June 25th Macroeconomic Index: China-EU Railway Traffic Surges, Manufacturing Foreign Investment Restrictions Lifted

Domestic News

1. Xi Jinping held talks with Poland’s President Andrzej Duda

2. Vice Foreign Minister Chen Xiaodong attended the Senior Officials' Meeting of the Second Horn of Africa Peace Conference

3. Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: Promote the implementation of the comprehensive abolition of restrictions on foreign investment in the manufacturing industry

4. Ministry of Commerce: Further relax the access of foreign investment and expand the space for foreign investment

5. Hubei Yihua: It is planned to publicly list and transfer 100% of the equity of the degradable new materials company

International News

1. After the unilateral visa-free policy, the search popularity of Polish users to China on the international version Ctrip has increased

2. The geopolitical conflict has escalated again, is the upward trend of crude oil the general trend

3. The Red Sea crisis has not been solved, but European ports have fallen into a wave of strikes! How long will the European container shipping line be strong

4. The decline in orders of British factories has eased, but export demand is weak

5. The traffic volume of Manzhouli Port of the "East Channel" of China-Europe Railway Express exceeded 25,000 trains

Domestic News

1. Xi Jinping held talks with Poland’s President Andrzej Duda

President Xi Jinping held talks with Poland’s President Andrzej Duda, who is on a state visit to China, at the National Great Hall in Beijing, and stressed that China has decided to implement a unilateral visa-free policy for Polish citizens for 15 days. China welcomes more high-quality Polish agricultural and food products to enter the Chinese market, supports the expansion of two-way investment, and hopes that Poland will provide a fair, just and non-discriminatory business environment for Chinese enterprises. China is ready to work with Poland and other countries to promote the sustainable development of the China-CEEC cooperation mechanism and promote the sound and steady development of China-EU relations. (CCTV News)

2. Vice Foreign Minister Chen Xiaodong attended the Senior Officials' Meeting of the Second Horn of Africa Peace Conference

Vice Foreign Minister Chen Xiaodong attended the Senior Officials' Meeting of the Second Horn of Africa Peace Conference and delivered an opening speech. Chen Xiaodong said that since the "Horn of Africa Concept for Peace and Development" was put forward more than two years ago, China has worked hand in hand with the Horn of Africa countries, focusing on the three goals of "security, development and governance", and taking concrete actions to promote regional peace and development. China is ready to continue to be partners with the Horn of Africa countries on the road to peace, guided by the Global Security Initiative, building a pattern of "great security" based on the concept of greater peace, and striving to be a pioneer in jointly safeguarding peace. We will continue to be a partner on the road of development, take the implementation of the Global Development Initiative as the guide, work together to build a high-quality Belt and Road Initiative, and strive to be a pioneer in common development. We will continue to be partners on the road to justice, actively participate in the reform and construction of the global governance system, safeguard international fairness and justice and the common interests of developing countries, and strive to be a pioneer in upholding justice. China is ready to work with other countries in the Horn of Africa to build the Horn of Africa into a corner of peace, development and prosperity, and jointly build a high-level China-Africa community with a shared future. (Ministry of Foreign Affairs)

3. Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: Promote the implementation of the comprehensive abolition of restrictions on foreign investment in the manufacturing industry

Yesterday, the "Investing in China, CCTV Finance and CBD Multinational Corporations Dialogue" was launched in Beijing. Xin Guobin, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has fully implemented the high-level opening-up policy and vigorously supported the development of multinational companies in China. In the future, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will continue to optimize the business environment, fully implement the national treatment of foreign-funded enterprises, support multinational companies to participate in standard formulation and key R&D projects on an equal footing, and equally enjoy the dividends brought by industrial development.

4. Ministry of Commerce: Further relax the access of foreign investment and expand the space for foreign investment

Ling Ji, Vice Minister of Commerce and Deputy Representative of International Trade Negotiations, said that the Ministry of Commerce will work with various departments and localities to continue to build the "Invest in China" brand, increase efforts to attract and utilize foreign investment, further relax foreign investment access, reasonably reduce the negative list of foreign investment access, fully cancel the restrictions on foreign investment access in the manufacturing sector, relax foreign investment access in the fields of medical care and telecommunications, increase the catalogue of encouraged foreign investment industries, revise and issue the "Administrative Measures for Strategic Investment by Foreign Investors in Listed Companies", and further expand the space for foreign investment. It will also further build an open platform, implement the pilot measures for the free trade zone port to connect with international high-standard economic and trade rules, launch a new round of comprehensive pilot measures to expand the opening up of the service industry, promote the high-quality development of the national economic development zone, and better play the role of a platform for attracting investment. (CCTV Finance)

5. Hubei Yihua: It is planned to publicly list and transfer 100% of the equity of the degradable new materials company

Hubei Yihua announced in the evening that the company intends to transfer 100% of the equity of its wholly-owned subsidiary, Hubei Yihua Degradable New Materials Co., Ltd., through public listing, and the floor price of the transfer is not less than the appraised value of 151 million yuan for the record, and the company's controlling shareholder Yihua Group intends to participate in the auction. In the context of the low market prosperity of PBAT, the core product of degradable new materials, and the continuous loss of degradable new materials, if the company successfully transfers 100% of the equity of degradable new materials, it will be conducive to optimizing resource allocation and improving the company's profitability. The proceeds are used for the company's daily production and operation.

