He expects the United Kingdom central bank to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday.
2. The United States and Europe urgently mediate to prevent the outbreak of all-out war in the Middle East
Fears of a broader regional conflict soared after Israel's attacks on Allah and Hamas leaders in Lebanon's capital Beirut and Iran's capital, Iran and Allah vowed to retaliate for the attacks, according to the United Kingdom Financial Times. United States and European Union diplomats are engaged in urgent discussions around the Middle East in an attempt to prevent the threat of full-blown regional war. Mora, one of the EU's highest-ranking diplomats, held important talks with Iran officials. Meanwhile, United States National Security Council Coordinator for Middle East and North Africa Affairs Brett · McGurk is holding talks in Saudi Arabia. Officials said the talks focused on convincing Iran to either not respond or take symbolic action. The White House has tried to downplay the possibility of a full-scale war, although officials privately admit that it is one of the most sensitive moments since Oct. 7 last year.
3. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is 100%
According to CME's "Fed Watch": the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September is 90.5%, and the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 9.5%. The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points by November is 21.7%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 71.1%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points is 7.2%.
4. The Prime Minister of Qatar held talks with the Foreign Minister of Egypt to focus on the regional situation
On July 31, local time, Qatar Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammed held talks with visiting Egypt Foreign Minister Badr · Abdulaati in the capital Doha, focusing on the situation in the Palestinian Gaza Strip, guaranteeing the entry of humanitarian aid in the Gaza Strip, and the latest progress in the mediation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict between Qatar and Egypt. The two sides also held consultations on the impact of the attack on the situation in Iran of the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) Politburo leader Haniyeh.
5. Improving supply and easing interest rates drove up the United States housing contract sales index
United States' existing home sales index rose 4.8% from the previous month to 74.3 in June, as supply improved and mortgage rates eased. Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the United States Association of Realtors, said the increase in housing inventory is starting to lead to more contracts. Mortgage rates have retreated after a spring surge, and home price growth is slowing. But a big rebound in home sales is unlikely. The percentage of consumers who plan to buy a home in the next six months fell to its lowest level since February 2013 in July, according to a survey released Tuesday by the Conference Board.
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