Global Economic Insights and Key Events on May 31st
Latest Global Major Index
International Crude Price Trend and Exchange Rate of RMB to USD Trend
Domestic News
1. During his investigation in Xinjiang, Liu Guozhong emphasized that it is necessary to consolidate and expand the achievements of poverty alleviation and strengthen the conservation and efficient use of water resources
2. The real estate financing coordination mechanism has been accelerated, and the ten conditions for the "white list" to be shortlisted are clear
3. China successfully launched a Pakistani multi-task communication satellite
4. The rebound in copper prices faded, and the market is very vulnerable to price surges
5. 2.9L fuel consumption caused controversy. BYD's vice president responded: NEDC evaluation is closer to the actual domestic working conditions, and Geely doesn’t evaluate
International News
1. The dollar weakened further after the release of U.S. economic activity and employment data
2. Russia launched the "Progress MS-27" cargo spacecraft
3. U.S. GDP growth slowed down, spending and inflation both declined
4. Even if wages grow and inflation is higher than expected, the Bank of England may start cutting interest rates
5. MSCI Chief Research Officer: The AI track of U.S. stocks is crowded, but the "bubble" has not reappeared
Domestic News
1. During his investigation in Xinjiang, Liu Guozhong emphasized that it is necessary to consolidate and expand the achievements of poverty alleviation and strengthen the conservation and efficient use of water resources
On May 30, Liu Guozhong, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, visited Xinjiang from the 28th to the 30th. He stressed that it is necessary to thoroughly study and implement General Secretary Xi Jinping's important expositions on the "three rural" work and water control, conscientiously implement the deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, focus on consolidating and expanding the achievements of poverty alleviation, strengthen the construction of water conservancy infrastructure, and provide a strong guarantee for comprehensively promoting rural revitalization and accelerating the construction of an agricultural power. (Xinhua News Agency)
2. The real estate financing coordination mechanism has been accelerated, and the ten conditions for the "white list" to be shortlisted are clear
On May 30, the implementation of the "white list" of real estate project financing for 4 months has been clear, and the implementation is accelerating. According to the agency source, at present, the project to be declared to enter the "white list" needs to meet the five basic conditions of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the five requirements of the State Administration of Financial Regulation, also known as the "5+5" financing evaluation conditions. Among them, in addition to the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development's "project is under construction" and "the pre-sale funds have not been diverted", etc., the requirements put forward by the State Administration of Financial Supervision also include the completion of four certificates, no seizure and freezing, no debt evasion, etc. According to the views of a number of interviewed experts, the "5+5" condition effectively distinguishes and isolates project risks from enterprise risks, corporate risks and group risks, which is conducive to accurately supporting and solving the difficult problems of real estate financing, especially in the continuation of construction projects, and better helping to promote the work of "guaranteeing the delivery of buildings" and "guaranteeing the delivery of housing". (CBN)
3. China successfully launched a Pakistani multi-task communication satellite
On May 30, China successfully launched a Pakistan multi-mission communications satellite using a Long March-3B carrier rocket at the Xichang Satellite Launch Center, and the satellite successfully entered the predetermined orbit, and the launch mission was a complete success. (CCTV News)
4. The rebound in copper prices faded, and the market is very vulnerable to price surges
Copper price fell 3.3% to $10,125 a tonne as bearish pressure subsided. SP Angel said copper had retreated from record highs over the past week, when limited copper inventories in the COMEX primary metals futures and options market triggered a short squeeze. Shortages and panic buying at some major trading institutions have reportedly pushed copper prices to record levels, peaking at $11,104.5 on May 20, SP Angel analysts said in a note. SP Angel said that while end-user demand for copper remains relatively subdued, the recent rally has highlighted the vulnerability of global commodity markets to sudden price spikes.