International News

1. After the unilateral visa-free policy, the search popularity of Polish users to China on the international version Ctrip has increased

China has decided to implement a 15-day unilateral visa-free policy for Polish citizens. Half an hour after the news was announced, on the Trip.com of Ctrip's international version, Polish users' search popularity for China-related keywords increased by 40% compared with the previous day. Chinese tourist cities that Polish tourists are keen on include Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu and Guangzhou. According to Ctrip data, as of June 23, Poland ranked among the top 30 source countries for inbound Chinese tourism this year. In the following summer, the number of Polish tourists entering China increased by 8% year-on-year. At present, the recovery rate of flights from Poland to China has reached about 7%. It is expected that after the unilateral visa exemption policy is announced, the number of Polish tourists visiting China in the summer will further increase.

2. The geopolitical conflict has escalated again, is the upward trend of crude oil the general trend

As of the week of June 21, the crude oil market was driven by multiple positive factors, and the overall trend was volatile and upward. The arrival of the summer travel season has made investors and market institutions remain optimistic about the outlook for energy demand, and the market is very bullish. Although the IEA lowered its oil demand growth forecast for 2024 and expects demand to peak in 2029, comments from the OPEC Secretary General eased market fears of peak demand. This week, international oil prices are expected to remain volatile and rise. WTI is expected to operate in a mainstream range of $79-84/barrel and Brent in the mainstream range of $83-88/barrel. While the escalation of geopolitical conflicts and OPEC+'s production cuts have provided support on the supply side, weaker global consumption and the Fed's hawkish stance on rate cuts could limit oil price gains. As a result, crude oil prices are expected to remain range-bound.

3. The Red Sea crisis has not been solved, but European ports have fallen into a wave of strikes! How long will the European container shipping line be strong

Supported by the strong demand for transportation, the congestion of the transshipment center has intensified, and the supply of capacity is tight, the bullish atmosphere in the container shipping market is strong, and the European line of container transportation continues to rise strongly today, and the main EC2408 contract has hit a new high since its listing. The short-term shipping market in the tight capacity and the fundamental influence of cargo volume support, there is a certain support for freight rates, with the continuous rise in freight rates to promote the underlying index operation center to move up, strategically maintain more ideas. It is understood that at present, the shipowners have performed well for the long-term customers, and there has been no high-price sale of long-term space, which shows that the shipowners' confidence in the continuous price increase in the future market is not firm. Taking into account the impact of bypass factors, this year's shipping season may be postponed by about 1 month, and it is expected that the inflection point of freight rates may appear in October, and appropriate attention can be paid to the 10-12 contract anti-hedging opportunities. In the later stage, it is necessary to pay close attention to the spot variables caused by the Sino-EU trade dispute and the delivery of new ships.

4. The decline in orders of British factories has eased, but export demand is weak

A survey by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) showed that the pace of contraction in UK manufacturing orders slowed in June from the previous month, despite a sharp drop in export orders. The CBI industrial orders differential rose to a three-month high of -18 in June from -33 in May, while the output expectations differential rose to its highest level since October last year. However, the CBI's export orders indicator fell to its lowest level since February 2021. "It's encouraging to see that manufacturers remain confident that the economy is heading in the right direction, with our June survey showing that the recovery will expand further over the summer," said Ben Jones, chief economist at CBI. And if you need to be careful, orders are still weak. The sharp deterioration in export orders is particularly striking and will need to be closely watched in the coming months. ”

5. The traffic volume of Manzhouli Port of the "East Channel" of China-Europe Railway Express exceeded 25,000 trains

It was learned from China Railway Harbin Bureau Group Co., Ltd. that as of June 24, a total of 25,936 China-Europe railways had passed through the Manzhouli Railway Port, and 2.51 million TEUs of goods had been sent, making positive contributions to ensuring the stability and smoothness of the international industrial chain and supply chain. The "East Corridor" of China-Europe Railway Express is the railway port cluster with the largest transportation volume of China-Europe Railway Express in China. According to the data, since 2013, when the China-Europe train first opened through the Manzhouli railway port, it took more than 7 years for the China-Europe train traffic to reach 10,000 trains, and only 3 years from 10,000 to 25,000 trains.

Domestic Macro Economy Index