The completed area of domestic real estate peaked and fell, and the PVC market rebounded recently
Affected by the overhaul and recovery of calcium carbide enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Shandong, etc., the operating level of the PVC industry rebounded to 82.17%. However, the overhaul of production equipment in May is relatively concentrated, and some output will be lost. There are still positive expectations in the market, and the supply of goods is expected to be gradually tightened.
According to monitoring, the inventory of PVC manufacturers in the warehouse increased by about 3% month-on-month, the pre-sale orders decreased by about 8% month-on-month due to the impact of the festival, the pre-sale declined, and the feedback was poor.
The number of Americans filing initial jobless claims for the week ending April 30 recorded 200,000, the highest since the week ending February 12, 2022. The agency believes that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week, but remained at a level consistent with a tightening labor market and further increases in wages.
On May 5, local time, German Bundestag, Pelmann, the left-wing party's Eastern Affairs Commissioner, criticized the attitude of the federal government to support EU sanctions. He said the price of supporting the sanctions plan was sacrificing the interests of eastern Germany, which was a "western decision made by the western government." Perlmann pointed out that the oil embargo will be a powder keg for German society, especially for eastern Germany. It is a naive and wrong decision to include the oil embargo as one of the sanctions, which is a sanction for Germany. The damage itself will be higher than the impact on Russia.
Institutional point of view
The poor performance of the international equity market overnight has a certain drag on the overall commodity sentiment. Fundamentally, currently in the spring maintenance period, the pressure on PVC supply is not obvious. On the demand side, the current downstream construction has not fully recovered, and the epidemic is still disrupting the demand side. From a long-term perspective, the completed area of ??domestic real estate has peaked and declined, which is obviously bad for the back-end variety of real estate. In terms of valuation, the price of calcium carbide is low, the profit of PVC production is good, and the valuation of V is high. On the whole, the recent rebound in the market is mainly due to the relaxation of logic in trading real estate, but the recovery of demand is likely to be less than expected. In the transaction, it is still recommended to continue to hold the 8900 first-line empty orders of the previous 09 contract.
The operating rate of PVC has increased, the operating rate of calcium carbide has declined, and the profit of PVC has remained at a good level. In early May, the amount of PVC maintenance dropped, and in the middle and late May, PVC is expected to enter a centralized spring inspection, and the start of construction will have a large drop. The downstream of PVC has been greatly affected by the epidemic, and logistics in East China has recovered, but the downstream construction is still low, and the terminal demand in North China is insufficient. Demand in India and Southeast Asia has weakened recently, sea freight rates have remained high, and export demand has weakened marginally. Inventories have been flat in recent weeks and have gradually recovered to their average levels in previous years. The start of PVC construction has increased, and the supply is currently sufficient. There will be centralized maintenance in mid-to-late May; the epidemic has affected terminal demand, and the start of PVC downstream products has not yet resumed; export demand has weakened; inventory is flat. The fundamentals continue to be bearish. At present, the main variable is the demand affected by the epidemic. The PVC construction started to decline in the middle and late May. It is expected that the supply side will give PVC some support.
