November 27th Macroeconomic Index:[Economic and Energy Trends] China's central bank MLF operation stabilizes the market, shale oil demonstration zone output breaks through, international attention is paid to electric vehicle tariffs and crude oil exports
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Domestic News
1. The central bank carried out 900 billion yuan MLF operation, with the highest bid interest rate of 2.30%, the lowest bid interest rate of 1.90%, and the winning bid interest rate remained flat at 2.00%
2. The central bank and other eight departments: jointly convened a meeting on the promotion of loans for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation
3. State Administration of Financial Regulation: Increase investment in key areas such as strategic emerging industries, advanced manufacturing, and new infrastructure
4. The State Administration for Market Regulation and the National Energy Administration shall establish a cross-departmental collaborative supervision mechanism
5. China's first national continental shale oil demonstration zone achieved an annual output of more than one million tons of shale oil
International News
1. The EU and China are close to reaching a solution on the removal of tariffs on imported electric vehicles imposed on China
2. Canadian provincial governors have requested an urgent meeting with the Prime Minister to discuss Canada-US relations
3. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December is 55.9%
4. Russia's seaborne crude oil exports fell the most since July
5. Iran's oil chief: Iran's daily natural gas production has increased by more than 25 million cubic meters
Domestic News
1. The central bank carried out 900 billion yuan MLF operation, with the highest bid interest rate of 2.30%, the lowest bid interest rate of 1.90%, and the winning bid interest rate remained flat at 2.00%
The central bank carried out 900 billion yuan MLF operation, with the highest bidding interest rate of 2.30%, the lowest bidding interest rate of 1.90%, and the winning bid interest rate remained unchanged at 2.00%. On the same day, the central bank also carried out a reverse repurchase operation of 249.3 billion yuan. On the same day, 172.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired, and 1.45 trillion yuan of MLF expired in November. Experts believe that the current conventional policy space such as RRR cuts is sufficient, taking into account short-term capital disturbances such as government bond issuance, as well as guiding financial institutions to increase support for the real economy and help "a good start", the RRR cut will not be ruled out around the end of the year.
2. The central bank and other eight departments: jointly convened a meeting on the promotion of loans for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation
The central bank and other 8 departments: jointly convened a meeting on the promotion of scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation loans, and all banking institutions should make good use of policy resources to "sign and invest as much as they can" for the enterprises and projects in the list. Develop loan products that better match the financing needs of start-up technology-based enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises for technological transformation, and tilt policies more towards private and small and medium-sized enterprises.
3. State Administration of Financial Regulation: Increase investment in key areas such as strategic emerging industries, advanced manufacturing, and new infrastructure
Recently, Li Yunze, Secretary of the Party Committee and Director of the State Administration of Financial Regulation, presided over a symposium on the high-quality development of the insurance industry to listen to relevant opinions and suggestions. He pointed out that the development of the insurance industry is closely related to the macro economy. Since the beginning of this year, China's economic operation has been generally stable and progressive, with new and old drivers continuing to transform, and high-quality development has been steadily promoted. In particular, since late September, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council have promptly launched a package of incremental policies to stabilize growth, and have played a set of "fixed punches", with major economic indicators such as consumption, service industry, import and export, and other major economic indicators rebounding significantly, various positive factors accumulating, and social expectations continuing to improve, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual economic and social development goals. We will give full play to the long-term investment advantages of insurance funds, continue to support major national strategies, and increase investment in key areas such as strategic emerging industries, advanced manufacturing, and new infrastructure, so as to better serve the development of new productive forces.
