February 6th Global Macro Update: Key Economic Developments and Policy Changes
Latest Global Major Index
International Crude Price Trend and Exchange Rate of RMB to USD Trend
Domestic News
1. The State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration will further deploy and implement the work related to the coordination mechanism for urban real estate financing
2. The third meeting of the Sino-US Economic Working Group was held
3. The report shows that China is still an important investment destination for U.S. companies
4. The General Administration of Customs (GAC) promulgated the New Regulations on the Administration of Duty Exemption for Imported Goods in the Guangdong-Macao In-Depth Cooperation Zone in Hengqin
International News
1. The Bank of Canada may not cut interest rates in 2024
2. The slowdown in UK retail sales has put weak consumer confidence to the test
3. The U.S. military illegally stationed in Syria used 160 vehicles to steal Syrian oil and grain
4. The euro continues to be hit by the strength of the dollar
Domestic News
1. The State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration will further deploy and implement the work related to the coordination mechanism for urban real estate financing
On February 6, 2024, the State Administration of Financial Supervision held a special meeting to further deploy and implement the work related to the coordination mechanism for urban real estate financing. The meeting required that all commercial banks should take the initiative to connect with the coordination mechanism, review the list of real estate projects in a timely manner, speed up the approval of credit, and achieve "full satisfaction" for reasonable financing needs. All commercial banks should establish a special working mechanism internally, optimize the loan approval process, refine the provisions on due diligence and exemption, and guide and urge all branches to strengthen the investigation of real estate projects in their jurisdictions, so as to fully grasp the situation. Matters that need to be resolved through coordination should be reported to the Coordination Mechanism in a timely manner and resolved through a timely manner.
2. The third meeting of the Sino-US Economic Working Group was held
On February 5 and 6, the third meeting of the China-US Economic Working Group was held in Beijing, and Finance Minister Lan Foan attended the meeting and had a brief exchange with the US side. The meeting was co-chaired by Vice Minister of the Treasury Liao Min and US Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Chambaugh, and attended by relevant departments of the economic fields of the two countries. In accordance with the three-point consensus reached at the San Francisco Summit, China and the United States conducted in-depth, candid, pragmatic and constructive exchanges on the macroeconomic situation and policies of the two countries, G20 financial cooperation, developing countries' debt, industrial policies and other issues. The Chinese side expressed concern over the US imposition of tariffs on China, two-way investment restrictions, and sanctions against Chinese companies. The two sides agreed to continue to communicate.
3. The report shows that China is still an important investment destination for U.S. companies
According to a recent survey released by the American Chamber of Commerce in China, 50% of U.S. companies surveyed still rank China as the world's top or top three investment destinations. The survey of AmCham China member companies was conducted from October to November 2023 and involved 343 U.S. companies. According to the report, the majority of companies surveyed will remain in China, with 77% saying they have no plans to move production or sourcing out of China. About half of the companies surveyed said they would keep their investment in China unchanged in 2024, and nearly 40% said they planned to increase their investment in China in 2024, considering the Chinese market as a strategic priority for their enterprises and optimistic about the rapid growth momentum of China's economy as their primary considerations for capital increase.
4. The General Administration of Customs (GAC) promulgated the New Regulations on the Administration of Duty Exemption for Imported Goods in the Guangdong-Macao In-Depth Cooperation Zone in Hengqin
On 6 February, the General Administration of Customs formulated and promulgated the Administrative Measures of the Customs of the People's Republic of China for the Duty-free Exemption of Imported Goods in the Guangdong-Macao In-Depth Cooperation Zone in Hengqin, in order to implement the Overall Plan for the Construction of the Guangdong-Macao In-Depth Cooperation Zone in Hengqin. According to the document, duty-free importers are exempt from import duties, import value-added tax and consumption tax on machinery and equipment and infrastructure materials imported by duty-free importers through the ports open to the outside world between the Guangdong-Macao In-Depth Cooperation Zone in Hengqin and the Macao Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China.
International News
1. The Bank of Canada may not cut interest rates in 2024
Scotiabank believes that given Canada's economic growth and inflation dynamics, central bankers may not cut interest rates at all this year. Their base case does expect a rate cut, but it won't be until the end of the third quarter and only 0.75 percentage points by the end of the year, but the recent upward revision of growth forecasts is problematic for policymakers. The underlying inflation index tracked by the Bank of Canada accelerated to nearly 4% at the end of 2023, wage growth remains incompatible with the 2% inflation target, and a large amount of pent-up housing demand remains a concern.
2. The slowdown in UK retail sales has put weak consumer confidence to the test
Scott, head of investment at Interactive Investor, said in a note that the British Retail Association's data on a slowdown in UK retail sales in January had put the optimism surrounding the Christmas season to a brutal reality test. "While 2024 may be a year of interest rate cuts and real income growth, consumers are still grappling with much higher prices and higher mortgages than they did just a few years ago. This has led to a decline in consumer confidence and reduced spending. Scott noted that the current environment is creating a gap in the retail sector, with luxury and certain discretionary retailers struggling, while grocers such as Tesco continue to thrive.
3. The U.S. military illegally stationed in Syria used 160 vehicles to steal Syrian oil and grain
The Syrian National News Agency reported on the 6th local time that the illegal stationing of US troops in Syria has recently stepped up the theft of Syria's national wealth, mainly oil and grain. In the past 24 hours, the U.S. military has used 160 vehicles to steal oil and food from Syria and transport supplies to Iraq through the Waleed and Mahmoudi illegal border crossings.
4. The euro continues to be hit by the strength of the dollar
Michael Brown, market analyst at online broker Pepperstone, said the euro continues to be hit by a stronger dollar, with the euro trading near its lowest level against the dollar since mid-December last year. "Despite the better-than-expected German factory orders data, the outlook for the Eurozone economy remains rather bleak," he said.
Domestic Macro Economy Index