5. 2.9L fuel consumption caused controversy. BYD's vice president responded: NEDC evaluation is closer to the actual domestic working conditions, and Geely doesn’t evaluate
BYD Qin LDM-i was officially launched. According to the official introduction, thanks to the fifth-generation DM technology platform engine equipped with the highest thermal efficiency of 46.06% on the new car, the fuel consumption of the Qin LDM-i NEDC loss of 100 kilometers is only 2.9L, and the comprehensive cruising range reaches more than 2,100 kilometers. Since then, some netizens have questioned that BYD's fuel consumption data does not adopt the WLTC test standard. In this regard, Yang Dongsheng, senior vice president of BYD Group and chief designer of DM technology, publicly responded: "NEDC (that is, the European endurance test standard) is relatively more scientific to evaluate fuel consumption, and it is a working condition that is closer to the people. Geely Automobile said in an interview: "We do not make any comments on netizens' reports of BYD (2.9L fuel consumption). But for Geely, it's about sticking to the right things and the real things. (Per warp)
International News
1. The dollar weakened further after the release of U.S. economic activity and employment data
After data showed that the U.S. economy could cool down. The US dollar weakened along with US Treasury yields. Q1 GDP growth was revised down to 1.3% from 1.6% expected, while weekly jobless claims rose higher than expected to 219,000 from a revised 216,000. The prospect that U.S. interest rates will remain higher than in other developed economies has been supporting the dollar, but today's data is likely to at least dampen expectations of another rate hike.
2. Russia launched the "Progress MS-27" cargo spacecraft
The website of the Russian State Space Corporation announced on May 30 that Russia launched the "Progress MS-27" cargo spacecraft on the same day to deliver goods to the International Space Station. According to the source, at 12:42 Moscow time (17:42 Beijing time) on the 30th, the "Progress MS-27" cargo spacecraft lifted off from the Baikonur cosmodrome in Kazakhstan on the "Soyuz-2.1a" carrier rocket and successfully entered the predetermined orbit. The spacecraft is expected to dock with the Russian module "Search" module of the ISS on June 1.
3. US GDP growth slowed down, spending and inflation both declined
Data released on Thursday showed that U.S. real GDP in the first quarter came in at an annualized revised 1.3%, down from the previous preliminary reading of 1.6%, reflecting weaker-than-expected consumer spending. Personal spending, the main engine of growth for the US economy, grew by 2.0 percent, compared with a preliminary reading of 2.5 percent. On the inflation front, the Fed favored the US PCE price index for Q1 with an annualized revision of 3.3%, slightly lower than the initial forecast of 3.4%. Excluding food and energy, the core PCE price index in the United States recorded an annualized revision of 3.6% in the first quarter, which was also lower than the previous forecast of 3.7%. Today's numbers underscore that the U.S. economy is losing momentum from 2024 onwards after a sustained unexpected rise in 2023. High interest rates, pandemic-era savings and slower income growth are some of the key factors affecting U.S. households and businesses.
4. Even if wages grow and inflation is higher than expected, the Bank of England may start cutting interest rates
Wood, chief UK economist at Panson Macros, said in a note that the Bank of England could start cutting interest rates in August, even if wage growth and inflation levels in the UK remain above the Bank of England's 2% inflation target. "The MPC believes that interest rates will remain restrictive after the rate cut, so it can start easing policy while wage growth and underlying inflation remain well below the target consistent rate." Refinitiv data shows that the market is now pricing in a roughly 50% chance of a rate cut by the Bank of England in September, with the possibility of a rate cut in November almost fully priced in.
5. MSCI Chief Research Officer: The AI track of U.S. stocks is crowded, but the "bubble" has not reappeared
"AI is everywhere, and one of the biggest trends in 2024 is the continued development of artificial intelligence." Ashley Lester, chief research officer at MSCI, said that in the short term, AI concept stocks will continue to lead, and their performance provides support for high valuations; In the medium and long term, artificial intelligence technology has gradually entered the landing stage at the enterprise level. Lester said that through the MSCI stock crowding model and other measurements, some stocks related to artificial intelligence do show signs of "crowding". "Does the congestion of the AI track mean that there is a bubble in it? Not necessarily, the high valuations of AI stocks are not entirely out of touch with fundamentals. At the same time, he mentioned that there is no evidence that there is a similar situation in the field of artificial intelligence to the Internet bubble of the 90s of the 20th century. (Yicai)
Domestic Macro Economy Index
