Caustic soda: Liquid caustic soda market rose and fell differently, flake caustic soda market rose slightly in some parts, and futures prices were sideways(December 25, 2024)

Analysis of caustic soda futures: Opening price of SH2505 contract on December 25: 2780, highest price: 2790, lowest price: 2750, position: 101254, settlement price: 2766, settlement price 2764 yesterday, increase: 2, closing price: 2761, daily trading volume: 145,000 lots, deposited funds: 1.342 billion, capital outflow: 35.55 million.

Caustic soda market price:

Caustic soda spot analysis: Today, the caustic soda market showed a differentiated trend, with different trends in the liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda markets, with liquid caustic soda market rising and falling differently, and flake caustic soda market rising slightly in some parts. From the perspective of market price adjustments in various regions, the price of 32% ion membrane caustic soda in some areas was reduced by 20 yuan/ton, and in some areas it was increased by 30 yuan/ton. The price of 99% flake caustic soda was raised by 20 yuan/ton in some areas, and the price range of other concentrations of caustic soda did not change significantly. Specifically, the price of liquid caustic soda market rose and fell differently. The price in Hebei region was stable with a slight decline, mainly affected by the downward adjustment in Shandong and East China at the beginning of the week, and the lack of enthusiasm of downstream traders in the region to accept goods, and some manufacturers lowered their quotations; there was a slight increase in South China, mainly due to the small amount of sea caustic soda arriving in Guangdong in recent days and the tight supply in the market. Today, the market price of flake caustic soda rose slightly in some areas. The main manufacturers in the northwest region raised the quotation of new orders this week, and most manufacturers in other regions kept their quotations stable, and the overall wait-and-see sentiment in the market remained unchanged. In some areas, due to the tight pick-up and the obstruction of logistics in the region, the supply was tight, which provided certain support to the market price, but the downstream demand did not show a significant improvement, and most manufacturers were cautious in adjusting prices.

Analysis of caustic soda futures: The night trading price of caustic soda SH2505 contract showed a slight dive, and then showed a "W" trend. It rose to the intraday high in the late trading and then fell back; the price in the morning maintained a range of fluctuations and fell slightly in the late trading; the price in the afternoon fluctuated downward, fell to the intraday low and then rebounded. As of today's afternoon closing, the SH2505 contract fluctuated between 2750-2790 throughout the day, with a price difference of 40.05 contract reduced its position by 2270 lots, and the current position was 101254 lots.

Analysis of caustic soda index: According to Tuduoduo data, the domestic caustic soda index was 3049.37 on December 25, up 2.50, a range of 0.082%. The domestic caustic soda index rose.

Forecast for caustic soda market:
Spot: At present, the liquid caustic soda market is showing a differentiated trend of rising and falling. The Hebei region is stable with a decline, but there is a small increase in the South China region. There is no obvious change in other concentration alkali ranges. Hebei region was impacted by the previous decline in market prices in Shandong and East China, and the downstream in the region was not very enthusiastic about receiving goods, so the market price was weak and consolidated; the arrival of some manufacturers in South China was poor recently, and the tight supply in the market provided some support to the market price, and the market center of gravity moved up; in the traditional off-season, the demand side did not see a significant improvement, and the supply side may fluctuate, and it is expected that the liquid caustic soda market will stabilize in the short term. The flake caustic soda market rose slightly in some parts, and the new order quotations of the main manufacturers in the northwest region were slightly raised this week, and most manufacturers did not see significant fluctuations; the supply in some parts was tight, and the logistics in the region were blocked, so the supply of circulated goods was tight, which provided some positive support to the market price, but the downstream cautious wait-and-see sentiment remained, and it was expected that the flake caustic soda market price would be mainly in a narrow range in the short term, with limited fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the market transaction situation.