4. The State Administration for Market Regulation and the National Energy Administration shall establish a cross-departmental collaborative supervision mechanism
On November 25, the State Administration for Market Regulation and the National Energy Administration held a special meeting to establish a cross-departmental collaborative supervision mechanism in the energy field. The meeting made it clear that the two sides strengthened collaborative supervision and focused on five aspects of specific work: First, policy coordination. Strengthen the convergence of market supervision and energy industry regulatory policies, and jointly strengthen the research on key and difficult issues; Strengthen anti-monopoly compliance guidance and fair competition reviews, and listen to opinions and suggestions as needed when handling relevant cases and issuing relevant regulatory measures and guidelines. The second is joint inspection. Carry out joint inspections according to actual work needs, carry out special inspections in the energy field in a timely manner, and jointly carry out administrative guidance, so as to effectively enhance the influence and deterrence of regulatory law enforcement. The third is information sharing. Increase the sharing of information such as basic data, market data, administrative punishment information, and typical cases of market members in the energy field, and improve the utilization rate of information resources. Fourth, the transfer of clues. Strengthen law enforcement cooperation, and where leads on violations that fall within the scope of the other party's supervision are discovered in the course of law enforcement work, they are to be promptly handed over. Fifth, training and exchanges. Jointly organize law enforcement business training and corporate compliance training, strengthen international exchanges and cooperation, and learn from the beneficial experience of foreign market supervision and industry supervision convergence and integration.
5. China's first national continental shale oil demonstration zone achieved an annual output of more than one million tons of shale oil
China National Petroleum Corporation announced on the 26th that the cumulative output of China's first national-level continental shale oil demonstration zone, Xinjiang Jimsar National Continental Shale Oil Demonstration Zone, will exceed 1 million tons in 2024, becoming China's first national-level continental shale oil demonstration zone with an annual output of more than one million tons. At present, China has established three national shale oil demonstration zones, including Xinjiang Jimsar National Continental Shale Oil Demonstration Zone, Daqing Oilfield Gulong Continental Shale Oil National Demonstration Zone, and Shengli Jiyang Shale Oil National Demonstration Zone. In 2023, China's shale oil production exceeded 4 million tons, a record high.
International News
1. The EU and China are close to reaching a solution on the removal of tariffs on imported electric vehicles imposed on China
Bernd Lange, Chairman of the European Parliament's International Trade Committee, recently revealed that the European Union and China are close to reaching a solution on the cancellation of tariffs on imported electric vehicles imposed on China. Some analysts believe that Europe's release of such rhetoric at this time reflects its desire to reach an agreement with China as soon as possible.
2. Canadian provincial governors have requested an urgent meeting with the Prime Minister to discuss Canada-US relations
On the 25th local time, the Governors of Canadian provinces asked Prime Minister Trudeau to hold an emergency meeting to discuss Canada-US relations before US President-elect Trump took office. The President of the Canadian Federal Council (i.e., the Association of Provincial Governors) and the Governor of Ontario, Ford, sent a letter to Trudeau on the 25th saying that the provincial Governors want to be part of the Canadian team and participate in various matters such as trade, border security, energy, defense and cross-border supply chains. Ford also said the Governors wanted to know the federal government's approach to the 2026 U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement review. (CCTV News)
3. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December is 55.9%
According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability that the Fed will keep the current interest rate unchanged by December is 44.1%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 55.9%. The probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged by January next year is 33.7%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 53.1%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 13.2%.
4. Russia's seaborne crude oil exports fell the most since July
Russian seaborne crude exports fell by the most since July, with shipments falling to a two-month low due to a sharp drop in crude flows to the major buyer-India. As of Nov. 24, the four-week average of exports per day fell by about 150,000 barrels, the fourth decline in five weeks, although weekly exports rose slightly from the previous seven days. The decline in cargo volumes was mainly concentrated in the western ports of Russia, where cargo volumes fell by about 25% over the past two weeks compared to the average of the previous month. In the last week, there has been a five-day pause in the loading schedule in the port of Novorossiysk, probably related to repairs, affecting cargo from the Black Sea.
5. Iran's oil chief: Iran's daily natural gas production has increased by more than 25 million cubic meters
Iran's oil Minister said on Tuesday that the Ministry had succeeded in increasing production of unprocessed natural gas after identifying bottlenecks. After extensive planning, the Ministry of Petroleum has succeeded in increasing the average daily production of raw natural gas by more than 25 million cubic meters. In addition, the refinery's daily production of Mazut (heavy fuel oil) and diesel has increased by about 5 million liters to ensure a stable supply of power plants.
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