January 30th Macroeconomic Index: Chinese Equity Funds See Largest Inflow Since July 2015, Middle East Tensions Boost Oil Prices
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International Crude Price Trend and Exchange Rate of RMB to USD Trend
Domestic News
1. Bank of America: Chinese equity funds have seen inflows of $11.9 billion in the past week, the largest scale since July 2015
2. Since the beginning of this year, the total amount of fund dividends has been 12.748 billion yuan, an increase of 38.11% year-on-year
3. More than 140 million train tickets have been sold during the Spring Festival travel period
4. The People's Bank of China's reverse repurchase operation achieved a net investment of 378 billion yuan on the same day
International News
1. The situation in the Middle East escalated, and oil prices opened more than 1% higher on Monday
2. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this week is 97.9%
3. The US military was attacked by drones at a base in Jordan, 3 were killed and 25 were injured
4. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan said the euro would be a candidate currency for interest arbitrage
Domestic News
1. Bank of America: Chinese equity funds have seen inflows of $11.9 billion in the past week, the largest amount since July 2015
Emerging market equity fund inflows reached a record $12.1 billion in the week ended Jan. 24, Bank of America reported, citing EPFR data. China equity funds attracted $11.9 billion in inflows for the week, the largest scale since July 2015 and the second largest in history. Global equity funds attracted $17.6 billion in inflows, while U.S. equity funds saw inflows of $5.3 billion and European equity funds saw outflows of $1.9 billion for the fourth consecutive week.
2. Since the beginning of this year, the total amount of fund dividends has been 12.748 billion yuan, an increase of 38.11% year-on-year
According to the data, as of January 29, the number of funds that have announced dividends or implemented dividends this year has reached 457, of which 397 dividend funds have been implemented, involving 397 funds, compared with 292 funds in the same period last year, with a total of 292 dividends. The total dividends increased from 9.23 billion yuan to 12.748 billion yuan, an increase of 38.11%. Among the 397 funds participating in dividends, 325 were bond funds, accounting for 81.86%, and 17 were equity funds, accounting for 4.28%.
3. More than 140 million train tickets have been sold during the Spring Festival travel period
It was learned from the Railway 12306 Science and Technology Innovation Center that on January 28, Railway 12306 began to sell tickets for February 11 (the second day of the Lunar New Year), and a total of 16.058 million tickets were sold by railways across the country. Since the launch of railway Spring Festival ticketing on January 12, a total of nearly 280 million train tickets have been sold, including 143.505 million tickets during the Spring Festival, a year-on-year increase of 107.2%. Railway 12306 sold 20.901 million tickets in a single day, and the highest number of visits in a single day reached 83.88 billion.
4. The People's Bank of China's reverse repurchase operation achieved a net investment of 378 billion yuan on the same day
The People's Bank of China launched a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 500 billion yuan today, because 122 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase expired today, and a net investment of 378 billion yuan was realized on the same day.
International News
1. The situation in the Middle East escalated, and oil prices opened more than 1% higher on Monday
Gold and crude oil opened stronger on Monday as tensions escalated in the Middle East. Brent crude oil prices rose 1.3% at one point, WTI crude rose 1%, and spot gold and silver gapped. Militants killed three U.S. troops and wounded 25 others in a drone strike near the Syrian border on Sunday, the first time Americans have been killed in an enemy attack since the new round of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. U.S. President Joe Biden said in a statement: "We will hold all those responsible accountable at the time we choose and in the way we choose." "According to people familiar with the matter, the U.S. government believes it is necessary to take a stronger response than before. In addition, Houthi militants attacked an oil tanker transporting Russian fuel on behalf of Trafigura last Friday with missiles.
2. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this week is 97.9%
According to CME's "Fed Watch": the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50% in February is 97.9%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 2.1%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged by March is 51.9%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 47.1%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 1.0%.
3. The US military was attacked by drones at a base in Jordan, 3 were killed and 25 were injured
According to CNN, on January 28, local time, the U.S. Central Command confirmed in a statement that a drone attacked a U.S. military base in northeastern Jordan near the Syrian border, killing three U.S. soldiers and injuring 25 others. According to reports, this is the first time since the new round of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict that US soldiers have been killed in an attack in the Middle East. According to two U.S. officials, at least 34 U.S. military personnel in the attack are being evaluated for traumatic brain injuries, and the number of injured U.S. troops is likely to increase further, and some injured U.S. troops have been evacuated from the base for further treatment. U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin responded to the incident by saying that the United States will take necessary actions to defend its interests.
4. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan said the euro would be a candidate currency for interest arbitrage
Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan believe that Europe is expected to cut interest rates, and the euro is a prime candidate for the interest arbitrage trade currency. The two agencies recommend borrowing the euro and buying a riskier and higher-yielding currency. Allspring Global Investments is also betting on a fall in the euro against the US dollar. With traders more inclined to believe that Japan will raise interest rates, they are looking for an alternative to the yen.
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