As of the close of Friday on the futures market, the methanol contract has slightly reduced its position today, with 5,161 positions in the weighted methanol contract and 4,966 positions in the 05 main contract. The weighted contract, the intraday trend, fluctuated downward throughout the day, closing down 0.8% overall.

The RU2405 month contract opened this week at 13,800 points, with a maximum of 13,950 points and a minimum of 13,635 points. It closed at 13,875 points, an increase of 105 points, with a trading volume of 1,025,916 hands and an open interest of 160,139 hands.

The demand for coke continues to weaken, inventories in the lower reaches of the industrial chain continue to rise, and steel mills are strongly willing to lower coke prices. This week, the second round of coke shipments has landed. The closing price of quasi-first-class wet quenching coke in Rizhao Port is 2,340 yuan/ton, and the ex-warehouse price is 2,300 yuan/ton. tons, equivalent to a warehouse receipt cost of about 2,510 yuan/ton. After the second round of coke price cuts, the main coke contract is still at a slight discount.

From a fundamental point of view, the start-up in mainland China is basically stable. This week, the average start-up rate of Zhuochuang methanol is 71.35%, and the start-up rate in northwest China is 82.72%, a slight increase from last week. Jiutai Tuoketuo's 2 million tons/year methanol unit will be installed in January 2024. It was shut down from January 5th to 11th. Shaanxi Weihua's 400,000-ton unit started maintenance for seven days on the 10th. Southwest gas plants restarted on the 25th, Jiuyuan and Sichuanwei on the 25th and 9th respectively.

On January 23rd, key developments included GCL Group's bid win for a 1.56GW N-type module project, Shandong's 2024 GDP growth target of over 5%, and Poland securing EU concessions to restrict Ukrainian grain imports. Additionally, declining nickel prices put global producers under pressure, and a fire suspended operations at Novatek's UST-Luga facility in Russia.

On January 22nd, Xinjiang Khorgos Port set a new record with 41.784 million tons of import and export freight. Guangdong supports Nansha's financial expansion, while Shanghai's shipping market sees a decline in booking prices. Internationally, the RMB surpassed the USD in Moscow Exchange trading volumes, and Microsoft and OpenAI face potential antitrust investigations.

On January 19th, the domestic macro economy displayed stability and progress, with positive outlooks on consumption trends and significant lithium resource discoveries in Sichuan. The National Bureau of Statistics remains optimistic about 2024 consumption, while Shengxin Lithium Energy made a major breakthrough in lithium exploration. Additionally, the Anhui Province saw RMB loan increments exceed one trillion yuan in 2023, and the National Development and Reform Commission plans to expand new energy vehicle consumption.

On January 19th, the National Bureau of Statistics expressed optimism about China's 2024 consumption trend, citing stable trade and low government debt. Internationally, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to halt interest rate hikes, while oil prices fell due to a stronger dollar. Domestic macroeconomic indicators show stability, with a focus on continued policy support and trade optimization.

On January 17th, domestic news highlights include improvements in patent examination standards for new technologies and Guangxi's strong import and export performance. Internationally, oil prices remain stable despite Red Sea tensions, and the dollar rises as traders reassess interest rate cut bets.

On January 16th, key economic indicators showed mixed trends globally. Domestically, China's MLF operations continued at 995 billion yuan, with potential RRR and interest rate cuts in Q2. Internationally, the Red Sea situation escalated, impacting container shipping indices, while the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut bets increased, driving gold prices. The ECB is expected to cut rates four times this year.

On January 12th, China's CPI fell 0.3% YoY and PPI fell 2.7% YoY. Expectations for interest rate cuts in January are growing, and the RRR may be lowered post-Spring Festival. The NDRC launched the seventh batch of major foreign-funded projects. Internationally, the Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index saw its largest weekly decline since 2008, and tensions in the Red Sea are pushing up global shipping prices.

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