January 31st, 2024: Key Developments in Domestic and International Macro Economy
Daily Macro Economy News
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International Crude Price Trend and Exchange Rate of RMB to USD Trend
Domestic News
1. China Council for the Promotion of International Trade: In the fourth quarter of 2023, the satisfaction of surveyed foreign-funded enterprises with China's business environment continued to increase
2. The Ministry of Civil Affairs and other 12 departments jointly issued the "Opinions on Strengthening the Construction of the Pension Service Talent Team"
3. The National Blockchain Innovation Application Pilot Summary and Exchange Meeting was held in Chongqing
4. National Bureau of Statistics: In 2023, the turnover of enterprises above designated size in cultural and related industries increased by 8.2%
International News
1. Japan's job market is still tight, and there is still hope for wage increases
2. ANZ: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has not yet sent a dovish signal and a rate hike is still possible next month
3. Hamas officials say they seek a "complete ceasefire" rather than a "temporary truce"
4. The United States said it would not seek war with Iran, but would take action
Domestic News
1. China Council for the Promotion of International Trade: In the fourth quarter of 2023, the satisfaction of surveyed foreign-funded enterprises with China's business environment continued to increase
The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade held a press conference today (30th), and Yang Fan, spokesman of the CCPIT, introduced that on the whole, in the fourth quarter of 2023, the satisfaction of the surveyed foreign-funded enterprises with China's business environment continued to increase, and the proportion of satisfaction evaluation and above satisfaction evaluation of all indicators increased compared with the third quarter. From the perspective of market expectations, nearly 70% of the surveyed foreign-funded enterprises are still optimistic about the Chinese market situation in the next five years, an increase of about 1.8 percentage points month-on-month, and more than 90% of the surveyed foreign-funded enterprises believe that the attractiveness of the Chinese market has increased or remained unchanged.
2. The Ministry of Civil Affairs and other 12 departments jointly issued the "Opinions on Strengthening the Construction of the Pension Service Talent Team"
The Ministry of Civil Affairs, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Education, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the Ministry of Commerce, the National Health Commission, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the State Administration of Taxation, and the National Office on Aging recently jointly issued the "Opinions on Strengthening the Construction of Pension Service Talent Team". The "Opinions" make it clear that by 2025, the scale of the senior service talent team focusing on the skilled talents of the elderly service will be further expanded, and the quality will be steadily improved, the structure will be continuously optimized, and the leading and supporting role of talents in the high-quality development of the elderly service will be significantly enhanced; By 2035, the policy environment, industry environment and social environment that support the development of senior service talents will continue to improve, and the training, use, evaluation and incentive system and mechanism of senior service talents will be more mature and finalized.
3. The National Blockchain Innovation Application Pilot Summary and Exchange Meeting was held in Chongqing
On January 29, the National Blockchain Innovation Application Pilot Summary and Exchange Conference was held in Chongqing, and Wang Song, Deputy Director of the Central Cyberspace Administration and Deputy Director of the State Cyberspace Administration of China, attended the meeting and made a speech. The meeting emphasized that it is necessary to strengthen tracking and judgment, accurately grasp the new trends and challenges of the application and development of blockchain technology, grasp the key points of work, adhere to innovation-driven, systematic planning, demand-oriented, collaborative linkage, and standardized development, and solidly promote the innovation and development of blockchain to a new level. In the next step, it is necessary to conscientiously implement the decision-making and deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council on the innovation and development of blockchain, strengthen overall coordination, improve the top-level design, conscientiously summarize experience, consolidate the foundation for development, strengthen coordination and linkage, strengthen the industrial ecology, strengthen publicity and guidance, create a good atmosphere, and effectively implement the work of blockchain innovation and development, and promote the construction of a network power to create a new situation and achieve new practical results.
4. National Bureau of Statistics: In 2023, the turnover of enterprises above designated size in cultural and related industries increased by 8.2%
According to a survey of 73,000 cultural and related industry enterprises above designated size across the country, in 2023, cultural enterprises achieved turnover of 12.9515 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.2% over the previous year on a comparable basis. Among them, the 16 industry sub-categories with obvious characteristics of new cultural formats achieved operating income of 5239.5 billion yuan, an increase of 15.3% over the previous year, 7.1 percentage points faster than that of all cultural enterprises above designated size. By type of industry, the cultural manufacturing industry achieved an operating income of 4096.2 billion yuan, an increase of 0.6 percent over the previous year, a cultural wholesale and retail trade of 2081.4 billion yuan, an increase of 6.1 percent, and a cultural service industry of 6773.9 billion yuan, an increase of 14.1 percent.
International News
1. Japan's job market is still tight, and there is still hope for wage increases
Japan's labor market showed further signs of tightness in December, driven by manpower shortages in a number of industries. This development is under close scrutiny as companies begin annual wage negotiations with trade unions. The unemployment rate fell to 2.4% in December, the lowest since January last year, while the talents-seeking and job-seeking ratio fell to 1.27 from 1.28, lower than market expectations. In its quarterly outlook last week, the Bank of Japan said that "the growth rate of scheduled cash income (wages) is likely to continue to rise steadily, reflecting rising prices and continued tightness in labor market conditions." Economist Taro Kimura said the labor market is expected to continue to tighten gradually, with manufacturers likely to continue to hire aggressively, while other businesses in the retail and service sectors will increase hiring as slowing inflation stimulates consumer demand.
2. ANZ: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has not yet sent a dovish signal and a rate hike is still possible next month
ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner said the RBNZ was not signalling a dovish turn. In his recent speech, RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway focused on the flow of economic data. He said that while the situation is moving in the right direction, the fight against inflation is far from over, given that New Zealand inflation is still higher than the Fed's forecast. Zollner added that ANZ continues to forecast the RBNZ to cut interest rates from August, but still believes a rate hike is likely next month.
3. Hamas officials say they seek a "complete ceasefire" rather than a "temporary truce"
Tahir Nunu, a media adviser to Hamas, said on January 29 local time that after Qatar said it was proposing a framework for a temporary ceasefire, Hamas hopes to achieve a "complete and comprehensive ceasefire" in Gaza, rather than a "temporary truce", and once the fighting stops, the rest of the details can be discussed, including the release of detainees. Earlier in the day, Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman said that CIA Director William Burns and senior security officials from Israel and Egypt had reached an agreement on a phased truce at a meeting in Paris. Mohammed confirmed that under the agreement, the detained women and children will be released first and aid will also be sent to the besieged Gaza Strip.
4. The United States said it would not seek war with Iran, but would take action
According to the Times of Israel, a day after the militant group killed three U.S. soldiers and wounded dozens people, the U.S. Department of Defense said it did not believe that Iran was seeking war with the United States, and the United States did not want to go to war. U.S. Defense Department spokeswoman Sabrina Singh accused Iran of supporting groups attacking the United States, saying the recent attacks carried the "footprint" of the Iranian-backed Kataib Allah party. “We do not seek war, but we will act and respond to attacks against our army," Singh said.
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